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First Summer 2026 Heat Wave: How PJM's Fuel Mix Responded

The first major U.S. heat wave of summer 2026 pushed a heat dome across the Central and Eastern U.S. in the days around July 4th, with temperatures regularly above 100°F. Hourly midday load on PJM, the nation’s largest grid operator, peaked near 160 GW, approaching the all-time record of 165,563 MW set in 2006.

The incremental supply came almost entirely from dispatchable generation. Nuclear, coal, and natural gas delivered 88% of the total, and the ramp concentrated in the two fuels that can be called on demand: coal rose from 14.3 to 24.2 GW (up roughly 69%) week-over-week, and gas from 43.6 to 55.0 GW (up 26%). Solar and wind held flat at 7.5 GW. The load event also triggered DOE’s third Section 202(c) emergency order of 2026, waiving plant emissions limits as wholesale prices topped $2,000/MWh.

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2026 Charts

  1. First Summer 2026 Heat Wave: How PJM’s Fuel Mix Responded
  2. Natural Gas Inventories in Northern Latitudes: A midyear review 
  3. U.S. Crude Inventories, Strategic and Commercial, in the wake of Hormuz
  4. LLM Solves 80 year old Math Problem: Potential Research Speedups from AI

  5. Shifts in U.S. Jet Fuel Prices and Commercial Air Travel

  6. U.S. Energy Intensity 1949-2025
  7. Natural Gas Exports Surpass Soybeans in Importance for Reducing U.S. Trade Deficit 
  8. U.S. Diesel Prices and Shifts in Truck-Hauled Freight – Revisited in view of Hormuz
  9. U.S. Gasoline Prices: Strait of Hormuz Closure vs. the Renewable Fuel Standard
  10. Strait of Hormuz Closure: Gasoline and U.S. Fuel Prices
  11. Strait of Hormuz Closure: The Arithmetic of the Crude Shortfall after Five Weeks of Policy
  12. Strait of Hormuz Closure: Helium and Semiconductor Manufacturing 
  13. Strait of Hormuz Closure: Nitrogen Based Fertilizers and Disruptions to Food Security
  14. Strait of Hormuz Closure: Qatari LNG Curtailment and the Global Gas Market
  15. Strait of Hormuz Closure: Tanker Traffic, Benchmark Prices, and Inventory
  16. Iranian Petroleum Exports Under Shifting U.S. Sanctions Regimes — Revisited
  17. U.S. LNG Export Capacity: Operating and Under Construction
  18. European Natural Gas stores during Winter 2025-26

  19. The Renewable Fuel Standard: Cost to Consumers – Revisited

  20. New England Runs on Diesel during Emergencies 
  21. Power Generation during Winter Storm Fern
  22. The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) – Ethanol Blend Rates
  23. Venezuela: U.S. Crude Oil Imports (Context) and Diluent Availability

  24. U.S. Crude Oil Imports from Venezuela under shifting sanctions regimes

2025 Charts

  1. Into 2026-the Key Challenges Determining the Future of the U.S. Electricity Grid
  2. The U.S. Lubricants Market — Supply and Demand 
  3. Impact of Recent U.S. and EU sanctions on Russian Urals Crude Oil Price
  4. Three Views on Global Nuclear Generation 
  5. Russian Gas Dependence in 3SI Region is Being Mitigated by U.S. LNG
  6. Nuclear Power Dominates French Electricity Generation
  7. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve at 50 + 2 Years

  8. The Renewable Fuel Standard: Cost to Consumers

  9. Changes in Electricity Prices Over 20 Years

  10. Displacing European Energy Imports from Russia with U.S. Exports – The Case of Petroleum Products
  11. Displacing European Energy Imports from Russia with U.S. Exports – The Case of Crude Oil
  12. U.S. LNG Exports and European Natural Gas Imports — Note the Complementarity
  13. Carbon Dioxide Contribution of New U.S. Gas-Fired Baseload Plants to Global Emissions (2025-2050)
  14. Endangerment Finding Series: Medium-Duty Vehicles
  15. Global Impact of CO2 Emissions from New U.S. Light-Duty Vehicles
  16. New Federal Onshore Lower 48 Leases Issued During Biden and First Trump Administrations
  17. Lower 48 Crude Oil Production Efficiency Gains are Growing Exponentially 
  18. U.S. Rig Counts and Crude Oil Prices
  19. The Renewable Fuel Standard: Costs to Refiners
  20. 2025 U.S. Summer Gasoline Prices: Where’s The Spike?
  21. The First 2025 U.S. Summer Heat Wave and Power Generation

