• Barclays Bank and EPRINC Host Discussion on Fracking Ban

    On February 13, 2020 in NYC, Barclays Bank and EPRINC hosted a discussion on U.S. petroleum policy  with the  investment community and public sector participants.  EPRINC Distinguished fellow Michael Lynch presented  his findings on the implications of a fracking ban on US production and energy security. EPRINC Distinguished Fellow Trisha Curtis updated the attendees on recent productivity trends in unconventional (shale) oil and gas production in the U.S. Lucian Pugliaresi, EPRINC’s President, moderated the discussion.

    Ahead of the 2020 U.S. Presidential elections, several Democratic candidates have been endorsing policies that, to various degrees, would restrict hydraulic fracturing (HF), a drilling technique that has been largely responsible for the rapid expansion of U.S. oil and gas production. The consequences of such a policy initiative have been evaluated and published by EPRINC. The report was authored by Michael Lynch and can be found here and his presentation slides from the event are available here. Trisha Curtis’ slide presentation can be found here.

    EPRINC would like to thank Harry Mateer of Barclays and Paul Tice of Schroeders for organizing and coordinating this event.

  • The Impact of a Fracking Ban on Shale Production and the Economy by Michael Lynch

    Oil and gas production from the U.S. petroleum resource base has experienced an unprecedented expansion in output which has now positioned the U.S. as the world’s largest oil and gas producer. The North American petroleum production platform is soon to become a net oil and gas exporter to the world market. This rapid expansion in oil and gas production has enhanced U.S. energy security, provided greater stability to the world oil market, and conveyed sustained economic benefits to the national economy. The expansion in output has been possible through a series of advances in extraction technology including the use of hydraulic fracturing which permits oil and gas production from so-called source rock.

    Concerns over carbon emissions from sustained increases in domestic oil and gas production has now been reflected in the 2020 Presidential race, with some candidates and many public interest groups calling for an end to hydraulic fracturing. Operationally, these initiatives would include a ban on oil and gas development on public lands, prohibition of new infrastructure, such as pipelines, export terminals and even refineries. This effort, championed by several Democratic candidates for President would include features of so-called Green New Deal (GND) to quickly move that national energy complex to a fully renewable fuel system.

    In this paper, EPRINC fellow, Michael Lynch, explores the economic consequences of policies aimed at severely reducing U.S. oil and gas production. Such an estimate is important because whatever the merits (benefits) from reducing carbon emissions through oil and gas production constraints, policy makers will have to confront the costs and public acceptance of such a policy.

  • EPRINC Background Note: Outline of NaftoHaz/ GazProm Issues Ahead of 12/31/2019 Transit Agreement Expiration

    EPRINC’s Max Pyziur has created a note describing the background information behind the NaftoHaz/GazProm issues, specifically ahead of the 12/31/2019 transit agreement expiration. This work was penned in December 2019 just before that expiration date.

  • For Discussion: EU Natural Gas Overview Powerpoint by Max Pyziur

    EPRINC’s Max Pyziur created the attached presentation on the EU Natural Gas Overview in September 2019.

  • Emily Medina Publishes Op-Ed on PEMEX in El Financiero

    EPRINC Fellow Emily Medina published an op-ed in El Financiero on December 13th, 2019, and translated the piece to English for EPRINC. The op-ed, entitled “Should PEMEX Assume All the Risk?” can be found here, and the original Spanish-language version can be found on the El Financiero website here.

  • EPRINC Welcomes Salvador Beltran-del-Rio as a New Distinguished Fellow

    EPRINC is excited to announce the addition of Salvador Beltran-del-Rio as a Distinguished Fellow. Salvador is Dean of the School of Government and Economics, Universidad Panamericana.  He has 30 years of leadership experience in public and private sectors in Mexico where he engaged in the energy sector as well as on various areas at national-international level. More of Salvador’s background can be found here.

  • Emily Medina on Think Tech Hawaii, “Energy in America Program”

    Emily Medina was interviewed recently on Think Tech Hawaii. Some clips from that broadcast can be found below:

     

    Emily on the attack on the Saudi oil facilities.

     

    Emily on Mexico’s Energy Reform.

