• EPRINC and IEEJ Co-Host Third US – Japan LNG Workshop

    IEEJ and EPRINC are in the third year of a joint assessment of the future role of LNG in Asian power and fuel markets. The effort has been supported by both METI and DOE and is part of the Japan-United States Strategic Energy Partnership (JUSEP). It remains an important joint initiative in supporting the growth of LNG in the Asia Pacific region.

    Among the more important objectives of this joint effort are identifying recent trends and longer-term uncertainties in Asian natural gas markets, proposing joint policy initiatives, and highlighting the critical role of U.S. LNG exports in serving those markets. To this end, EPRINC and IEEJ have co-hosted a workshop that included presentations and discussion on the U.S. LNG value chain, opportunities and challenges for financing the expansion of U.S. LNG exports and the development of new regasification facilities in Asia. The program also explored strategies to bring more liquidity to the financing of U.S. LNG exports.

    The workshop presentations and accompanying discussion will contribute to the final joint IEEJ-EPRINC report and recommendations. These findings and recommendations will be presented at the 8th Annual Producer Consumer Conference on September 28, 2019 in Tokyo, Japan. The agenda for the workshop can be found here, the presentations given that day are here, and the photos from the workshop are here.

  • EPRINC Assessment on Mexico’s Oil and Gas Challenges by Rafael Sandrea

    Mexico is an essential piece of the North American petroleum production platform, and Mexico’s oil and gas reserves and production are at a critical crossroads. Oil reserves would be exhausted in ten years and gas reserves in six without massive new capital commitments. Of a total of 465 oil fields discovered, today a handful of ten currently account for nearly two-thirds of all domestic production; likewise, of the 700-plus gas fields discovered, ten account for almost half of all gas production.

    The energy reform measures implemented in Mexico over the last few years, also known as the New Energy Model, offer considerable potential to lift oil and gas production, increase employment and deliver technological advances, and additional revenues for Mexico’s federal, state, and local governments. The New Energy Model has brought new investment into Mexico’s petroleum provinces, and there has been significant investment in seismic surveys and commitments for new wells. This expanded activity in the petroleum sector, entirely from private investment, has led to new discoveries.

    Mexico’s new president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (often referred to as AMLO), has expressed skepticism towards the energy reforms of the previous administration and has halted most initiatives to bring new private capital into the development of Mexico’s oil and gas resources. Although Mexico has not had a full public debate on all aspects of AMLO’s criticism of the New Energy Model, this EPRINC assessment demonstrates that without massive new commitments of capital for petroleum development, Mexico’s oil and gas future is grim.

    The Spanish-language version of the assessment can be found here.

     

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    Revisiting The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)

    The prospect for conflict in the Middle East, pending collapse of production in Venezuela, and turmoil in North Africa all remind us the world oil market still faces substantial threats of disruption.  The North American petroleum renaissance, which has lifted U.S. oil production to the point where net exports are rapidly moving into positive territory, has also opened opportunities for  Congress to sell off a substantial volume of strategic stocks to fund a range of domestic programs. EPRINC has argued that while some adjustments to the reserve size may be justified, on balance, it still plays a critical role in the security of the United States and decisions on the size of the SPR should take the long view. The SPR remains an important strategic asset.

    Given the current geopolitical environment, we are highlighting some previous EPRINC papers published on this topic.  In addition, our friend and colleague, Dr. Carmine Difiglio, has shared with us his insightful analysis of the value of strategic stocks in sustaining economic growth. Professor Difiglio, formerly with the U.S. Department of Energy, is Director of the Istanbul International Center for Energy and Climate (IICEC) at Sabanci Univerity.

    For links to the reports on the SPR, click here

    John Shages, former Deputy Assistant Secretary for Strategic Reserves, writes on Policy Challenges in Managing the Nation’s Strategic Oil Stock  (July 2014).

