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ENERGY POLICY RESEARCH FOUNDATION

EPRINC studies energy economics and policy issue with special emphasis on oil, natural gas and petroleum product markets. We provide objective and technical analysis on a wide range of energy issues.

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Chart of the Week

Disruptions of Pipelined Gasoline from the U.S. Gulf Coast to the Atlantic Coast

  • On May 21, 2024, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announced sales from the NGSR; they are to take place from May 27th through June 30th. The rationale is “strategically timed and structured to maximize its impact on gasoline prices, helping to lower prices at the pump as Americans hit the road this summer.”

 

  • On May 22, 2024, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced the forecast for the 2024 Hurricane Season that begins June 1 and continues through November 30. This year’s forecast is the most severe that has yet been made, anticipating that there will be between 17 and 25 named storms. Of these, 8 to 13 will be hurricanes with winds exceeding 74 mph. The period from August through September is generally the more intense part of the season.

 

  • Gasoline prices are elevated during spring because of a confluence of events, notably the shift from winter to summer grades, with the latter being more costly to produce. Using reserves, notably the NGSR in this case, possibly reduces pump prices a small amount; but it is important to maintain focus on the need to manage risk and be prepared for events similar to the 2012 Super Storm Sandy disruptions.
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We’re excited to present to you our latest video on global LNG terminal capacity. The animation delves into the significance of LNG for securing and diversifying energy supplies, while also highlighting its positive impact on the US trade balance.

This video is part of the Foundation’s ongoing animation series on critical topics in energy security and energy transition.

EPRINC Distinguished Fellow Michael Lynch has published another piece in Forbes, entitled “Oil Companies Should Listen To Activists—But Skeptically“. Click the link to read the full article on the Forbes website! A PDF of the piece can be found here.

In an interview with Kevin Killough for Just the News, EPRINC’s Max Pyziur discusses the formidable efficiency gains that have been made by data centers helping to deliver increasing loads while questions remain as to their future electricity demand growth. The article, “America’s electricity grid is stressed, and new data centers may put even bigger demands on it“, was published February 18, 2024.

On Tuesday, December 5 2023, Energy Policy Research hosted a workshop called: “Pathways to Net Zero: Electric Power and EVs”. The workshop consisted of two panels to address the central tasks necessary to proceed with an energy transition that relies upon a rapid electrification of the national economy. We expect our attendees to participate in the discussion. Experts that are undertaking assessments on operational risks to the national grid from EPA energy mandates and the acceleration in power demand for EVs and other electrification proposals participated, as well as representatives from the automotive industry.

Our existing assessments on “Net Zero” have outlined cost risks, technology constraints, and regulatory obstacles for a rapid build out of the electric grid, including power requirements to meet demand from the expansion of EVs. Sound policy will require a careful understanding of the challenges ahead.

An agenda from the workshop is here, and some of the presentations that were given at the workshop can be found below.

EPRINC Trustee Larry Goldstein was quoted in two separate articles, one by CNBC and one by the New York Times, on the topics of the recent acquisitions by oil majors ExxonMobil and Chevron. Links to the articles are below:

CNBC – Why Exxon and Chevron are doubling down on fossil fuel energy with big acquisitions by Cat Clifford

Larry Goldstein (larryg@eprinc.org) is an internationally recognized authority on petroleum markets, and has extensive advisory relationships with energy companies, research institutes, and government agencies. He is a former president of the Petroleum Industry Research Foundation (PIRINC) now the Energy Policy Research Foundation (EPRINC), its successor organization, and continues to be on EPRINC’s Board of Trustees. He was a founder and president of the PIRA Energy Group, a major energy consulting firm that was acquired by S&P Global in 2016.

On Monday October 23, 2o23, RealClear Energy published an article titled “Streamline the Regulatory Process to Expedite U.S. LNG Exports”, coauthored by EPRINC President Lucian Pugliaresi and President & CEO of The USLNG Association (“LNG Allies”) Fred Hutchison. In the article, they make a strong case against “the current slow pace of the Department of Energy’s U.S. LNG export authorizations to countries with which the U.S. does not have a free trade agreement (FTA) that includes natural gas—which, by the way, includes all of Europe, including the United Kingdom and Türkiye.” They argue that “U.S. LNG exports are making substantial contributions to U.S. trade balances and domestic employment and bolstering the energy security of our allies. The disruption of pipeline gas shipments to Europe following the Russian invasion of Ukraine was a severe blow to European economic growth and security.”

 

The full article can be found on the RealClear Energy website, here.

On October 23, EPRINC Director of Energy Transition Research Batt Odgerel presented at the American Energy Transition Forum. His presentation, titled “Understanding the Cost, Risk, and Scale Challenge of the Net Zero Transition”, can be found here.

According to the American Energy Transition Forum’s website:

“The American Energy Transition Forum will explore the tools and technologies which will propel this decarbonization journey. The event will gather like-minded stakeholders from the public, business, scientific and innovation sectors. The event will tackle various decarbonization pathways, such as expansion of renewable energy production, carbon capture and storage technology, hydrogen, ammonia and advanced biofuels. Although one of the ultimate goals seems to be fossil fuel substitution with renewables, such sources of energy as LNG cannot be left out as part of successful energy transition. In addition to energy resources, such important areas as climate-tech investments, digitized solutions for energy transition acceleration, energy efficiency and many more topics crucial to the decarbonization journey will be addressed at the event.”