  22. Mideast Military Aggression, Hormuz Strait Tanker Traffic, and Crude Oil Prices

  23. A Mid-2025 Review: Natural Gas in Europe and Ukraine – Three Views

  24. U.S. Summer Residential Electricity Trends: Three Views

  25. The April 2025 Iberian Peninsula Power Failure: Overview And Some Considerations

  26. LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) Trade Lowers U.S. Trade Deficit

  27. Shale Production Has Revived Argentina’s Oil and Natural Gas Output

  28. Energy Trade Positively Impacts the U.S. Trade Balance

  29. Fuel Cost per Mile in California
  30. California EV Mandate: Ambition vs. Reality

  31. The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and Transportation Fuel Prices – Revisited

  32. Global Lithium Requirements of Select U.S. BEV Manufacturers

  33. Dallas Fed Survey: U.S. Crude Oil Production Costs Are Rising – Revisited

  34. History of Oil Production Forecasts Shows Consistent Underestimate

  35. Abatements to Additional U.S. Pipeline Capacity Could Challenge Future Growth in U.S. Energy Production and Exports

  36. Measuring Productivity Improvements in U.S. Shale Oil and Gas Production

  37. Energy Poverty in Africa
  38. European and U.S. Natural Gas Storage at the End of Winter 2024-2025
  39. Mozambique LNG and the Role of the U.S. Export-Import Bank
  40. North American Natural Gas Platform: Natural Gas Pipeline Flows, Jan-Nov 2024

  41. The Cost Impact of President Trump’s Tariffs on U.S. Crude Oil Imports From Canada and Mexico: A First Assessment

  42. Crude Oil and Product Movements: The North American Production Platform

  43. U.S. Gasoline Sales, Vehicle Miles Traveled, And Motor Vehicle Fuel Efficiency Revisited

  44. Impacts of the U.S. 2024 Presidential Election on Petroleum and Natural Gas Equities

  45. U.S. Electricity Production and Prices – The Long View

  46. European Natural Gas Constraints During the Winter Of 2024-2025

2024 Charts

  1. Iranian Petroleum Exports Under Shifting U.S. Sanctions Regimes: Actions By the Incoming Trump Administration Could Lead to Tightened Sanctions With Implications on Global Balances and Prices

  2. The German Duck Curve: Evolution of Germany’s Mid-Summer Electricity Generation Resource Mix Comparing 2017 and 2024

  3. Regulatory Credit Contribution to Tesla’s Automotive Gross Profits

  4. U.S. Data Centers: A Provisional Summary in Two Tables

  5. U.S. Utility-Scale Battery Storage Systems Developments

  6. Virginia Electricity Demand Growth:
    The Case of Data Centers

  7. Large Uncertainties Remain on Long-term Petroleum Demand
  8. U.S. LNG Exports by Destination Region Revisited

  9. Mideast Military Aggression and OPEC+ Crude Production Management and Their Impact On Red Sea and Hormuz Straits Tanker Traffic And Crude Oil Prices

  10. Breakdown of California Gasoline Prices: A Brief Overview of Factors Leading to California’s Premium over the U.S. National Average Price

  11. Alternative Economic Indicators: U.S. Diesel Prices and Shifts in Truck-Hauled Freight

  12. Contention for U.S. Natural Gas Resources in Three New England States

  13. Share of Hydrocarbons In Global Power Generation

  14. U.S. Upward Reassessment of Electricity Demand in South Atlantic States

  15. Household Electricity Prices in the U.S. and Europe

  16. The Mid-2024 View: EU and Ukrainian Natural Gas Storage – A Contrasting Tale

  17. Russian Pipelined Natural Gas to Europe: Is Ukraine’s Invasion a Threat?

  18. New York, California, Florida, Texas: Comparing Changes in Annual Unit Residential Costs with Total Per Capita Electricity Costs Yield Different Perspectives

  19. U.S. Mid-Summer Heat Wave Met by Record Natural Gas Power Generation
  20. Update to Additional DC Fast Charging Capacity Required and Acceptability of EV Wait Times

  21. Acceptability Of Electric Vehicle (EV) Wait Times at DC Fast Charging Locations Under EPA EV Expansion Program

  22. Emissions Of Current Popular Vehicles and Required 2032 Compliance Levels

  23. Potential For Charging Station Deficiency Under EPA Electric Vehicle (EV) Expansion Program

  24. A Tale of Two States on Electricity

  25. Octane vs Compression Ratio

  26. Revisited: Progress in U.S. Motor Vehicle Pollution Reduction Since 1970

  27. Changes in Gasoline Formulations in Response to More Exacting Pollution Standards and Blending Mandates
  28. Disruptions of Pipelined Gasoline from the U.S. Gulf Coast to the Atlantic Coast
  29. U.S. Gulf Coast Refineries Continuing Reliance on Medium and Heavy Sour Crude Oil Imports
  30. Understanding the Scale Challenge: IEA’s Electricity Generation Outlooks for 2050
  31. Vehicle Depreciation: EVs vs. Others

