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EPRINC studies energy economics and policy issue with special emphasis on oil, natural gas and petroleum product markets. We provide objective and technical analysis on a wide range of energy issues.

Chart of the Week

Iranian Petroleum Exports Under Shifting U.S. Sanctions Regimes: Actions By the Incoming Trump Administration Could Lead to Tightened Sanctions With Implications on Global Balances and Prices

 

Before the Trump administration’s 2018 actions, Iran shipped petroleum to multiple destinations including Syria, Korea, India, Turkey, Japan, and others; during this period China purchased 30% to 50% of Iran’s exports. Through sanction evasion, China has since become the dominant buyer of Iran’s petroleum with purchases that range from 75% to 95% of Iran’s total exports during 2023 and 2024

 

Before the Trump administration’s 2018 actions, Iran shipped petroleum to multiple destinations including Syria, Korea, India, Turkey, Japan, and others; during this period China purchased 30% to 50% of Iran’s exports. Through sanction evasion, China has since become the dominant buyer of Iran’s petroleum with purchases that range from 75% to 95% of Iran’s total exports during 2023 and 2024.

It is with profound sadness and heavy hearts that we at the Energy Policy Research announce the passing of our dear friend, colleague, and former president, Larry Goldstein, whose extraordinary leadership and analytical vigor have left a lasting impact on our organization and the global energy community.

Larry’s remarkable career spanned decades of major contributions to the energy sector, both in the US and internationally. As a visionary and one of the sharpest minds in energy policy and analysis, his insights shaped discussions on the various aspects of global energy markets, pricing, and security. Through numbers and analyses, Larry strived to help better human wellbeing by fostering energy security and economic prosperity.

Larry’s works at the Energy Policy Research were marked by his extraordinary intellect, his unwavering passion to find the right answers, and his gifted talent in distilling complex energy issues into clear insights. His leadership made our organization a respected voice in energy policy research, and his limitless generosity of knowledge inspired all who had the privilege to collaborate with him.

Reflecting on Larry’s legacy, President Lucian Pugliaresi shared, “On Monday morning our organization, Energy Policy Research, lost a Trustee. I lost my old friend and colleague. The loss is unbearable. I first met Larry in 1974 when he was working with John Lichtblau. They were trying to convince the senior Senator from Washington, Henry “Scoop” Jackson, to pursue legislation to build the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Their insights and hard work prevailed, and it was the early days of trying to bring some rationality on how the country should think about energy security and the essential role of petroleum for the U.S. I suspect we spoke on the phone almost every week since the mid 1970s. In 2006, when the Trustees decided to move the think tank to Washington, DC, Larry convinced me to take over the Presidency of our small organization. Nevertheless, he remained active and routinely gave us ideas on central issues that needed hard work. We had a lot of great arguments and so much fun over many years. It will be a very big hole to fill. My condolences to the entire family.”

To celebrate Larry’s life and achievements, we will hold an event in Washington DC early in the New Year. Larry’s friends, colleagues, and anyone with an interest in energy will be welcome, please contact Will Pack at [email protected] for more information.
We extend our deepest condolences to Larry’s family and friends.

Rest in peace, Larry. We will profoundly miss you, but your spirit and ideas will continue to guide us for many years to come!

The Energy Policy Research Team

A video tribute to Larry can be found here.

Larry’s most recent productions for the Energy Policy Research website can be found at “Larry’s Corner”, located here.

Energy Policy Research Foundation Distinguished Fellow and Enerstrat Consulting Founder Ash Shastri has penned a timely piece on shifts in price and public perception in regards to electricity in Germany. His paper, entitled “An Imminent Reversal in German Energy Policy?” can be found here.

On November 7, 2024, EPRINC Distinguished Fellow Ash Shastri penned this piece, entitled “Novak Statement on Ukraine Gas Transit Agreement”. The paper covers the geopolitical and strategic implications for the EU and Britain specifically of the timing of the Russian Deputy Prime Minister’s statement that Russia is ready to supply natural gas to Europe through Ukraine.

On November 1, 2024, the Energy Policy Research hosted the second installment of the popular Electricity Series Workshops, entitled “Challenges in Meeting Surging U.S. Power Demand.”

The purpose of the workshop series is to develop a careful understanding of the growing risks to the resiliency of the US electric power system, the forces driving rising power demand and electricity prices, and proposals for cost-effective regulatory reforms that can bolster the long-term viability of the U.S. electric power system. A background discussion paper can be found here.

This virtual workshop featured presentations on the rising demand for power (from data centers, EVs, manufacturing) and some perspectives on the lost opportunities should electricity become much more expensive and much less reliable. The agenda for the workshop is here.

The presentations given at this workshop can be found attached at the bottom of this post.

Background Materials:

The first meeting in this series (on August 2, 2024) looked at risks to the power sector with presentations by Thomas Popik (Foundation for Resilient Societies), Isaac Orr (formerly of the American Experiment), Michelle Foss (Rice) and Max Pyziur (EPRINC). These presentations can be found here.

The Energy Policy Research Foundation has initiated its Electric Power Vision 2030 project, which is detailed further in this document. Alongside internal research into electric power demand and the effects of electrification on energy policy and US economics, the project also includes a series of workshops. The first workshop took place on August 2, 2024 and included presentations from a panel of very knowledgable speakers: Max Pyziur (Energy Policy Research Foundation), Michelle Foss (Rice University Baker Institute), Isaac Orr (Always On Energy Research) and Thomas Popik (Foundation for Resilient Societies). Those presentations can be found attached to this post.