On Wednesday, October 18 2023, EPRINC President Lucian Pugliaresi participated in the Hudson Institute’s panel discussion entitled: “The Arab Oil Embargo 50 Years Later: Lessons Learned and Missed Opportunities”. Specifically, Lou was a member of the panel that focused on “Lessons Learned” from the embargo.

 

A recording of the event and more information about the discussion are available on the Hudson Institute’s website, here.

On Wednesday, October 11, Eurasia Foundation hosted an opening ceremony for 25 new Young Professionals Network (YPN) fellows. Batt Odgerel, Director of Energy Transition Research at Energy Policy Research, joined “a diverse array of professional backgrounds, including consulting firms, think tanks, universities, governmental, non-governmental, and international organizations. It includes fellows from Accenture Federal Services, American Councils for International Education, American Enterprise Institute, American University, the Atlantic Council, Chemonics International, Dataminr, the Foreign Service, Freedom House, Georgetown University, Hudson Institute, International Business Initiatives, Johns Hopkins University, National Endowment for Democracy, Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, Solidarity Center, TD International, and the World Bank Group’s CGAP. The new cohort also represents six countries: Armenia, China, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Singapore, and the United States. All have extensive education, work experience, and language skills relating to the Eurasia region.”

See more here.

EPRINC is excited to announce the new Gaskins Center for Energy Security Studies, named after EPRINC Chairman Dr. Darius W. Gaskins Jr. and established to explore strategies to sustain and enhance American energy security. The Gaskins Center Brochure contains more information about the Center and Dr. Gaskins’s extraordinary accomplishments.

EPRINC Distinguished Fellow Ivan Sandrea has penned an article entitled “Envisioning the Energy Landscape of Distant Futures”. He writes:

“In contemplating the energy system’s distant future, we encounter a range of outcomes that require a paradigm shift, if not a quantum leap, to satisfy future energy needs. In this concise essay, I invite exploration into the potential visage of energy demand and supply – be it a century or even half a millennium from now. As Nils Bohr aptly put it, predicting the future is an intricate endeavor, particularly when it pertains to what lies ahead. So, I am not predicting the future.”

Ivan’s article can be found here.

On September 27-29, 2023, the 8th HAEE Energy Transition Symposium, entitled “Rethinking Energy: A secure and sustainable future” was hosted by the Hellenic Association for Energy Economics at the French Institute of Greece. EPRINC President Lucian Pugliaresi moderated a panel on “Hydrocarbon Energy Transition Pathways”. The discussion covered leveraging national resources and exploration phases, an update on achieving climate neutrality in natural gas networks, and hydrocarbons and renewable energy equilibrium towards 2050. The other panelists were Aristofanis Stefatos, CEO, Hellenic Hydrocarbons & Energy Resources Management Company SA and Ioannis Maris, Country Representative Greece, Trans Adriatic Pipeline AG.

A video recording of the panel can be found here.

The full overview of the event, including an agenda and a full list of speakers from the event, is here.

Other video recordings of other panels from the event can be found on HAEE’s Youtube account, here.

Lahaina Tragedy: Some Preliminary Lessons for Policymakers and Global Resilience” is a short article prepared by Jeffrey M. Kissel, an EPRINC Trustee and former CEO of HawaiiGas. He lived in Hawaii for 50 years and is now the Executive Vice President and CFO of Global Infrastructure Solutions, a diversified Engineering and Construction company. Jeffrey knows Hawaii, power systems, and infrastructure from long experience, and penned this article to provide his insight to the discussion of the fires in Lahaina.

Acknowledging their shared history and aspirations for regional economic prosperity and security, the Three Seas Initiative (3SI) was formally announced in 2015 in a joint declaration by the Polish and Croatian Presidents. It has quickly grown to its current size of twelve-member Central European countries with Greece’s membership (as thirteenth) to be announced at the September 6th-7th 2023 3SI Summit and Business Forum in Bucharest Romania. 3SI seeks to coordinate regional economic policy focusing on the development of digital, energy, and transportation infrastructure in the region.
Energy Policy Research’s next FYI In Brief briefing, “The Three Seas Initiative (3SI):  An Introduction And Energy Security Assessment,” is being published one day ahead of the 3SI’s annual summit. The briefing seeks to provide policymakers with an overview and insights into the 3SI’s economy, history, energy and energy security issues, Priority Projects, as well as a set of policy recommendations.
The FYI In Brief briefing can be found here.

During the last two weeks of August 2023, Energy Policy Research’s president, Lucian Pugliaresi, was invited to Italy and the United Kingdom to discuss our recent research and analysis on the headwinds to “Net Zero.”  The visit began with a visit to Erice, Italy at the Ettore Majorana Foundation and Centre for Scientific Culture named for a Italian physicist, born in Sicily in 1906. The Centre is situated in the old pre-medieval city of Erice. He then visited London and made a presentation at the Institute for Economic Affairs and also at the two day meeting of the  Parliamentary Security Forum attended by over 250 parliamentarians from around the world. Among topics discussed were strategies to address cyber security, human trafficking, cyber security, money laundering, and the “challenges to Net Zero.”  The parliamentary meetings were hosted by the House of Commons.  The presentations are summarized in the attached power point.

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