  • EPRINC and IEEJ Co-Host Third US – Japan LNG Workshop

    IEEJ and EPRINC are in the third year of a joint assessment of the future role of LNG in Asian power and fuel markets. The effort has been supported by both METI and DOE and is part of the Japan-United States Strategic Energy Partnership (JUSEP). It remains an important joint initiative in supporting the growth of LNG in the Asia Pacific region.

    Among the more important objectives of this joint effort are identifying recent trends and longer-term uncertainties in Asian natural gas markets, proposing joint policy initiatives, and highlighting the critical role of U.S. LNG exports in serving those markets. To this end, EPRINC and IEEJ have co-hosted a workshop that included presentations and discussion on the U.S. LNG value chain, opportunities and challenges for financing the expansion of U.S. LNG exports and the development of new regasification facilities in Asia. The program also explored strategies to bring more liquidity to the financing of U.S. LNG exports.

    The workshop presentations and accompanying discussion will contribute to the final joint IEEJ-EPRINC report and recommendations. These findings and recommendations will be presented at the 8th Annual Producer Consumer Conference on September 28, 2019 in Tokyo, Japan. The agenda for the workshop can be found here, the presentations given that day are here, and the photos from the workshop are here.

    A subsequent workshop was held in Jakarta on August 22, 2019. The presentations from that workshop can be found here.

  • EPRINC Assessment on Mexico’s Oil and Gas Challenges by Rafael Sandrea

    Mexico is an essential piece of the North American petroleum production platform, and Mexico’s oil and gas reserves and production are at a critical crossroads. Oil reserves would be exhausted in ten years and gas reserves in six without massive new capital commitments. Of a total of 465 oil fields discovered, today a handful of ten currently account for nearly two-thirds of all domestic production; likewise, of the 700-plus gas fields discovered, ten account for almost half of all gas production.

    The energy reform measures implemented in Mexico over the last few years, also known as the New Energy Model, offer considerable potential to lift oil and gas production, increase employment and deliver technological advances, and additional revenues for Mexico’s federal, state, and local governments. The New Energy Model has brought new investment into Mexico’s petroleum provinces, and there has been significant investment in seismic surveys and commitments for new wells. This expanded activity in the petroleum sector, entirely from private investment, has led to new discoveries.

    Mexico’s new president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (often referred to as AMLO), has expressed skepticism towards the energy reforms of the previous administration and has halted most initiatives to bring new private capital into the development of Mexico’s oil and gas resources. Although Mexico has not had a full public debate on all aspects of AMLO’s criticism of the New Energy Model, this EPRINC assessment demonstrates that without massive new commitments of capital for petroleum development, Mexico’s oil and gas future is grim.

    The Spanish-language version of the assessment can be found here.

     

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    Revisiting The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)

    The prospect for conflict in the Middle East, pending collapse of production in Venezuela, and turmoil in North Africa all remind us the world oil market still faces substantial threats of disruption.  The North American petroleum renaissance, which has lifted U.S. oil production to the point where net exports are rapidly moving into positive territory, has also opened opportunities for  Congress to sell off a substantial volume of strategic stocks to fund a range of domestic programs. EPRINC has argued that while some adjustments to the reserve size may be justified, on balance, it still plays a critical role in the security of the United States and decisions on the size of the SPR should take the long view. The SPR remains an important strategic asset.

    Given the current geopolitical environment, we are highlighting some previous EPRINC papers published on this topic.  In addition, our friend and colleague, Dr. Carmine Difiglio, has shared with us his insightful analysis of the value of strategic stocks in sustaining economic growth. Professor Difiglio, formerly with the U.S. Department of Energy, is Director of the Istanbul International Center for Energy and Climate (IICEC) at Sabanci Univerity.

    For links to the reports on the SPR, click here

    John Shages, former Deputy Assistant Secretary for Strategic Reserves, writes on Policy Challenges in Managing the Nation’s Strategic Oil Stock  (July 2014).

    For access to the report, click here

    Lucian Pugliaresi of EPRINC and Fred Beach of UT, Austin debate the value of the SPR in the Wall Street  Journal (November 2015).

