EPRINC briefing
European Gas Security and Russian Supply
49 publications
Briefing summary
Since mid-2022, U.S. LNG has displaced collapsed Russian pipeline gas in Europe, with U.S. LNG exports rising to 11.7 BCF/d and the European share climbing to 81%; the January 2025 expiry of Ukrainian transit removed a further 1.5 BCF/d, leaving European inventories below trend.
How dependent is Europe on Russian gas and what are the alternatives?
ChartA Mid-2025 Review: Natural Gas in Europe and Ukraine – Three ViewsEuropean natural gas imports have shifted decisively from pipeline gas to LNG, with the United States supplying the bulk of that LNG since mid-2022.Chart 2025-24Commentary“An Imminent Reversal in German Energy Policy?” by Distinguished Fellow Ash ShastriEnergy Policy Research Foundation Distinguished Fellow and Enerstrat Consulting Founder Ash Shastri has penned a timely piece on shifts in price and…Dec 2024ChartOn the Anniversary of Russia’s EscalationOne year after Russia's escalation of its war against Ukraine, LNG became Europe's primary source of natural gas over the course of 2022, and…Chart 2023-09ChartEU Crude Oil Trade: Shifts due to Russia’s WarEU crude oil imports have held relatively steady over the past five years, but Russia's war has reshaped their sources: key EU importers cut Russian…Chart 2023-07ChartLiquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Demand Shift and Diversions from China to EuropeAs European demand for liquefied natural gas rose, cargoes originally destined for China were diverted to European markets.Chart 2022-43ChartEurope – Daily Natural Gas Receipts During 2022Russia's Europe-bound pipeline natural gas exports declined throughout 2022, falling from highs of 15 BCF/d during 2019 through a series of…Chart 2022-38ChartEurope – Recently Reported Monthly Natural Gas ReceiptsEuropean natural gas supply patterns reflect two trends that preceded Russia's February 2022 escalation of military aggression against Ukraine: a…Chart 2022-26ChartEuropean LNG Import Volumes and CapacityEuropean LNG import volumes remain below available regasification capacity, indicating that existing infrastructure provides room for additional…Chart 2022-09CommentaryFor Discussion: EU Natural Gas Overview Powerpoint by Max PyziurEPRINC’s Max Pyziur created the attached presentation on the EU Natural Gas Overview in September 2019.Feb 2020CommentaryGazprom, Is It Time to Hit the Reset Button?Diversification away from Russian gas has been a major theme, not necessarily faithfully implemented, of European energy security policy over the…Apr 2009PressEPRINC Senior Research Analyst Batt Odgerel Quoted in Bloomberg’s Kari Soo Lindberg and Stephen Stapczynski’s Article “Xi Aligns With Putin Against US, But Hesitates on Gas Deal.”While that pipeline could supply China with a cheaper alternative to liquefied natural gas, Xi’s government remains focused on securing diversity of…Mar 2023AnnouncementEPRINC Joins Group of Thought Leaders In Writing to Japan’s Prime Minister About Natural Gas and Its Importance to Energy SecurityOn Tuesday, March 7, 2023, concurrent with CERAWeek in Houston, the leadership of several prominent energy trade associations and think-tanks…Mar 2023PressEPRINC Featured in CPM Group VideoIn a new video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OrJeb7JfHxY), CPM Group’s Managing Partner Jeffrey Christian discusses some issues regarding…Oct 2022
What is at stake in Ukraine gas-transit disputes?
