The April 8 ceasefire produced a one-day, 16% drop in WTI crude before Iran re-closed the strait over Israeli strikes on Lebanon and prices partially reversed. The market reaction captured the situation precisely: the ceasefire is real, but so is its fragility.
EPRINC’s latest analysis shows pipeline bypasses and IEA/SPR releases reducing the gross crude shortfall of 14.2 MB/d to an official 5.9 MB/d. Floating storage drawdowns and Iranian-controlled transit account for another 4.0 MB/d in offsets, yielding a net shortfall of 1.9 MB/d, if everything holds. It won’t necessarily. Floating storage cannot be replenished under active conflict, and Iranian-controlled transit was already halted once within the truce’s first 24 hours. If hostilities resume, those offsets collapse and the effective shortfall reverts toward 5.9 MB/d of crude alone.
On December 4, 2025, EPRINC Research Director Max Pyziur delivered address at the ICIS 19th Annual Pan American Base Oils and Lubricants Conference in Jersey City, NJ. Titled “U.S. Energy & Economic Policy – Geopolitical & Financial Stress Points – Select Views,” the presentation provided comprehensive analysis of critical energy policy issues facing the Second Trump Administration.
Pyziur’s presentation covered major energy initiatives including efforts to expand oil and gas leasing on federal lands, the potential repeal of the 2009 Endangerment Finding, and policies promoting U.S. energy dominance. The analysis examined the Trump administration’s sanctions policy toward Russia, the effectiveness of Ukrainian attacks on Russian refining infrastructure, and recent U.S. and EU sanctions impacting Russian crude oil markets. Pyziur highlighted how European energy imports have successfully displaced Russian supplies, with U.S. exports of crude oil, petroleum products, and LNG playing a critical role in European energy security.
The presentation also addressed indicators of macroeconomic risks, including analysis of gold prices, tanker traffic through strategic chokepoints, and potential headwinds in private credit markets. Pyziur concluded with observations on energy transitions, emphasizing that hydrocarbons remain essential for producing civilization’s key materials—steel, cement, fertilizer, and plastics—and provided an overview of U.S. hydrocarbon markets in the context of the North American petroleum renaissance.
The full presentation can be found here.
Residential electricity prices went up in most states between August 2024 and August 2025, but the size of the increase was very different across the country.
Energy Policy Research Foundation President Lucian Pugliaresi has been asked to speak at the Worshipful Company of Fuellers’ Duke of Edinburgh Future Energy Conference on December 2, 2025. This is the fourth conference in this series, and will cover a wide range of issues. From the Fuellers’ website:
“Chaired by the Master Fueller, the conference features a dynamic programme of keynote speeches and high-level panel discussions tackling the most pressing issues shaping the future of energy. Held under the Chatham House Rule, the forum welcomes senior leaders from across the energy, finance and technology sectors, both from the UK and internationally, alongside members of the Fuellers and other City of London Livery Companies. As with the Fuellers’ membership itself, the conference is open to anyone with a professional or personal interest in energy.”
More information about this event and the RSVP link can be found here.
Energy Policy Research Foundation Distinguished Fellow Francois Baird has been published in American Greatness, in a piece entitled “American Energy Diplomacy Can Spur Human Flourishing in Africa and Counter Beijing and Moscow”. This article can be found on the American Greatness website, here.
On November 13, 2025, EPRINC Research Director Max Pyziur and researcher Matthew Sawoski presented “The Three Seas Initiative Paradigm: Examining the Possibilities from Energy to Security” at the CUSUR Forum held at The Bush Institute/Texas A&M in Washington, DC.
The presentation provided a comprehensive analysis of the Three Seas Initiative (3SI), a strategic cooperation framework connecting thirteen Central European countries between the Baltic, Adriatic, and Black Seas. Drawing on EPRINC’s September 2023 report “The Three Seas Initiative: An Introduction and Energy Security Assessment,” Pyziur and Sawoski examined the region’s economic development, energy security challenges, and infrastructure financing obstacles.
The analysis revealed that while the 3SI region comprises 20% of Europe’s population and 25% of its land area, it accounts for only 16% of European GDP, with per capita GDP at approximately 80% of the European average. However, the region demonstrates stronger economic growth (2.6% annually) compared to the broader European Union (1.1%), alongside significantly higher freight transport capacity and agricultural output relative to its economic size.