  32. EPA’s Power Plant Rule, Declining U.S. Electricity Generating Capacity, and Growing Power Demand

  33. U.S. Natural Gas Production by Producing Region and State, and the Contribution of Oil and Gas Extraction to These States’ GDP

  34. U.S. Crude Oil & Product Imports from Russia and Venezuela Under Shifting Sanctions Regimes

  35. U.S. Insular Territories and The Energy Transition: A Summary View

  36. Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Refineries and Global and U.S. Product Markets

  37. ESG Assets Under Management (AUM): Global and U.S. Perspectives

  38. Massachusetts: Electrification Challenges in Response to Recent Legislation and Rules

  39. Russian Pipeline Crude Oil Exports to Central Europe: Who is Complying with the Sanctions?

  40. EPA’s Proposed Grid Performance Standards and Their Impact on MISO’s Electricity Grid

  41. Crude Prices Rising Amidst Disruption of Red Sea Tanker Traffic
  42. Global Data Center and Crypto Mining – A Comparative View – Part 2
  43. U.S. LNG Revisited
  44. Global Data Centers, Transmission Networks, and Crypto Mining – Part 1

  45. U.S. Residential Heating by County

  46. Potential Unintended Consequences of U.S. Natural Gas Production Curtailments

  47. Number of U.S. Housing Units by Heating Fuel – 1940 to 2022: California, Texas, New York State

  48. Number of U.S. Housing Units by Heating Fuel: 1940 to 2022

2023 Charts

  1. Revisiting European Pre-Winter Natural Gas Storage Builds: 2022 vs 2023

  2. Exxon Mobil / Pioneer and Chevron / Hess Mergers in the Context of Global Liquid Fuels Production

  3. U.S. CO2 Emissions from Hydrocarbon Fuel Consumption

  4. Natural Gas Trade Lowers U.S. Trade Deficit – Revised

  5. Global Net Coal Power Plant Capacity Since the Paris Agreement

  6. European Natural Gas Imports and Storage Ahead Of Winter 2023-2024

  7. European Receipts of U.S. LNG Exports By Destination – Revisited

  8. The Italian Duck Curve: Evolution of Italy’s August Electricity

  9. U.S. Crude Oil Import Dependence
    and Potential Vulnerability

  10. Running on Empty Revisited: U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Continues to Decline to Historic Lows

  11. Seeking Price Relief Through SPR Sales – (Revisited 2)

  12. LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) Trade Lowers U.S. Trade Deficit

  13. Rising U.S. Transportation Fuel Prices

  14. The Spanish Duck Curve: Evolution of Spain’s August Electricity Generation Resource Mix — 2019-2023

  15. European Energy Security as Measured by Affordability
  16. Net Oil Contributions From the Americas
  17. U.S. Energy Security As Measured by Affordability
  18. U.S. Energy Security as Measured by Import Dependency
  19. U.S. Energy Security as Measured by Efficiency
  20. U.S. Crude Oil Production – Potential Headwinds

