The United States has long run sizable deficits in its trade of goods and services, with the 2025 deficit reaching $912 billion. The size of these deficits is mitigated by the net value of certain commodity exports, and for most of the prior two decades soybeans were the headline contributor. Beginning in 2021, that position was taken by natural gas.
In 2021, net U.S. natural gas exports reached $30 billion, exceeding soybean net exports by $3 billion for the first time. The lead widened the following year and has held since. Net natural gas exports have ranged between $23 billion and $43 billion annually from 2021 forward; soybean net exports ranged between $16 billion and $34 billion across 2022 to 2025. Twelve years earlier, in 2013, the ranking ran the other way, with soybean net exports roughly three times those of natural gas. The crossover reflects the maturation of U.S. LNG export capacity following the shale-driven production surge that began in the mid-2010s, alongside continued investment in both pipeline and liquefaction infrastructure.
2025 widened the gap further, but through asymmetric policy channels. U.S. soybean exports were curtailed mid-year when China, historically the largest single buyer, suspended purchases for roughly six months in retaliation for tariffs; Brazil and Argentina absorbed much of the displaced demand. Over the same period, European sanctions on Russian pipeline gas continued to redirect demand toward U.S. LNG, with Europe receiving 68% of U.S. LNG cargoes through November 2025 per EIA. The chart captures two commodity stories in a single frame: one increasingly dependent on a single buyer that has spent seven years diversifying its sources, the other underwritten by a structural reordering of global gas flows.
The Energy Policy Research Foundation and the Institute for Energy Research cohosted a full-day, in-person workshop, Dominating Power: Charting the Next Decade of America’s Electricity Growth at the World Bank Headquarters in Washington, D.C.
This conference was part of EPRINC’s Power Vision 2030 Series. Its purpose was to inform the policymakers and industry stakeholders of the challenges and potential remedies to achieve both affordability and reliability for the U.S. power sector in light of surging demand from the AI economy and the manufacturing renaissance. As part of our ongoing mission, the Energy Policy Research Foundation remains committed to addressing critical policy choices facing all segments of the U.S. energy sector.
This event featured discussions on the central tasks necessary to meet U.S. growing power demand, major cost and reliability challenges, and realistic pathways to overcome them. U.S. Department of Energy Assistant Secretary Katie Jereza, pictured with EPRINC President Lucian Pugliaresi and IER President Tom Pyle, delivered keynote remarks. The panels centered around the following panels:
A writeup of the workshop can be found here. The slides used during the workshop are here.
The Energy Policy Research Foundation (EPRINC) is pleased to announce the appointment of two new Distinguished Fellows: Dominick Blue and Dr. Kang Wu . These accomplished professionals bring extensive expertise in global energy markets, infrastructure resilience, and emerging technologies to EPRINC’s research initiatives.
Dominick Blue brings a unique blend of technical expertise and leadership experience to EPRINC, where his research focuses on energy resilience, reliability, and the secure integration of emerging technologies into the power sector. His work examines critical intersections of AI and data center demand, grid modernization, nuclear sector revival, and gas-to-power infrastructure. Before joining EPRINC, Dominick held senior leadership roles in infrastructure, technology, and risk management, and served as a U.S. Marine Corps Chief Warrant Officer Two in CBRN Defense.
Dr. Kang Wu joins EPRINC with decades of experience in energy demand, supply, trade, and policy across the oil, gas, petrochemical, and power sectors. Based in Singapore, Dr. Wu has held senior positions at S&P Global Energy, the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC), and the East–West Center, among others. His research expertise spans global macroeconomic trends, market outlooks, and energy transition dynamics, with particular emphasis on the Asia-Pacific, Middle East, and global energy security.
We are absolutely thrilled to welcome Dr. Wu and Dominick to our team of Distinguished Fellows. Their complementary expertise—spanning global energy markets, emerging technologies, and infrastructure resilience—will significantly enhance EPRINC’s capacity to provide timely, rigorous analysis on the most pressing energy policy challenges facing decision-makers today. The addition of these Distinguished Fellows underscores the Energy Policy Research Foundation’s commitment to expanding its research portfolio and delivering actionable insights across the full spectrum of energy policy issues, from traditional markets to the energy transition and next-generation infrastructure needs.
Read more about the members of EPRINC’s team, or review their full bios below.
