EPRINC briefing
Russia-Ukraine Energy Disruption
25 publications
Briefing summary
The war has severed Russian energy flows to Europe: pipeline gas fell from a 2019 peak of 15 BCF/d to under 1 BCF/d, Ukraine ended Russian transit on January 1, 2025, and sanctions plus Ukrainian refinery strikes have reshaped Russian crude and product exports.
How have attacks on Russian oil facilities affected supply?
ChartUkrainian Strikes on Russian Refineries and Global and U.S. Product MarketsSince January 2024, Ukrainian drone strikes have damaged 14 Russian refineries and 9 terminals, impairing an estimated 1.3 mbd of refining capacity…Chart 2024-13PressMax Pyziur Interviewed by UkrInform on Attacks on Russian Oil FacilitiesEPRINC’s Max Pyziur was interviewed by UkrInform on the subject of attacks on Russian oil facilities. Readers can find the full interview at…May 2026
What is the market impact of bans on Russian oil imports?
ChartImpact of Recent U.S. and EU Sanctions on the Price of Russian Urals Crude OilFollowing new U.S. and EU sanctions targeting Russia's largest oil producers, the price of Russia's Urals crude benchmark fell from $49 to $41 per…Chart 2025-44ChartDisplacing European Energy Imports from Russia with U.S. Exports – The Case of Crude OilSince the U.S. crude oil export ban was lifted in December 2015, U.S. crude exports have grown to over 4 MB/d, of which Europe imports roughly 1.4…Chart 2025-36ChartU.S. Crude Oil & Product Imports from Russia and Venezuela under Shifting Sanctions RegimesBroader sanctions context: how U.S. import patterns shift under geopolitical pressure.Chart 2024-15ChartRussian Pipeline Crude Oil Exports to Central Europe: Who is Complying with the Sanctions?Despite the EU's December 2022 ban on Russian crude oil imports, Slovakia, Hungary, and Czechia continue to receive pipeline volumes at pre-sanction…Chart 2024-10ChartEU Crude Oil Trade: Shifts due to Russia’s WarEU crude oil imports have held relatively steady over the past five years, but Russia's war has reshaped their sources: key EU importers cut Russian…Chart 2023-07ChartRussian Seaborne Crude Oil Exports and the Price Cap MechanismAs the G7 price cap on Russian seaborne crude took effect at $60/bbl on December 5, 2022, this chart examines the mechanism's design and the tanker…Chart 2022-46EventLarry Goldstein Speaks at JINSA Policy Webinar, “The Cartel Strikes Back: OPEC’s Production Cut”Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) have recently made the decision with other oil producers (OPEC+) to slash…Oct 2022PressMax Pyziur Quoted on Russian Oil Import BanEPRINC’s Max Pyziur was quoted on the subject of the Russian oil import ban. Read the full piece at miamiherald.com.Mar 2022
What are the security implications for European buyers?
CommentaryEPRINC Background Note: Outline of NaftoHaz/ GazProm Issues Ahead of 12/31/2019 Transit Agreement ExpirationEPRINC’s Max Pyziur has created a note describing the background information behind the NaftoHaz/GazProm issues, specifically ahead of the…Feb 2020CommentaryRussian Gas to Europe, Part Deux.The Russians want to be paid, the Ukrainians want some combination of higher transit fees and lower prices, and the Europeans just want assurances…Aug 2009CommentaryGazprom, Is It Time to Hit the Reset Button?Diversification away from Russian gas has been a major theme, not necessarily faithfully implemented, of European energy security policy over the…Apr 2009AnnouncementLNG Allies, EPRINC, AXPC, and the EEIA offer five suggestions that the Biden Administration can utilize to bolster U.S. and European Energy Security in the near termToday on February 25, 2022, LNG Allies was joined by the Energy Policy Research Foundation, American Exploration and Production Council, and the…Feb 2022
Further research
ChartNatural Gas Inventories in the Northern Latitudes: A Mid-Year ReviewRecent harsh winters across the northern latitudes have elevated reliance on natural gas for seasonal power and heating in both the U.S. and Europe.…Chart 2026-23ChartEuropean Natural Gas Inventories A Late 2025-2026 Winter AssessmentEuropean gas storage levels heading into the disruption, critical given the 20% drop in global LNG supply.Chart 2026-07ChartA Mid-2025 Review: Natural Gas in Europe and Ukraine – Three ViewsEuropean natural gas imports have shifted decisively from pipeline gas to LNG, with the United States supplying the bulk of that LNG since mid-2022.Chart 2025-24ChartEuropean Natural Gas Constraints During the Winter of 2024-2025On January 1, 2025, Ukraine halted the flow of pipelined Russian natural gas to the EU as the 2019 five-year transit agreement expired with no…Chart 2025-01ChartRussian Pipelined Natural Gas to Europe: Is Ukraine’s Invasion a Threat?Ukraine's early-August 2024 incursion into Russia's Kursk Oblast, including the seizure of Gazprom's Sudzha compressor station, coincided with a…Chart 2024-32ChartEuropean Receipts of U.S. LNG Exports by Destination – RevisitedAs Russia curtailed pipeline gas to Europe—cutting flows from a 2019 peak of 15 BCF/d to under 1 BCF/d by the summer of 2022—Europe ramped up…Chart 2023-42ChartOn the Anniversary of Russia’s EscalationOne year after Russia's escalation of its war against Ukraine, LNG became Europe's primary source of natural gas over the course of 2022, and…Chart 2023-09ChartEurope – Daily Natural Gas Receipts During 2022Russia's Europe-bound pipeline natural gas exports declined throughout 2022, falling from highs of 15 BCF/d during 2019 through a series of…Chart 2022-38ChartEurope – Recently Reported Monthly Natural Gas ReceiptsEuropean natural gas supply patterns reflect two trends that preceded Russia's February 2022 escalation of military aggression against Ukraine: a…Chart 2022-26ChartAre GazProm’s Natural Gas Volumes Increasing Through Ukraine and Slovakia as Some Claim?Contrary to recent claims of rising flows, GazProm's natural gas volumes transiting Ukraine and Slovakia—the largest-capacity European…Chart 2022-08AnnouncementDistinguished Fellow Ash Shastri Publishes Paper on “Novak Statement on Ukraine Gas Transit Agreement”On November 7, 2024, EPRINC Distinguished Fellow Ash Shastri penned this piece, entitled “Novak Statement on Ukraine Gas Transit…Nov 2024