  21. The Renewable Diesel Margin– Post-2023 RFS RVO Set Rule

  22. EU (plus Norway and the U.K.) National Fiscal Policy Responses to the Energy Crisis: September 2021 to January 2023

  23. EV Electricity Requirements and EPA’s Challenging Rules

  24. June 2023 Texas Heat Wave and ERCOT Generation

  25. Impact from Canadian Wildfire Smoke On Solar Generation in the Northeastern U.S.

  26. Calculating The Renewable Diesel Margin

  27. Estimating U.S. Biodiesel Costs
  28. Global CO₂ Emissions: What If Only OECD Goes Net Zero by 2050?
  29. Comparing CO2 Emissions per 100 Miles Based on Energy Mix: Gasoline-Powered (ICE – Internal Combustion Engines) vs Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs)
  30. Dallas Fed Survey: U.S. Crude Oil Production Costs Are Rising
  31. April in Sacramento: More Solar Generation in California Requires More Natural Gas Generation
  32. Western European Near-Term Natural Gas Requirements
  33. U.S. Crude Oil Production by States/Region: LegacyProducers vs Shale/Offshore – the 40-Year View
  34. Canadian Provincial Oil & Natural Gas Production, Related Consumption and Exports
  35. After Extensive Deliberation the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska (NPR-A) Willow Project Is Set To Yield Revenue for Both the State and the Federal Government
  36. Illinois CO2Emissions from Electricity Production
  37. Crude Oil Production: OPEC Members and U.S. States – How Do They Rank?
  38. Ambition vs. Reality: Share of Renewables in U.S. Primary Energy Demand
  39. Who Emits Most and Least per Dollar of GDP?
  40. Daily Natural Gas Receipts: Jan 2021 to Feb 2023 on the Anniversary of Russia’s Escalation
  41. Lithium – An Upstream View
  42. EU Crude Oil Trade: Shifts due to Russia’s War
  43. ERCOT: Freezin’ Down in Texas – Mid-Winter 2022-2023 Generation Mix, Shortfalls, and Refinery Utilization
  44. Natural Gas Storage Mid-Winter 2022-2023 in the Northern Latitudes
  45. Comparing California Solar Generation During the 2022-2023 Pineapple Express
  46. U.S. SPR 2022 Emergency Sales by Purchaser Type
  47. Revisited: Near- and Short-Term Financial Returns of Green and Legacy Energy Investments vs Key S&P Benchmarks
  48. U.S. Liquid Fuel and Feedstock Rail Movements: Select View

2022 Charts

  1. Russian Seaborne Crude Oil Exports and the Price Cap Mechanism

  2. The RFS: Do D6 RIN Prices Impact Corn Prices? A Simple Regression Analysis

  3. EU’s Industrial Competitiveness Hinges on Natural Gas

  4. Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Demand Shift and Diversions from China to Europe