ChartEuropean Natural Gas Constraints During the Winter of 2024-2025On January 1, 2025, Ukraine halted the flow of pipelined Russian natural gas to the EU as the 2019 five-year transit agreement expired with no…Chart 2025-01ChartRussian Pipelined Natural Gas to Europe: Is Ukraine’s Invasion a Threat?Ukraine's early-August 2024 incursion into Russia's Kursk Oblast, including the seizure of Gazprom's Sudzha compressor station, coincided with a…Chart 2024-32ChartRussian Pipeline Crude Oil Exports to Central Europe: Who is Complying with the Sanctions?Despite the EU's December 2022 ban on Russian crude oil imports, Slovakia, Hungary, and Czechia continue to receive pipeline volumes at pre-sanction…Chart 2024-10ChartAre GazProm’s Natural Gas Volumes Increasing Through Ukraine and Slovakia as Some Claim?Contrary to recent claims of rising flows, GazProm's natural gas volumes transiting Ukraine and Slovakia—the largest-capacity European…Chart 2022-08CommentaryEPRINC Background Note: Outline of NaftoHaz/ GazProm Issues Ahead of 12/31/2019 Transit Agreement ExpirationEPRINC’s Max Pyziur has created a note describing the background information behind the NaftoHaz/GazProm issues, specifically ahead of the…Feb 2020CommentaryRussian Gas to Europe, Part Deux.The Russians want to be paid, the Ukrainians want some combination of higher transit fees and lower prices, and the Europeans just want assurances…Aug 2009AnnouncementDistinguished Fellow Ash Shastri Publishes Paper on “Novak Statement on Ukraine Gas Transit Agreement”On November 7, 2024, EPRINC Distinguished Fellow Ash Shastri penned this piece, entitled “Novak Statement on Ukraine Gas Transit…Nov 2024
How does Gazprom pricing affect European energy security?
ChartEuropean Industrial Electricity Prices as a Measure of Energy AffordabilityEuropean industrial electricity prices held stable from 2007 through 2021 before spiking sharply in 2022 amid Russia's escalation of its war against…Chart 2023-34ChartEU’s Industrial Competitiveness Hinges on Natural GasNatural gas plays a central role in the EU's industrial sector, both as a direct energy input and indirectly across manufacturing processes. The…Chart 2022-44ChartNatural Gas Prices are Signaling Tight Energy Markets Ahead of WinterRegional natural gas benchmarks have risen considerably in 2021, signaling concern about tight energy markets ahead of the winter heating season.Chart 27
What role can US LNG and the Three Seas Initiative play?
ReportFYI In Brief – The Three Seas Initiative: An Introduction and Energy Security AssessmentThe economic success and political independence of Europe has long been a central point of U.S. foreign policy. These goals have been remarkably…Sep 2023ChartNatural Gas Exports Surpass Soybeans in Importance for Reducing U.S. Trade DeficitBeginning in 2021, the net value of U.S. natural gas exports reached $30 billion, exceeding soybean exports by $3 billion, and has since ranged…Chart 2026-18EventMax Pyziur and Matthew Sawoski present on EPRINC’s research on the Three Seas Initiative Energy Security ChallengesOn November 13, 2025, EPRINC Research Director Max Pyziur and researcher Matthew Sawoski presented “The Three Seas Initiative Paradigm:…Nov 2025Chart3SI Dependence on Russian Natural Gas is being mitigated by U.S. LNGThough several Three Seas Initiative countries—Bulgaria most notably—still import about 1.5 BCF/d of natural gas from Russia, growing U.S. LNG…Chart 2025-42ChartDisplacing European Energy Imports from Russia with U.S. Exports – The Case of Petroleum ProductsThe United States exports roughly 3.1 million barrels per day of petroleum products, of which about 550,000 barrels per day flow to Europe—a share…Chart 2025-37ChartDisplacing European Energy Imports from Russia with U.S. Exports – The Case of Crude OilSince the U.S. crude oil export ban was lifted in December 2015, U.S. crude exports have grown to over 4 MB/d, of which Europe imports roughly 1.4…Chart 2025-36ChartU.S. LNG Exports and European Natural Gas Imports — Note the ComplementaritySince 2019, U.S. LNG exports have surged from 4.5 BCF/d to 11.7 BCF/d, and the share flowing to Europe has climbed from 40% to 81%, filling the gap…Chart 2025-35ChartEuropean Receipts of U.S. LNG Exports by Destination – RevisitedAs Russia curtailed pipeline gas to Europe—cutting flows