Dominick Blue, Distinguished Fellow
Dominick Blue is a Distinguished Fellow at the Energy Policy Research Foundation (EPRINC), where his research focuses on energy resilience, reliability, and the secure integration of emerging technologies into the power sector. His current work examines the intersection of advanced computing, infrastructure planning, and national energy security. Dominick’s research portfolio includes analysis of AI and data center electricity demand—forecasting regional load growth, reliability implications, siting dynamics, and market coordination. He also leads studies on grid modernization and energy security, assessing resilience investments, interconnection constraints, and federal–state coordination under higher load scenarios. His additional work explores the revival of the U.S. nuclear sector, financing and licensing pathways for advanced reactors, and rebuilding domestic manufacturing capacity to support the nuclear supply chain. Further research areas include gas-to-power infrastructure, pipeline and turbine capacity, and the role of gas in maintaining reliability within a diversified generation mix. Across these topics, Dominick focuses on translating complex technical findings into accessible policy insights for decision-makers at DOE, FERC, and state regulatory agencies. Before joining EPRINC, Dominick held senior leadership roles in infrastructure, technology, and risk management, including Managing Partner and Director of Client Innovation for private investment and global critical infrastructure firms, respectively. A former U.S. Marine Corps Chief Warrant Officer Two in CBRN Defense, he brings a mission-driven perspective to energy resilience and safety. He holds a Masters of Business from the University of Southern California and has completed graduate studies in Computer Science at Georgia Tech, with research interests in AI systems, resilient infrastructure, and energy transition security.
Dr. Kang Wu, Distinguished Fellow
Dr. Kang Wu has decades of research and consulting experience spanning energy demand, supply, trade, policy, energy transition, and energy security—particularly in the oil, gas, petrochemical, and power sectors. Based in Singapore, he currently collaborates with JLC Network Technology Co., Ltd., the National University of Singapore, and other organizations on cross-commodity and energy transition research, with a particular focus on global macroeconomic trends as well as oil and gas market outlooks. From 2018 to 2025, Dr. Wu worked at S&P Global Commodity Insights (renamed S&P Global Energy in November 2025), holding vice president and other senior roles with responsibility for global macroeconomics, oil demand, market risk assessment, and Asia-focused energy analytics. Before that, he served as Director of Markets & Industrial Development and Senior Research Fellow at the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC) in Riyadh, where he led research on global oil, gas, and coal markets and industrial development, with a particular focus on the Middle East, South Asia, and North Africa. Earlier in his career, Dr. Wu was Vice Chairman for Asia at FGE, an international energy consultancy, and spent two decades as a Senior Fellow and Research Leader at the East–West Center in the US. In these roles, he conducted extensive research on economic development, oil and gas markets, energy security, power sectors, decarbonization, and other environmental issues across the Asia-Pacific, Middle East, Western Hemisphere, and other regions, all within a global context. Dr. Wu is a frequent speaker at international conferences, forums, workshops, seminars, webinars, and training programs. He is the author or co-author of numerous research papers, analytical reports, project studies, journal articles, books, book chapters, and other publications. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa.
On December 4, 2025, EPRINC Research Director Max Pyziur delivered address at the ICIS 19th Annual Pan American Base Oils and Lubricants Conference in Jersey City, NJ. Titled “U.S. Energy & Economic Policy – Geopolitical & Financial Stress Points – Select Views,” the presentation provided comprehensive analysis of critical energy policy issues facing the Second Trump Administration.
Pyziur’s presentation covered major energy initiatives including efforts to expand oil and gas leasing on federal lands, the potential repeal of the 2009 Endangerment Finding, and policies promoting U.S. energy dominance. The analysis examined the Trump administration’s sanctions policy toward Russia, the effectiveness of Ukrainian attacks on Russian refining infrastructure, and recent U.S. and EU sanctions impacting Russian crude oil markets. Pyziur highlighted how European energy imports have successfully displaced Russian supplies, with U.S. exports of crude oil, petroleum products, and LNG playing a critical role in European energy security.
The presentation also addressed indicators of macroeconomic risks, including analysis of gold prices, tanker traffic through strategic chokepoints, and potential headwinds in private credit markets. Pyziur concluded with observations on energy transitions, emphasizing that hydrocarbons remain essential for producing civilization’s key materials—steel, cement, fertilizer, and plastics—and provided an overview of U.S. hydrocarbon markets in the context of the North American petroleum renaissance.
The full presentation can be found here.
Residential electricity prices went up in most states between August 2024 and August 2025, but the size of the increase was very different across the country.
Energy Policy Research Foundation President Lucian Pugliaresi has been asked to speak at the Worshipful Company of Fuellers’ Duke of Edinburgh Future Energy Conference on December 2, 2025. This is the fourth conference in this series, and will cover a wide range of issues. From the Fuellers’ website:
“Chaired by the Master Fueller, the conference features a dynamic programme of keynote speeches and high-level panel discussions tackling the most pressing issues shaping the future of energy. Held under the Chatham House Rule, the forum welcomes senior leaders from across the energy, finance and technology sectors, both from the UK and internationally, alongside members of the Fuellers and other City of London Livery Companies. As with the Fuellers’ membership itself, the conference is open to anyone with a professional or personal interest in energy.”
More information about this event and the RSVP link can be found here.
Energy Policy Research Foundation Distinguished Fellow Francois Baird has been published in American Greatness, in a piece entitled “American Energy Diplomacy Can Spur Human Flourishing in Africa and Counter Beijing and Moscow”. This article can be found on the American Greatness website, here.