    For access to the report, click here

    Lucian Pugliaresi of EPRINC and Fred Beach of UT, Austin debate the value of the SPR in the Wall Street  Journal (November 2015).

    For access to the report, click here

    Larry Goldstein and Lucian Pugliaresi of EPRINC comment on Congress’s initiative  to fund health care by reducing the size of the SPR  in Politico (July 2015)

    For access to the report, click here

    Carmine Difiglio’s extensive analysis of the negative consequences of world economic growth from oil supply disruptions. Oil, economic growth and strategic petroleum stocks, Energy Strategy Reviews (2014).

    For access to the report, click here

    Michael Lynch, EPRINC Distinguished Fellow and President of Strategic Energy and Economic Research, Inc. presents a retrospective on the 1979 oil disruption and the role uncertainty and hoarding can play is amplifying the cost of an oil supply disruption. The article was recently published in Forbes and can be found here

  • EPRINC Releases Report on the Role of Octane in U.S. Transportation Fuels

    Over the course of the last forty years, automobile manufacturers have had to comply with a variety of increasingly stringent Federal and State requirements. CAFE (Corporate Average Fuel Economy) regulations were enacted in the 1970s to require higher fuel efficiency in motor vehicles. Beginning in 2005 through the passage of the RFS (Renewable Fuel Standard) increasing volumes of biofuel blending have been mandated.  As both of these sets of regulations have created formidable compliance challenges, there has emerged an opportunity to link the two to bring some convergence to these two important public policy concerns and offer some resolution through requiring higher-octane fuel.

    EPRINC’s Lucian Pugliaresi and Max Pyziur have written a report which presents an estimate of the cost of transforming the U.S. gasoline fuel system from one in which about 89 percent of sales can be characterized as “regular” and “midgrade” gasoline into a fuel system that, over time, nearly 100 percent of sales can be characterized as “higher-octane” gasoline. Several methodologies were used to estimate the cost of this transformation, and the merits and demerits of each system for calculating the cost are discussed in the report. The report can be found here.

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    Lucian Pugliaresi Presents at the Energy Mexico Oil Gas Power 2019 Expo & Congress

    Photo: Panelists for the Session on Energy Implications of the new U.S. Mexico Canada (USMCA) Trade Agreement (Left to Right) Jesus Seade Kuri (Key NAFTA Negotiator for the Administration of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador), Ildefonso Guajardo (Former Minister of Economy and Chief Negotiator of NAFTA), Carlos Pascual (Senior Vice President, Global Energy, IHS Markit), Herman Franssen (Panel Chairman, Executive Director,  Energy Intelligence Group), Lucian Pugliaresi (President, Energy Policy Research Foundation), Moisés R. Kalach Balas (Coordinator of the Strategic International Business Council, Consejo Coordinador Empresarial)   Lucian Pugliaresi made two presentations in Mexico City at the Energy Mexico Oil Gas Power 2019 Expo & Congress, a key event for the entire value chain of the Mexican energy sector.  He made presentations on a panel discussion on the new U.S. – Mexico – Canada (USMCA) trade agreement as well as a panel evaluating the implications of shifts in national energy policies.  His two presentations can be found here and here.    

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    EPRINC Releases Report on Mexico’s Petroleum Future

    The energy reform measures implemented in Mexico over the last few years, also known as the New Energy Model, offer considerable potential to lift oil and gas production, increase employment and deliver technological advances, and crucially additional revenues for federal, state, and local governments. These reforms, if fully implemented, will also enhance long-term energy security for Mexico and North America. Energy reform in Mexico is contributing to the likelihood that North America will become a sustained net exporter to world markets in both petroleum (crude oil and refined products) and natural gas in the coming years. In a just-released EPRINC assessment, Michael Lynch, EPRINC Distinguished Fellow, presents his findings on the economic value to Mexico of the energy reforms in the petroleum sector. A link to the full report can be found here. A Spanish translation of the report will be posted on the EPRINC’s website in early January 2019.