from a 2019 peak of 15 BCF/d to under 1 BCF/d by the summer of 2022—Europe ramped up…Chart 2023-42ChartU.S. LNG Exports: Recent TrendsWith the winter 2021–2022 shortfall in natural gas supplies from Russia, Europe accelerated purchases of U.S. LNG at a rate of 8 BCF/d in the first…Chart 2022-21ChartHigh-Level Analysis of the Contribution of US Shale Gas to European Gas Prices and SavingsEPRINC estimates that the contribution of US shale gas to European gas prices has resulted in a total savings for European natural gas consumers of…Chart 31AnnouncementLNG Allies, EPRINC, AXPC, and the EEIA offer five suggestions that the Biden Administration can utilize to bolster U.S. and European Energy Security in the near termToday on February 25, 2022, LNG Allies was joined by the Energy Policy Research Foundation, American Exploration and Production Council, and the…Feb 2022
Further research
ChartNatural Gas Inventories in the Northern Latitudes: A Mid-Year ReviewRecent harsh winters across the northern latitudes have elevated reliance on natural gas for seasonal power and heating in both the U.S. and Europe.…Chart 2026-23ChartEuropean Natural Gas Inventories A Late 2025-2026 Winter AssessmentEuropean gas storage levels heading into the disruption, critical given the 20% drop in global LNG supply.Chart 2026-07ChartEuropean and U.S. Natural Gas Storage at the End of Winter 2024-2025A colder winter in 2024-2025, particularly during February, drove combined U.S. and EU natural gas storage drawdowns to 4.3 trillion cubic feet, up…Chart 2025-09ChartThe Mid-2024 View: EU and Ukrainian Natural Gas StorageIn mid-2024, the EU was carrying natural gas inventories well above the trend of previous years, while Ukraine's inventories ran well below trend,…Chart 2024-33ChartRevisiting European Pre-Winter Natural Gas Storage Builds: 2022 vs 2023Entering the winter of 2023, EU natural gas storage stood at 3.785 trillion cubic feet — 224 billion cubic feet (6.3%) above the prior year — but a…Chart 2023-48ChartEuropean Natural Gas Imports and Storage Ahead of Winter 2023-2024As of October 31, 2023, EU natural gas storage stood near 4 trillion cubic feet, roughly 12% above the five-year trend, reflecting an aggressive…Chart 2023-43ChartEU (plus Norway and the U.K.) National Fiscal Policy Responses to the Energy Crisis: September 2021 to January 2023European governments committed an estimated €758 billion ($833 billion) between September 2021 and January 2023 to shield consumers from surging…Chart 2023-27ChartWestern European Near-Term Natural Gas RequirementsWestern European natural gas consumption typically peaks near 55 BCF/d in January, but mild winter weather and efficiency measures held the January…Chart 2023-17ChartNatural Gas Storage Mid-Winter 2022-2023 in the Northern LatitudesCoordinated emergency measures by European leaders, combined with mild winter weather, have muted natural gas demand and contributed to ample…Chart 2023-05ChartUnited Kingdom’s Electricity Generation Mix: Some ConsiderationsExamination of hourly electricity generation in the United Kingdom during August 2022 indicates that, despite ongoing efforts to expand wind…Chart 2022-37ChartGermany’s Energiewende: Some ConsiderationsDuring late summer in Germany, solar and coal generation together account for up to 70% of total electricity generation at certain times.Chart 2022-35ChartNatural Gas Storage Ahead of Winter in the Northern LatitudesNatural gas storage operators across the northern latitudes have moved aggressively to refill inventories ahead of the 2022-2023 winter, but at…Chart 2022-29EventGGC/EPRINC Webinar “Power Disruptions in Texas and California: Energy Price Shocks in Europe”EPRINC has cohosted a webinar with the Global Gas Centre (GGC). The workshop was held on February 2, 2022 at 9:00 to 11:30 AM (Washington time) /…Feb 2022ChartWinter of 2021-2022: Natural Gas Inventories in the Northern Latitudes – Mid-Season UpdateU.S. natural gas inventories remain in line with the 5-year trend for this point in the winter season, while European inventories stand at critical…Chart 2022-05ChartNatural Gas Inventories Ahead of Winter in the Northern Latitudes 2021-2022As winter approaches in the Northern Hemisphere, U.S. natural gas inventories have built at trend, while European inventories have fallen…Chart 36