Additionally, a summary of the workshop can be found here.

The Biden Administration’s recent tightening of the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standards will force car manufacturers to rapidly increase EV sales to be in compliance. If left in place, such standards will cause a rapid transition from a gasoline-based vehicle fleet to a battery-based vehicle fleet.

To examine the effects of such a transition in energy economies, the Energy Policy Research has conducted an analysis of the CAFE rules implications on potential wait times at charging stations over the next 25 years. This briefing gives an overview of this topic and provides historical context, a discussion of key regulatory tools, a formal analysis of potential wait times in the absence of sufficient charging facilities, and concludes with a set of recommendations for policymakers.

The Energy Policy Research Foundation has published this interactive chart as a result of their research into the IEA critical minerals data.

This chart compares the change in demand, Growth %, for critical minerals from the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) to the Sustainable Development Scenario  (SDS) for 2030 and 2040, with a base year of 2020.
For example, the growth % from STEPS to SDS for nickel increases 89% from 2030 to 2040, from 210% to 299%. Meaning, If SDS is adopted instead of STEPS, nickel demand will grow by 210% by 2030 from 2020 levels (100%). By 2040, nickel would increase by 299%, an 89% change from 2030.
A feature of this chart is that individual bars may be clicked to reveal specific tonnage data for each mineral. An overview layer of this chart can be downloaded here.

Michael Lynch, Energy Policy Research Foundation Distinguished Fellow and President of Strategic Energy & Economic Research, has published a short piece in Forbes entitled “Vermont’s Attack On Big Oil Is Pandering Not Climate Policy“. In this piece, he examines Vermont’s decision to pass a bill intended to charge oil companies for the damage climate change has caused and the implications of that decison.

EPRINC Director of Research Programs Max Pyziur was featured in a story in Scripps News written by John Mone. In the piece, Pyziur provides commentary on the IEA’s predictions of an imminent glut in oil production capacity in its recent report.

One of Pyziur’s quotes is below:

Max Pyziur, the research director for the Energy Policy Research Foundation, said, “Electrical generation from intermittent resources such as solar and wind, I see that as being very difficult to commission. Consequently, you’re going to continue to need to rely on oil and gas and coal for the duration.”

The article can be found here.

EPRINC has just published a complete revision of its Gasoline Blending Primer. This expanded version of the Primer concisely explains the evolution of gasoline production and formulation from early efforts to meet rising performance standards to recent blends required by more rigorous pollution regulations and biofuel mandates.
In the process, finished gasoline that was once a simple combination of a few refined petroleum components usable across a wide geographic space has evolved to many formulations that have become increasingly complex adjusted for the requirements of different regulatory jurisdictions,” commented Max Pyziur, EPRINC’s Research Director. “This is a formidable achievement, but it comes with increasing costs.”
The Primer is updated with discussions of current policy considerations and issues. It is available here.

We’re excited to present to you our latest video on global LNG terminal capacity. The animation delves into the significance of LNG for securing and diversifying energy supplies, while also highlighting its positive impact on the US trade balance.

This video is part of the Foundation’s ongoing animation series on critical topics in energy security and energy transition.

EPRINC Distinguished Fellow Michael Lynch has published another piece in Forbes, entitled “Oil Companies Should Listen To Activists—But Skeptically“. Click the link to read the full article on the Forbes website! A PDF of the piece can be found here.

In an interview with Kevin Killough for Just the News, EPRINC’s Max Pyziur discusses the formidable efficiency gains that have been made by data centers helping to deliver increasing loads while questions remain as to their future electricity demand growth. The article, “America’s electricity grid is stressed, and new data centers may put even bigger demands on it“, was published February 18, 2024.

On Tuesday, December 5 2023, Energy Policy Research hosted a workshop called: “Pathways to Net Zero: Electric Power and EVs”. The workshop consisted of two panels to address the central tasks necessary to proceed with an energy transition that relies upon a rapid electrification of the national economy. We expect our attendees to participate in the discussion. Experts that are undertaking assessments on operational risks to the national grid from EPA energy mandates and the acceleration in power demand for EVs and other electrification proposals participated, as well as representatives from the automotive industry.

Our existing assessments on “Net Zero” have outlined cost risks, technology constraints, and regulatory obstacles for a rapid build out of the electric grid, including power requirements to meet demand from the expansion of EVs. Sound policy will require a careful understanding of the challenges ahead.

An agenda from the workshop is here, and some of the presentations that were given at the workshop can be found below.

EPRINC Trustee Larry Goldstein was quoted in two separate articles, one by CNBC and one by the New York Times, on the topics of the recent acquisitions by oil majors ExxonMobil and Chevron. Links to the articles are below:

CNBC – Why Exxon and Chevron are doubling down on fossil fuel energy with big acquisitions by Cat Clifford

Larry Goldstein ([email protected]) is an internationally recognized authority on petroleum markets, and has extensive advisory relationships with energy companies, research institutes, and government agencies. He is a former president of the Petroleum Industry Research Foundation (PIRINC) now the Energy Policy Research Foundation (EPRINC), its successor organization, and continues to be on EPRINC’s Board of Trustees. He was a founder and president of the PIRA Energy Group, a major energy consulting firm that was acquired by S&P Global in 2016.

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