On November 13, 2025, EPRINC Research Director Max Pyziur and researcher Matthew Sawoski presented “The Three Seas Initiative Paradigm: Examining the Possibilities from Energy to Security” at the CUSUR Forum held at The Bush Institute/Texas A&M in Washington, DC.
The presentation provided a comprehensive analysis of the Three Seas Initiative (3SI), a strategic cooperation framework connecting thirteen Central European countries between the Baltic, Adriatic, and Black Seas. Drawing on EPRINC’s September 2023 report “The Three Seas Initiative: An Introduction and Energy Security Assessment,” Pyziur and Sawoski examined the region’s economic development, energy security challenges, and infrastructure financing obstacles.
The analysis revealed that while the 3SI region comprises 20% of Europe’s population and 25% of its land area, it accounts for only 16% of European GDP, with per capita GDP at approximately 80% of the European average. However, the region demonstrates stronger economic growth (2.6% annually) compared to the broader European Union (1.1%), alongside significantly higher freight transport capacity and agricultural output relative to its economic size.
A central focus of EPRINC’s research was an analysis of the “Priority Projects” 3SI had identified as key infrastructure initiatives for the economic health and security of the region. Whereas transport projects showed some progress, EPRINC’s analysis showed consistent lack of funding for energy security projects, which was tied directly to political and security problems European leaders have experienced in the aftermath of February 2022.
Pyziur and Sawoski presented a theory for the lack of funding in various pathways, and made recommendations for what would need to be done to bring 3SI less out of the realm of an organizing idea to organization in reality.
Looking forward, Pyziur and Sawoski recommended that U.S. policymakers emphasize the geostrategic importance of 3SI, support balanced energy security considerations within EU policy frameworks, maintain robust U.S. LNG export capacity, establish accountability mechanisms for priority project implementation, and strengthen cooperation with Ukraine and other regional partners. They concluded that without systemic changes to energy infrastructure financing, Central Europe’s energy security and independence remain at significant risk.
The presentation can be found here.
On October 8, 2025, Energy Policy Research Distinguished Fellow Ash Shastri was installed as Master of the Worshipful Company of Fuellers in the United Kingdom. The ceremony culminated with a well-attended event and dinner in Drapers’ Hall in London.
More about the Worshipful Company of Fuellers is on their website, and a writeup of the event can be found here and on their LinkedIn page here.
The Energy Policy Research Foundation congratulates Ash and is very excited for him to be taking on this important position at a critical time. EPRINC president Lucian Pugliaresi is set to be a keynote speaker at an upcoming Worshipful Company of Fuellers workshop in London.
Energy Policy Research Asia Policy Research Analyst Dominic Pugliaresi has published the second installment of his Letter from China series. Dominic is based in Nanjing, China, and has spent time researching and analyzing China’s energy policies across a range of issues. This short document focuses on the rise and trending fall of the small scale “Teapot Refiners” in China’s crude refining apparatus.
Read the letter here, or Dominic’s first letter from August.
One of the perennial questions we ask at EPRINC is “What contributes most to electricity prices?” Bad policies, generation mix, or rising demand? This week’s chart takes a closer look at this question by comparing the 20-year increase in average electricity prices across all sectors in the 50 states. This interactive chart answers this question.
On Friday, The Trump Administration cleared the way for oil drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), in line with the Administration’s policy of aggressive leasing of federal lands, codified in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Around the time of the budget reconciliation process, EPRINC prepared a report modeling how much revenue an increase in federal leasing could bring to the US government. At a static oil price forecast of $70/barrel, the estimated increase in revenue was $100 billion over 10 years, primarily coming from the Continental Lower 48 and Gulf of America.
Read the full report here, or check out EPRINC’s testimony on the matter.
On October 23, 2025, Research Director Max Pyziur presented EPRINC’s research on the reliance of Central European states on Russian petroleum products and implications for the war and post war rebuilding. Pyziur emphasized that despite large European initial reliance on Russian fuels, US maritime exports have played a critical role in displacing Russian products. A swift return of Russian refining capacity any time soon remains unlikely, and Russia is likely to remain with transportation fuel shortages due to wartime interruptions.
The presentation can be found here.
On September 25, 2025, Energy Policy Research Foundation’s President Lucian Pugliaresi provided the scene-setting speech at the Heritage Foundation’s workshop, “Unlocking Affordable Energy: The Plan to Solve America’s Energy Crisis.” “Power markets represent the challenge to the energy trilemma–they’re no longer affordable, reliable, and sustainable,” remarked Mr. Pugliaresi. “Fixing our electric power system is job No.1. I encourage you to join our Power Vision 2030 program.”
Link to the recording of the event can be found here.
His slide deck can be accessed here.
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A series of short executive briefings providing essential background information on often challenging debates on energy and security policy.
A list of personal publications by EPRINC trustee Larry Goldstein
Energy Policy Research Foundation Distinguished Fellow Ashutosh Shastri’s perspectives on energy in Europe
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