  5. Resiliency of Crude Oil Production in the Permian Basin

  6. Revisited: Overview of Tight Distillate Markets

  7. New England Winter Electricity Generation Mix

  8. China Runs on Coal: From Deng to Xi

  9. Europe – Daily Natural Gas Receipts During 2022

  10. U.K.’s Electricity Generation Mix: Some Considerations

  11. Running on Empty: U.S. Strategic Petroleum ReserveNow at Historic Lows

  12. Germany’s Energiewende: Some Considerations

  13. Vast Majority of World Will Need More Energy

  14. Revisiting California Retail Gasoline Prices vs. the U.S.

  15. Calculating Foregone Tax Revenues per MMBTU of U.S. Primary Energy Production

  16. GHG Impact of Inflation Reduction Act & Bipartisan Infrastructure Law

  17. Natural Gas Storage Ahead of Winter 2022-2023

  18. U.S. Crude Oil Production: New EIA Data Reveals Shortfalls

  19. 2022 Mid-Summer Electricity Generation: California & Texas

  20. Europe – Recently Reported Monthly Natural Gas Receipts

  21. New York State CO2Emissions From Hydrocarbon Fuels

  22. 2022 Mid-Summer Retail Transportation Fuel Prices

  23. Natural Gas and Global Food Production

  24. Implied Tesla Battery Production Costs

  25. U.S. LNG Exports: Recent Trends

  26. California Summer Hydroelectric Power Shortfall is Projected

  27. Near- and Short-Term Financial Returns of Green and Legacy Energy Investments vs Key S&P Benchmarks

  28. Expected U.S. LNG Capacity: Then (2017) and Now (2022)

  29. Overview of Tight Global Distillate Markets

  30. The North American Hydrocarbon Production Platform: Fueling the Americas, Generating Trade

  31. Snapshot of Canadian Crude Oil, Petroleum Products, and Natural Gas Supply/Demand Balances

  32. Energy Value of Ethanol vs Gasoline

  33. U.S. Gasoline Sales vs. Vehicle Miles Traveled

  34. Seeking Gasoline Price Relief Through Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) Sales

  35. U.S. Motor Vehicle Pollution Reduction Progress since 1970

  36. Federal Onshore Leases – Exploration & Potential Production Timeline

  37. European LNG Import Volumes & Capacity

  38. Are GazProm’s Natural Gas Volumes Increasing Through Ukraine and Slovakia as Some Claim?

  39. The Renewable Fuel Standard and Gasoline Prices

  40. U.S. Consumer Energy Expenditures as a Percentage of Disposable Income

  41. Winter of 2021-2022: Natural Gas Inventories in the Northern Latitudes – Mid-Season Update

  42. Foregone Tax Revenues from U.S. Biodiesel Tax Credits

  43. Onshore vs Offshore U.S. Royalties from Oil & Natural Gas Production

  44. Foregone Tax Revenues from U.S. Fossil Fuel Programs

  45. China Surpasses Japan in LNG Imports

2021 Charts

  1. Foregone Tax Revenues from U.S. Plug-in Electric Vehicle Tax Credits

  2. Foregone Tax Revenues from U.S. Federal Renewable Electricity Investment Credits

  3. Foregone Tax Revenues from U.S. Federal Renewable Electricity Production Credits

  4. Seeking Gasoline Price Relief Through Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) Sales

  5. Natural Gas Inventories Ahead of Winter in the Northern Latitudes 2021-2022

  6. Lithium and U.S. Motor Vehicle Considerations

  7. Fertilizer: Where Natural Gas and Agriculture Meet

  8. Long-Term Underinvestment in Upstream Oil & Gas Production Foreshadows High Prices as Global Demand Returns

  9. Fast Charging Electric Vehicle (EV) Stations: Some Considerations

  10. High-Level Analysis of the Contribution of US Shale Gas to European Gas Prices and Savings

  11. Incremental Growth in Global Natural Gas Production Since 2010

  12. Select Residential Electricity Prices: US and Europe

  13. With High LNG Benchmark Prices, Some Asian Electricity Producers Are Considering Alternative Fuels

  14. Natural Gas Prices are Signaling Tight Energy Markets Ahead of Winter

  15. California Retail Gasoline Prices vs the U.S.

  16. Fire at PEMEX’s Ku-Maloob-Zaap Halts Oil Output Temporarily

  17. Total U.S. Annual Potential Solar Electricity Generation

  18. Access to Electricity in Africa

  19. Can California Meet Its Aggressive Fossil Fuel GHG Reduction Targets?

  20. Mexico’s and PEMEX’s Estimated Revenue from the Talos-Led Development of Zama: Proceeds Through 2040

  21. Gasoline Demand Forecasting: The Challenges of Getting It Right

  22. Incremental Growth in Global Oil Production Since 2010

  23. U.S. Energy Debt Market: A Look at High-Yield Bonds

  24. The Arctic National Wildlife Refuge Crude Oil Potential: An NPV Assessment

  25. U.S. Energy Debt Market Snapshot

  26. Can the California Electricity Grid Immediately Switch to an All EV Fleet?

  27. UK Electricity Capacity vs Electricity Generation

  28. Emissions from Bitcoin Mining

  29. U.S. Atlantic Coast is Dependent on Gulf Coast and MidContinent Petroleum Product Supplies

  30. Biofuel Mandates are Adding to Gasoline Prices

  31. Competition in U.S. Oil & Gas Upstream Development Yields Substantial Revenue to State Governments – The Case of Wyoming

  32. Can the U.S. Electricity Grid Immediately Switch to an All-EV Fleet?

  33. With Global Oil Demand on the Rebound, What About Supply?

  34. “India Is Getting It Done”

  35. LNG Suez Canal Traffic in Perspective

  36. Competition in U.S. Oil & Gas Upstream Development Yields Substantial Revenue to State Governments

  37. Changes to Mexico’s Planned Electricity Capacity Additions pre/post AMLO

  38. “Freezin’ Down in Texas, All the Refineries Are Down”

  39. China Runs on Coal

  40. U.S. Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products

Dominick Blue

Distinguished Fellow

Dominick Blue is a Distinguished Fellow at the Energy Policy Research Foundation (EPRINC), where his research focuses on energy resilience, reliability, and the secure integration of emerging technologies into the power sector. His current work examines the intersection of advanced computing, infrastructure planning, and national energy security.
Dominick’s research portfolio includes analysis of AI and data center electricity demand-forecasting regional load growth, reliability implications, siting dynamics, and market coordination. He also leads studies on grid modernization and energy security, assessing resilience investments, interconnection constraints, and federal–state coordination under higher load scenarios. His additional work explores the revival of the U.S. nuclear sector, financing and licensing pathways for advanced reactors, and rebuilding domestic manufacturing capacity to support the nuclear supply chain.
Further research areas include gas-to-power infrastructure, pipeline and turbine capacity, and the role of gas in maintaining reliability within a diversified generation mix. Across these topics, Dominick focuses on translating complex technical findings into accessible policy insights for decision-makers at DOE, FERC, and state regulatory agencies.
Before joining EPRINC, Dominick held senior leadership roles in infrastructure, technology, and risk management, including Managing Partner and Director of Client Innovation for private investment and global critical infrastructure firms, respectively. A former U.S. Marine Corps Chief Warrant Officer Two in CBRN Defense, he brings a mission-driven perspective to energy resilience and safety. He holds a Masters of Business from the University of Southern California and has completed graduate studies in Computer Science at Georgia Tech, with research interests in AI systems, resilient infrastructure, and energy transition security.