At the onset of the Hormuz crisis at the end of February 2026, the United States held 855 million barrels (MBs) of crude oil in storage: 440 MBs commercial and 415 MBs in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). As of June 5, combined stocks have fallen 79 MBs. The drawdown has not been shared equally: the SPR is down 65 MBs to 350 MBs, while commercial inventories have declined only 14 MBs to 426 MBs.
The chart tracks weekly stock changes since January 2. Through mid-April, inventory moves were mixed. Since late April, both components have drawn down simultaneously every week. With the April ceasefire now breaking down and U.S.-Iran exchanges resuming over the past two days, the prospect of a near-term restoration of Hormuz commodity flows has receded further. The IEA’s coordinated release window closes in mid-July; Q3 global draws are projected to accelerate beyond Q2 levels. The remaining buffer is narrowing.
Energy Policy Research Fellow Diana Furchtgott-Roth’s review of “Recession: The Real Reasons Economies Shrink and What to Do About It” by Tyler Goodspeed has been published on the Wall Street Journal website. The review can be found here.
Energy Policy Research’s Director of Research Programs (Downstream, Transportation Fuels, Natural Gas, and Electricity) Max Pyziur was interviewed by UkrInform, Ukraine’s official news agency, on impacts of the attacks on Russian oil facilities. The article (in Ukrainian) can be accessed here.
EPRINC’s Max Pyziur, Director of Research Programs, was quoted in Fox Business by Simon Constable in the April 29, 2026 article “What a UAE Exit from OPEC Means and Why It Matters.”
The article covers the UAE’s announcement that it will leave OPEC and OPEC+ after 59 years of membership, a watershed moment in the history of the cartel. The UAE, which produced 3.6 million barrels per day before the recent U.S.-Israel war with Iran, has announced plans to ramp output to as much as 5 million barrels per day by 2027. It also operates its own 249-mile pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, giving it significant strategic flexibility outside the OPEC quota system.
Pyziur explained the economic logic: outside the cartel, the Emirates will be able to produce more oil, and breaking away makes sense given the output constraints OPEC had imposed on them. The article also raises the prospect of a domino effect, with Iraq potentially following suit: a development that could weigh significantly on medium-term global oil prices.
On May 18th, 2026, Energy Policy Research President Lucian Pugliaresi and Trustee Ivan Sandrea contributed spoken remarks at a CEBRI (Brazilian Center for International Relations) webinar entitled “The Trump Oil Shock: Impacts in the Industry and the World Economy”.
CEBRI writes: “Rising tensions in the Middle East, shifts in global energy policies, and ongoing transformations in hydrocarbons markets have brought oil back to the center of debates on economic stability and international security. Amid geopolitical uncertainty involving Iran, changes in production dynamics across the Americas, and evolving priorities among major powers, global markets are entering a new period of volatility, with direct impacts on prices, investment decisions, and trade flows.
Against this backdrop, this webinar proposes to discuss how recent geopolitical shocks are reconfiguring global oil markets and what their potential implications may be for the industry, the world economy, and Brazil, bringing together experts to examine the effects of this new environment on the energy sector and on the international economic order.”
More information about the event can be found in this flyer.
EPRINC Fellow Michael Lynch has been published once again in Forbes, this time in an article titled “Gulf Oil Production Could Be Restored Quickly“. His article, published May 4th 2026, covers the oil supply shocks from the US conflict with Iran and the subsequent issues at the Strait of Hormuz and addresses the question: will Gulf oil producers be able to restore oil supply globally once the Strait is reopened?
EPRINC’s research was cited this week in Politico, in a story by Scott Waldman examining how President Trump’s blockade of Iran is disrupting energy and commodity markets beyond oil — including fertilizer and helium supplies.
Politico drew on EPRINC’s Chart of the Week data to note that while the U.S. leads global helium production at 44 percent, Qatar is the second-largest producer at 35 percent — and that war damage to Qatari facilities could take years to repair, tightening an already thin market.
Read the full article here.
The Chart of the Week referenced in the article can be found in full here.
EPRINC Director of Research Max Pyziur was quoted in La Tercera — one of Chile’s leading national newspapers — in a piece surveying how the Strait of Hormuz closure is reshaping daily life around the world. Author Diego Quivira spoke with economists and energy experts to document the on-the-ground effects: Egypt ordering commercial establishments to close by 9:00 PM, Thailand asking public employees to dress lighter to reduce air conditioning loads, and Pakistan and Bangladesh suspending in-person schooling to conserve energy.
Pyziur explained that while crude oil can still exit the Gulf via pipeline, the same is not true for other commodities: LNG, fertilizers, and helium have no comparable overland alternative. He highlighted the particular severity of the disruption for countries like Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, China, and India, which depend on Qatari LNG for electricity generation — and noted that India faces a compounding problem, as gas is also a feedstock for agricultural fertilizers.
EPRINC’s Special Focus page on the Strait of Hormuz crisis tracks the underlying data in detail, including tanker traffic, benchmark prices, LNG exports, fertilizer markets, and helium supply.
The Energy Policy Research Foundation is pleased to announce the release of Power Vision 2050: Creating a Sustainable Pathway to Secure the American Economy (Version 3.0), an expansion of EPRINC’s ongoing multi-year initiative to help policymakers navigate the mounting challenges facing the U.S. electric power sector.