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    London Argus Biofuels 2018 Conference

    On October 8-11, 2018, Argus Media held their Biofuels 2018 Conference in London.

    Offering a U.S. perspective, EPRINC’s Max Pyziur participated in a panel titled, “Political will for ethanol in transport fuels.” He also chaired a Roundtable themed “Ethanol Growth in the US markets.”

    The pdf of his powerpoint slides used at the Roundtable can be found here.

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    IEEJ and EPRINC Commentary on the Future of Asian LNG
    As the 7th Annual LNG Producer Consumer Conference opens in Nagoya, Japan, Masakazu Toyoda, CEO of the Institute of Energy Economics Japan (IEEJ) and Lucian Pugliaresi, President of the Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc (EPRINC) outlined the important role of  U.S.-Japan cooperation in meeting rising Asian LNG demand with U.S. shale gas exports.  Their views appear in two separate  articles published in the Nikkei Asian Review  and the Japan Times.
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    IEEJ and EPRINC Release 2018 Assessment on the Future of Asian LNG

    The Institute of Energy Economics Japan (IEEJ) and EPRINC have published a follow-on assessment to their 2017 joint report on the future role of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Asian power and fuel markets. This second year of our joint effort has taken a more in-depth evaluation of trends and longer-term uncertainties in Asian natural gas markets and the potential role of U.S. LNG exports in serving those markets. The joint research findings were presented at the 7th Annual Producer Consumer LNG Conference held in Nagoya, Japan on October 22, 2018. The event was attended by energy ministers, government officials, and industry representatives from the entire LNG value chain.

    A copy of the 2018 joint report can be found here.

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    EPRINC and IEEJ Host Workshop: “Future of Asian LNG Part Two, The Road to Nagoya”
    On September 5th, 2018, EPRINC co-hosted the third workshop in the 2018 “Future of Asian LNG” series at the Willard InterContinental Hotel in Washington D.C. IEEJ and EPRINC are in the second year of a joint assessment of the future role of LNG in Asian power and fuel markets. Among the more important objectives of this joint effort are identifying recent trends and longer-term uncertainties in Asian natural gas markets and the potential role of U.S. LNG exports in serving those markets. The final workshop in the 2018 program included presentations and discussion on the U.S. LNG value chain, opportunities and challenges for financing the expansion of U.S. LNG exports and regasification receiving facilities in Asia, and prospects for expansion of natural gas storage and LNG bunker facilities, among other topics.
    The workshop presentations and accompanying discussion will contribute to the final joint IEEJ-EPRINC report and recommendations. The findings and recommendations will be presented at the 7th Annual Producer Consumer Conference on October 22, 2018 in Nagoya, Japan.






EPRINC Releases Report on the Role of Octane in U.S. Transportation Fuels

Over the course of the last forty years, automobile manufacturers have had to comply with a variety of increasingly stringent Federal and State requirements. CAFE (Corporate Average Fuel Economy) regulations were enacted in the 1970s to require higher fuel efficiency in motor vehicles. Beginning in 2005 through the passage of the RFS (Renewable Fuel Standard) increasing volumes of biofuel blending have been mandated.  As both of these sets of regulations have created formidable compliance challenges, there has emerged an opportunity to link the two to bring some convergence to these two important public policy concerns and offer some resolution through requiring higher-octane fuel.

EPRINC’s Lucian Pugliaresi and Max Pyziur have written a report which presents an estimate of the cost of transforming the U.S. gasoline fuel system from one in which about 89 percent of sales can be characterized as “regular” and “midgrade” gasoline into a fuel system that, over time, nearly 100 percent of sales can be characterized as “higher-octane” gasoline. Several methodologies were used to estimate the cost of this transformation, and the merits and demerits of each system for calculating the cost are discussed in the report. The report can be found here.