    For access to the report, click here

    Larry Goldstein and Lucian Pugliaresi of EPRINC comment on Congress’s initiative  to fund health care by reducing the size of the SPR  in Politico (July 2015)

    For access to the report, click here

    Carmine Difiglio’s extensive analysis of the negative consequences of world economic growth from oil supply disruptions. Oil, economic growth and strategic petroleum stocks, Energy Strategy Reviews (2014).

    For access to the report, click here

    Michael Lynch, EPRINC Distinguished Fellow and President of Strategic Energy and Economic Research, Inc. presents a retrospective on the 1979 oil disruption and the role uncertainty and hoarding can play is amplifying the cost of an oil supply disruption. The article was recently published in Forbes and can be found here

Regulatory Reform: The National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA)

On January 10, 2020, the Trump Administration proposed a series of regulatory reforms to streamline compliance with the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA).  For the uninitiated, the  purpose of NEPA is to ensure that environmental factors are weighted equally when compared to other factors in the decision making process for so-called major actions undertaken by federal agencies. 

From the concerns raised by critics in the environmental community, one might conclude that this is a rushed and nefarious initiative  to “gut” environmental reviews. In contrast, critics of the NEPA process point to a  vast number of  projects from the construction of new roads to approval of pipelines that remain tied up in judicial reviews which often have little to do with the merits of the projects.

If you need a reminder that concerns over the NEPA process has been with us for some time, we refer you to “EIS’s vs. the Real World,”  published in the Public Interest by Professor Gene Bardach and EPRINC’s Lucian Pugliaresi back in 1977.  EIS writers at the time, the authors   point out that  the Bureau of Land Management’s agreement to prepare 212 EIS’s in connection with capital investments in rangelands cost in excess of $100 million (ten times the annual budget for the investments themselves during an average year in the early 1970’s). You can find their article here.

Barclays Bank and EPRINC Host Discussion on Fracking Ban

On February 13, 2020 in NYC, Barclays Bank and EPRINC hosted a discussion on U.S. petroleum policy  with the  investment community and public sector participants.  EPRINC Distinguished fellow Michael Lynch presented  his findings on the implications of a fracking ban on US production and energy security. EPRINC Distinguished Fellow Trisha Curtis updated the attendees on recent productivity trends in unconventional (shale) oil and gas production in the U.S. Lucian Pugliaresi, EPRINC’s President, moderated the discussion.

Ahead of the 2020 U.S. Presidential elections, several Democratic candidates have been endorsing policies that, to various degrees, would restrict hydraulic fracturing (HF), a drilling technique that has been largely responsible for the rapid expansion of U.S. oil and gas production. The consequences of such a policy initiative have been evaluated and published by EPRINC. The report was authored by Michael Lynch and can be found here and his presentation slides from the event are available here. Trisha Curtis’ slide presentation can be found here.

EPRINC would like to thank Harry Mateer of Barclays and Paul Tice of Schroeders for organizing and coordinating this event.

The Impact of a Fracking Ban on Shale Production and the Economy by Michael Lynch

Oil and gas production from the U.S. petroleum resource base has experienced an unprecedented expansion in output which has now positioned the U.S. as the world’s largest oil and gas producer. The North American petroleum production platform is soon to become a net oil and gas exporter to the world market. This rapid expansion in oil and gas production has enhanced U.S. energy security, provided greater stability to the world oil market, and conveyed sustained economic benefits to the national economy. The expansion in output has been possible through a series of advances in extraction technology including the use of hydraulic fracturing which permits oil and gas production from so-called source rock.

Concerns over carbon emissions from sustained increases in domestic oil and gas production has now been reflected in the 2020 Presidential race, with some candidates and many public interest groups calling for an end to hydraulic fracturing. Operationally, these initiatives would include a ban on oil and gas development on public lands, prohibition of new infrastructure, such as pipelines, export terminals and even refineries. This effort, championed by several Democratic candidates for President would include features of so-called Green New Deal (GND) to quickly move that national energy complex to a fully renewable fuel system.

In this paper, EPRINC fellow, Michael Lynch, explores the economic consequences of policies aimed at severely reducing U.S. oil and gas production. Such an estimate is important because whatever the merits (benefits) from reducing carbon emissions through oil and gas production constraints, policy makers will have to confront the costs and public acceptance of such a policy.

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