Building on three workshops and the foundational research conducted under the Power Vision 2030 project, this updated framework extends the analytical horizon to mid-century and substantially broadens the initiative’s scope.
The near-term pressures documented in the 2030 project have not abated. U.S. electricity consumption is projected to grow by 30 to 50 percent or more by 2050, driven by the electrification of transportation and buildings, industrial expansion, and the relentless power appetite of AI infrastructure and data centers. Against this backdrop, premature retirements of dispatchable generation continue to compress reserve margins in key regions, with NERC and independent researchers flagging serious reliability risks in the PJM and MISO footprints.
The Power Vision 2050 framework retains the 2030 project’s core focus on near-term natural gas deployment, regulatory reform, and transmission efficiency, while adding an extended set of research questions oriented toward the structural transformation of the grid over the coming quarter century.
The most significant addition to the 2050 initiative is a dedicated research strand on nuclear energy. The existing U.S. fleet, the largest source of carbon-free baseload electricity in the country, faces an aging profile, with the oldest units reaching end-of-life well before 2050 absent license renewals. Supply chain constraints and protracted licensing timelines have slowed the deployment of new capacity, even as interest in advanced reactor designs and small modular reactors continues to grow.
Power Vision 2050 will examine what policy, regulatory, and financing reforms are needed to accelerate deployment of both conventional and advanced nuclear technologies; how the United States can maintain its competitive position in global nuclear markets where China and Russia are aggressively expanding their export footprints; and what role innovative applications, including maritime nuclear propulsion and off-grid industrial power, might play in reinforcing energy security.
The decisions made in the next five to ten years on permitting reform, fuel supply chain investment, workforce development, and advanced reactor commercialization will largely determine whether the United States arrives at 2050 with a power system capable of sustaining its economy. EPRINC’s Power Vision 2050 initiative will convene industry experts, academics, and policymakers to address these questions with the analytical rigor they demand.
The full Power Vision 2050 project overview is available here. For inquiries, contact EPRINC at contact@eprinc.org.
“I’ve known EPRINC through most of its long history. I am delighted to join my dear colleague and friend Lou Pugliaresi and the EPRINC team to help move vital energy and materials thinking to the next stage.” — Michelle Michot FossDr. Michot Foss is an Advisor at L’Acadie Network and a collaborator at Rice University’s Carbon Hub, focused on commercializing advanced carbon materials. She retired as chief energy economist and head of the Bureau of Economic Geology’s Center for Energy Economics at the University of Texas at Austin, where she was also an executive instructor at McCombs School of Business and an ExxonMobil Instructor of Excellence. She created the Bureau’s Center for Energy Economics while at the University of Houston, where she served as a research professor and Shell Interdisciplinary Scholar. Earlier in her career she served as director of research at investment bank Simmons & Company International and at Rice Center. Her career research includes major projects for the Texas Comptroller, U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy, World Bank, Japan’s External Trade Organization, and the Saudi Arabia-led Future Minerals Forum. She led industry research consortia for U.S.–Mexico natural gas trade and LNG development in North America, and implemented technical assistance programs sponsored by USAID and the State Department’s Bureau of Energy Resources in more than 20 countries, including Central Asia, Ukraine, West Africa, Uganda, India, Bangladesh, and Mexico. Her capacity-building program New Era in Oil, Gas & Power Value Creation was recognized twice by World Oil Awards for excellence. Dr. Michot Foss serves on the board of directors of Consumer Energy Alliance and on advisory councils for Energy Intelligence Group, the North American Energy Standards Board, and Missouri University of Science & Technology’s O’Keefe Center for Critical Minerals. She is past president of both the International Association for Energy Economics and the United States Association for Energy Economics, where she was named a senior fellow. She holds degrees from the University of Louisiana at Lafayette, Colorado School of Mines, and the University of Houston.
All of us at the Energy Policy Research Foundation mourns the loss of Professor Antonio Zichichi (15 October 2029 – 9 February 2026). He was one of Italy’s most distinguished physicists and a major figure in 20th century nuclear and subnuclear physics. We offer our condolences to Professor Zichichi’s family, friends, and the global scientific community who all benefitted from his unique contributions and accomplishments. EPRINC has had the privilege to present our research before the annual meeting of the Ettore Majorana in recent years.
An obituary from the Pontifical Academy of Sciences, where Zichichi held a membership since 2000, can be found here.
Also, a tribute from the San Grasso Science institute honoring Zichichi is here.
On Wednesday February 11, 2026, new Energy Policy Research Foundation Distinguished Fellow Diana Furchtgott-Roth testified during the House Committee on Space and Technology’s Research and Technology Subcommittee Hearing “Accelerating Progress: U.S. Surface Transportation Research.” Her testimony can be found here, and the full overview of the hearing with the other testimony is here.
She was joined by Hon. Greg Winfree, Agency Director of theTexas A&M Transportation Institute and Dr. Henry Liu, Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Director of the Center for Connected and Automated Transportation for Mcity and the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute (UMTRI)
Diana’s testimony covered suggestions for how to prioritize transportation research, including automating vehicles to reduce collisions, protecting GPS systems, and incentivizing the domestic production of transportation equipment and components like batteries to avoid espionage from the nation’s enemies. A video of the entire hearing is available on the Committee’s YouTube channel, here.
Diana can be reached at her Energy Policy Research email address, Dianafr@eprinc.org.
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