Lucian Pugliaresi Presents at the Energy Mexico Oil Gas Power 2019 Expo & Congress

Photo: Panelists for the Session on Energy Implications of the new U.S. Mexico Canada (USMCA) Trade Agreement (Left to Right) Jesus Seade Kuri (Key NAFTA Negotiator for the Administration of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador), Ildefonso Guajardo (Former Minister of Economy and Chief Negotiator of NAFTA), Carlos Pascual (Senior Vice President, Global Energy, IHS Markit), Herman Franssen (Panel Chairman, Executive Director,  Energy Intelligence Group), Lucian Pugliaresi (President, Energy Policy Research Foundation), Moisés R. Kalach Balas (Coordinator of the Strategic International Business Council, Consejo Coordinador Empresarial)   Lucian Pugliaresi made two presentations in Mexico City at the Energy Mexico Oil Gas Power 2019 Expo & Congress, a key event for the entire value chain of the Mexican energy sector.  He made presentations on a panel discussion on the new U.S. – Mexico – Canada (USMCA) trade agreement as well as a panel evaluating the implications of shifts in national energy policies.  His two presentations can be found here and here.    

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EPRINC Publica Su Informe Sobre el Futuro del Petróleo en México

Las acciones derivadas de la reforma energética que se han implementado en México en los últimos años ofrecen un potencial considerable para elevar la producción de petróleo y gas del país, así como incrementar el empleo, permitir la transferencia de avances tecnológicos y también, ingresos adicionales para el Estado mexicano a nivel federal, estatal y local.

Si la reforma se logra implementar adecuadamente, va a contribuir a largo plazo a la seguridad energética de México y Norteamérica. Es muy probable que la reforma energética en México contribuya a que Norteamérica se convierta en un exportador neto de petróleo y gas natural al mercado mundial en los próximos años.

En una reciente evaluación, Michael Lynch, un distinguido colaborador de EPRINC, presenta los resultados y conclusiones de su análisis sobre el valor económico que aporta la reforma energética a México en el sector petrolero. El reporte completo puede leerse aquí. La traducción al español del estudio completo será publicada en el portal web de EPRINC en enero de 2019.

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EPRINC Releases Report on Mexico’s Petroleum Future

The energy reform measures implemented in Mexico over the last few years, also known as the New Energy Model, offer considerable potential to lift oil and gas production, increase employment and deliver technological advances, and crucially additional revenues for federal, state, and local governments. These reforms, if fully implemented, will also enhance long-term energy security for Mexico and North America. Energy reform in Mexico is contributing to the likelihood that North America will become a sustained net exporter to world markets in both petroleum (crude oil and refined products) and natural gas in the coming years. In a just-released EPRINC assessment, Michael Lynch, EPRINC Distinguished Fellow, presents his findings on the economic value to Mexico of the energy reforms in the petroleum sector. A link to the full report can be found here. A Spanish translation of the report will be posted on the EPRINC’s website in early January 2019.

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EPRINC Welcomes A. Liang as a Distinguished Fellow
EPRINC is fortunate to announce the addition of A. (John) Liang, Founder and CEO of Edge Consulting as a Distinguished Fellow. Mr. Liang is a graduate of Nanjing University, has a long publication record, and has close ties to the broader Nanjing academic community. He has undertaken several assessments evaluating energy development and trade flows between the U.S., Europe, and China. Before founding Edge Consulting, he worked for several years for a Fortune 500 company. Of special interest to EPRINC is Mr. Liang’s extensive knowledge of trade flows in critical energy commodities, including LNG, crude oil, and petroleum products.  As EPRINC heads into its third-year assessment of the “Future of Asian LNG,” gaining an understanding of actual developments on the ground in China, from regulatory changes to new demand patterns, will provide a unique perspective on China’s role in world oil and gas markets. Mr. Liang’s firm provides extensive support for trading operations, consulting services, and international business support for Chinese firms and their trading partners.

A LIANG

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