EPRINC briefing
Strait of Hormuz and Oil Chokepoints
36 publications
Briefing summary
The crisis escalated again through late summer. Iran ruled out talks to extend the June 17 memorandum of understanding that was meant to open the strait while a nuclear deal was negotiated. After a month-long lull, fighting flared in early September: on September 2 the U.S. struck two Iranian government tankers under a new "tanker for tanker" policy aimed at deterring Iranian attacks on shipping, and by September 9 it had sunk five more near Kharg Island and in the Gulf of Oman, while Iran said it attacked 10 ships near the strait and fired missiles at U.S. forces in Jordan. Traffic remains a fraction of the roughly 130 daily transits before February 28; Windward counted 12 transits on September 22, several with transponders off, and the Joint Maritime Information Center still rates the strait's risk as severe, citing possible drifting mines.
The bypass routes have now come under attack as well. Drones struck Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline on September 10, and Riyadh shut the line on September 11, halting loadings at Yanbu. The pipeline had been rerouting about 4 MB/d, roughly 4% of global supply, to the Red Sea. With some European cargoes cancelled, Brent settled at $108.75 on September 15, its highest since May 19, about 54% above its July 2 low of $70.65. The pipeline restarted September 22 and Brent touched $97.36, then settled at $103.08 on September 23 after Iran's president vowed never to surrender. Tehran has signaled it would reopen the strait within seven days if Washington moves toward lifting the blockade, but no framework has been agreed.
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve has continued to fall, though more slowly than projected in July. It held 285.0 million barrels in the week ending September 11, the lowest since November 1982 and 39.9% of authorized capacity. That is 31.5 million barrels below the July 10 level, or about 14 days of U.S. consumption at 20.1 MB/d. The strain has shifted downstream: U.S. diesel is above $6 per gallon, past the June 2022 record, with refiners running at 98% utilization (see U.S. Diesel Price Spikes and Why an Export Ban Would Backfire).
What has happened to tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz?
ChartChoke Points under Fire: War-Driven Disruptions to Global Tanker TrafficRecent reports that Middle East crude exports have returned to pre-war levels need a closer reading. According to Kpler data reported this week,…Chart 2026-34ChartThe Hormuz crisis has entered a new eraThe mid-June resumption of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was the largest since the strait closed on March 5, 2026. Transits peaked…Chart 2026-25ChartStrait of Hormuz Closure: Tanker Traffic, Benchmark Prices, and InventoryBenchmark price panel showing Brent crude surge past $100/bbl.Chart 2026-10ChartMideast Military Aggression, Hormuz Strait Tanker Traffic, and Crude Oil PricesJune 2025 analysis of earlier Hormuz tensions and tanker traffic patterns.Chart 2025-25ChartMideast Military Aggression and OPEC+ Crude Production Management and Their Impact on Red Sea and Hormuz Straits Tanker Traffic and Crude Oil Prices2024 chokepoint disruption patterns as historical context for the current closure.Chart 2024-40ChartTanker Traffic: Bab el-Mandab Strait vs Cape of Good HopeRed Sea disruptions as a precursor event to the current Hormuz closure.Chart 2024-08ChartLNG Suez Canal Traffic in PerspectiveWhile Europe-bound Qatari LNG cargoes have subsided, LNG traffic through the Suez Canal continues to represent a substantial percentage of total LNG…Chart 6PressEPRINC’s Max Pyziur Interviewed by Salon.com About the Current Status of the Hormuz Closure and Its Ramifications on Global Energy Flows and PricesEPRINC’s Max Pyziur was interviewed by Salon.com about the current status of the Hormuz closure and its ramifications on global energy flows…Jun 2026
How are oil, natural gas, fertilizer, and other commodities responding?
ChartU.S. Household Gasoline Costs by State and Income: March to August 2026Rising fuel prices are a recurring political concern, especially in an election year. Since the start of the Iran War, the average U.S. retail price…Chart 2026-38ChartU.S. Diesel Price Spikes and Why an Export Ban Would BackfireWith little letup in hostilities and substantial damage to Persian Gulf and Russian refining capacity, global diesel prices have surged. The U.S.…Chart 2026-32ChartWest Coast Product Receipts: The Jones Act Waiver’s Sixfold SurgeCombined April and May 2026 waterborne receipts of Gulf Coast petroleum products into the U.S. West Coast reached 377 thousand barrels per day,…Chart 2026-27ChartShifts in U.S. Jet Fuel Prices and Commercial Air TravelSince the end of February, U.S. jet fuel prices have risen over 80% to an average of $4.10 per gallon in May, up from the roughly $2.10 average that…Chart 2026-20ChartU.S. Gasoline Prices: Strait of Hormuz Closure vs. the Renewable Fuel StandardComparing U.S. retail regular gasoline price components between January 2024 and April 2026, EPRINC estimates that domestic crude costs have risen…Chart 2026-16ChartStrait of Hormuz Closure: Gasoline and U.S. Fuel PricesAlthough the United States remains largely insulated from the physical shortfalls triggered by the Strait of Hormuz closure, its internationally…Chart 2026-15ChartStrait of Hormuz Closure: The Arithmetic of the Crude Shortfall after Five Weeks of PolicyThis week's chart tracking