A central focus of EPRINC’s research was an analysis of the “Priority Projects” 3SI had identified as key infrastructure initiatives for the economic health and security of the region. Whereas transport projects showed some progress, EPRINC’s analysis showed consistent lack of funding for energy security projects, which was tied directly to political and security problems European leaders have experienced in the aftermath of February 2022.
Pyziur and Sawoski presented a theory for the lack of funding in various pathways, and made recommendations for what would need to be done to bring 3SI less out of the realm of an organizing idea to organization in reality.
Looking forward, Pyziur and Sawoski recommended that U.S. policymakers emphasize the geostrategic importance of 3SI, support balanced energy security considerations within EU policy frameworks, maintain robust U.S. LNG export capacity, establish accountability mechanisms for priority project implementation, and strengthen cooperation with Ukraine and other regional partners. They concluded that without systemic changes to energy infrastructure financing, Central Europe’s energy security and independence remain at significant risk.
The presentation can be found here.
On October 8, 2025, Energy Policy Research Distinguished Fellow Ash Shastri was installed as Master of the Worshipful Company of Fuellers in the United Kingdom. The ceremony culminated with a well-attended event and dinner in Drapers’ Hall in London.
More about the Worshipful Company of Fuellers is on their website, and a writeup of the event can be found here and on their LinkedIn page here.
The Energy Policy Research Foundation congratulates Ash and is very excited for him to be taking on this important position at a critical time. EPRINC president Lucian Pugliaresi is set to be a keynote speaker at an upcoming Worshipful Company of Fuellers workshop in London.
Energy Policy Research Asia Policy Research Analyst Dominic Pugliaresi has published the second installment of his Letter from China series. Dominic is based in Nanjing, China, and has spent time researching and analyzing China’s energy policies across a range of issues. This short document focuses on the rise and trending fall of the small scale “Teapot Refiners” in China’s crude refining apparatus.
Read the letter here, or Dominic’s first letter from August.
One of the perennial questions we ask at EPRINC is “What contributes most to electricity prices?” Bad policies, generation mix, or rising demand? This week’s chart takes a closer look at this question by comparing the 20-year increase in average electricity prices across all sectors in the 50 states. This interactive chart answers this question.
On Friday, The Trump Administration cleared the way for oil drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), in line with the Administration’s policy of aggressive leasing of federal lands, codified in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Around the time of the budget reconciliation process, EPRINC prepared a report modeling how much revenue an increase in federal leasing could bring to the US government. At a static oil price forecast of $70/barrel, the estimated increase in revenue was $100 billion over 10 years, primarily coming from the Continental Lower 48 and Gulf of America.
Read the full report here, or check out EPRINC’s testimony on the matter.
On October 23, 2025, Research Director Max Pyziur presented EPRINC’s research on the reliance of Central European states on Russian petroleum products and implications for the war and post war rebuilding. Pyziur emphasized that despite large European initial reliance on Russian fuels, US maritime exports have played a critical role in displacing Russian products. A swift return of Russian refining capacity any time soon remains unlikely, and Russia is likely to remain with transportation fuel shortages due to wartime interruptions.
The presentation can be found here.
On September 25, 2025, Energy Policy Research Foundation’s President Lucian Pugliaresi provided the scene-setting speech at the Heritage Foundation’s workshop, “Unlocking Affordable Energy: The Plan to Solve America’s Energy Crisis.” “Power markets represent the challenge to the energy trilemma–they’re no longer affordable, reliable, and sustainable,” remarked Mr. Pugliaresi. “Fixing our electric power system is job No.1. I encourage you to join our Power Vision 2030 program.”
Link to the recording of the event can be found here.
His slide deck can be accessed here.
On September 4, 2025, Energy Policy Research Foundation Distinguished Fellow Michael Lynch was published in Forbes. His article, entitled “Shale Oil Pessimism Could Be Overdone“, included a quote from another Distinguished Fellow, Trisha Curtis, in her piece “US Shale Oil Dynamics in a Low Price Environment” published by the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies.
The Energy Policy Research Foundation has written on this topic before, and has released several pieces discussing how forecasting, particularly oil supply forecasting, is fraught with underestimates. A slide from a recent EPRINC presentation that covers this can be found here.
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Energy Policy Research Foundation Distinguished Fellow Ashutosh Shastri’s perspectives on energy in Europe
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