the policy mitigation efforts and breaking down the alarming headline "20% of global oil supply" into a precise arithmetic problem — showing exactly which offsets are holding the crude market together, which ones depend on Iran's goodwill, and how much margin remains if any single piece fails.Chart 2026-14ChartStrait of Hormuz Closure: Helium and Semiconductor ManufacturingLast week's chart on Qatari helium supply disruption. Qatar produces 35% of global helium—now entirely offline—with cascading effects on semiconductor fabrication, MRI systems, and aerospace. Term contract prices have doubled since the closure began.Chart 2026-13ChartStrait of Hormuz Closure: Nitrogen Based Fertilizers and Disruptions to Food SecurityEarlier chart on the fertilizer supply shock. Roughly one-third of global seaborne fertilizer trade transits Hormuz, and urea prices have surged over 50% since hostilities began, threatening Northern Hemisphere planting.Chart 2026-12ChartStrait of Hormuz Closure: Qatari LNG Curtailment and the Global Gas MarketEarlier chart on the halt of Qatari LNG exports, with nearly 20% of global LNG supply curtailed as force majeure declarations cascade through Qatar's customer base.Chart 2026-11ChartStrait of Hormuz Closure: Tanker Traffic, Benchmark Prices, and InventoryBenchmark price panel showing Brent crude surge past $100/bbl.Chart 2026-10ChartU.S. LNG Export Capacity: Operating and Under ConstructionU.S. export capacity context as global LNG markets scramble for alternatives.Chart 2026-08ChartEuropean Natural Gas Inventories A Late 2025-2026 Winter AssessmentEuropean gas storage levels heading into the disruption, critical given the 20% drop in global LNG supply.Chart 2026-07
What role can the Strategic Petroleum Reserve play?
ChartU.S. Crude Inventories, Strategic and Commercial, in the Wake of HormuzFollowing the Hormuz Strait blockade, U.S. crude oil inventories declined from 855 million barrels at the end of February 2026 to 776 million…Chart 2026-22ChartThe Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) at 50 + 2Comprehensive SPR status and drawdown capacity heading into the current crisis.Chart 2025-40ChartRunning on Empty Revisited: U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Continues to Decline to Historic LowsEarlier warning on SPR depletion trends.Chart 2023-39ChartRunning on Empty: U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Now at Historic LowsOriginal 2022 analysis flagging SPR vulnerability.Chart 2022-36CommentaryRevisiting The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)The prospect for conflict in the Middle East, pending collapse of production in Venezuela, and turmoil in North Africa all remind us the world oil…Jun 2019PressEPRINC Cited in Politico on Iran Blockade and Helium Supply RiskEPRINC’s analysis is referenced in a Politico piece examining the risks an Iran blockade poses to helium supply. Readers can find the full…Apr 2026
How do Iran sanctions relate to this crisis?
ChartIranian Petroleum Exports Under Shifting U.S. Sanctions RegimesUpdated sanctions impact analysis published one week before the crisis.Chart 2026-09ChartIranian Petroleum Exports Under Shifting U.S. Sanctions RegimesOriginal Dec 2024 analysis of sanctions enforcement and Iranian export volumes.Chart 2024-48ChartU.S. Crude Oil & Product Imports from Russia and Venezuela under Shifting Sanctions RegimesBroader sanctions context: how U.S. import patterns shift under geopolitical pressure.Chart 2024-15
What are the broader energy security implications?
ChartRussia Diesel for America: A Deal on PaperOn October 9, President Trump announced an agreement with President Putin to make Russian diesel available to U.S. and global markets, and Treasury…Chart 2026-36Op-EdEnergy Policy Research’s Dominick Blue and Max Pyziur Published in The National Interest on “The End of Voluntary Energy Security: America’s New Doctrine of Active Sovereignty”National Interest piece on the shift from cooperative to unilateral energy security frameworks.Feb 2026
What are the historical precedents for chokepoint disruption?
ChartMideast Military Aggression and OPEC+ Crude Production Management and Their Impact on Red Sea and Hormuz Straits Tanker Traffic and Crude Oil Prices2024 chokepoint disruption patterns as historical context for the current closure.Chart 2024-40ChartTanker Traffic: Bab el-Mandab Strait vs Cape of Good HopeRed Sea disruptions as a precursor event to the current Hormuz closure.Chart 2024-08PressEPRINC Fellow Michael Lynch Published in Forbes: “Gulf Oil Production Could Be Restored Quickly”EPRINC Fellow Michael Lynch examines the prospects for a rapid restoration of Gulf oil production in a new piece published in Forbes. Readers can…May 2026
Further research
ChartU.S. Crude Oil and Product Export Response to Hormuz Closure: The Rotterdam and Tokyo SurgeU.S. crude oil trade, already narrowing on the back of surging domestic production, tightened further in the second quarter of 2026. Net crude…Chart 2026-30ChartU.S. Energy Intensity 1949-2025From 1949 to 2025, U.S. energy efficiency improved at an annualized rate of 1.6%, such that each dollar of inflation-adjusted GDP in 2025 required…Chart 2026-19PressMax Pyziur Cited in Salon’s Russell Payne’s Article on the Hormuz BlockadeJul 2026PressEPRINC’s Max Pyziur Quoted in Chile’s La Tercera on the Human Cost of the Hormuz ClosureEPRINC’s Max Pyziur was quoted in Chile’s La Tercera on the human cost of a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Readers can find…Apr 2026