EPRINC briefing
Fuel Economy and Vehicle Standards
34 publications
Briefing summary
This briefing examines U.S. vehicle emissions and fuel-economy standards (CAFE requirements, California's EV mandate, and regulatory credits) alongside evidence that new U.S. light- and medium-duty vehicles account for a modest, declining share of global CO2 emissions.
What is the right level for CAFE/GHG standards?
ReportCAFE, Gasoline Prices and the Law of Diminishing Returns: A New Agenda for the Midterm EvaluationEPRINC has just published CAFE, Gasoline Prices and the Law of Diminishing Returns: A New Agenda for the Midterm Evaluation. The paper was authored…Mar 2016ReportCash for Guzzlers The program resembles an initiative undertaken by the Unocal Corporation in the early 1990s to remove older autos from the market in an effort to…May 2009CommentaryEnergy Policy Research Commentary on EPA Proposed Rule: “Reconsideration of 2009 Endangerment Finding and Greenhouse Gas Vehicle Standards”The Energy Policy Research Foundation (EPRINC) appreciates the opportunity to submit comments on the proposed rule entitled “Reconsideration…Sep 2025ChartCumulative CO2 from New U.S. Medium-Duty Vehicles as a Share of Global Energy-Related Emissions (2026-2045) September 11, 2025Cumulative CO2 emissions from new U.S. medium-duty vehicles between 2026 and 2045 represent only a small fraction of projected global energy-related…Chart 2025-33ChartGlobal Impact of CO2 Emissions from New U.S. Light-Duty Vehicles September 3, 2025New light-duty vehicles sold in the United States account for a modest and declining share of global CO2 emissions, indicating that further…Chart 2025-32ChartEmissions of Current Popular Vehicles and Required 2032 Compliance LevelsIn March 2024, the EPA raised Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards to require light-duty vehicle emissions to fall to half of current…Chart 2024-27ChartEV Electricity Requirements and EPA’s Challenging RulesTwo EPA rules proposed in 2023 work at cross-purposes: one would sharply raise electric vehicle production while the other would reduce dispatchable…Chart 2023-26EventEPRINC and IER Co-Host Virtual Workshop on “Understanding the Safer Affordable Fuel-Efficient (SAFE) Rule for Automobiles”On July 27, 2020, the Energy Policy Research Foundation and the Institute for Energy Research jointly hosted a virtual workshop on the recently…Jul 2020CommentaryTrump Administration Decides to Revisit Corporate Average Fuel Economy StandardsThe Trump Administration recently ordered a full review of the corporate average fuel efficiency (CAFE) standards for automobiles sold in the U.S.…Apr 2017CommentaryAuto Fuel Economy Standards: How Should We Proceed?In 2012 the federal government required automakers to meet more stringent standards for both fuel economy and reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG)…Aug 2016PressOGJ – CAFE Midterm Evaluation Should Consider Oil Market ChangesEPRINC’s work on the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards continues to get attention. The Oil & Gas Journal published an abridged…Apr 2016
How does the octane debate affect future fuels?
ReportEPRINC Releases Report on the Role of Octane in U.S. Transportation FuelsOver the course of the last forty years, automobile manufacturers have had to comply with a variety of increasingly stringent Federal and State…Feb 2019ChartOctane vs Compression RatioFrom the 1930s through the mid-1970s, average engine compression ratios of gasoline-powered vehicles climbed from about 4-to-1 to roughly 10.5-to-1,…Chart 2024-24CommentaryCan Octane Play a Cost-Effective Role in Lifting Automobile Fuel Efficiency Standards?Automobile manufacturers have been facing increasing regulatory requirements to meet to fuel efficiency standards under U.S. and state laws since…Aug 2016
Do EV mandates make economic sense?
ReportFYI In Brief: The Energy Economics of EVs And ICEVsThe Biden Administration’s recent tightening of the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standards will force car manufacturers to rapidly…Jul 2024ChartFuel Cost per Mile in CaliforniaIn California, the fuel cost per mile for electric vehicles remains lower than that of comparable gasoline-powered vehicles, though the magnitude of…Chart 2025-18ChartA Policy Destined to Fail? California’s EV MandateCalifornia's mandate requiring that a rising share of new vehicle sales be zero-emission vehicles faces significant implementation challenges,…Chart 2025-17ChartGlobal Lithium Requirements of Select U.S. BEV ManufacturersAmong the three U.S. BEV-only manufacturers, Tesla dominates lithium demand, requiring roughly 113,600 metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent…Chart 2025-15ChartPotential for Charging Station Deficiency Under EPA’s Electric Vehicle (EV) Expansion ProgramWhile the current U.S. network of fast charging stations is adequate for today's small EV fleet, EPRINC's analysis finds that under the EPA's…Chart 2024-26ChartComparing CO2 Emissions per 100 Miles Based on Energy Mix: Gasoline-Powered vs Battery Electric VehiclesBased on the 2019 U.S. electricity mix, a battery-electric sedan generates roughly 7,600 grams of CO2 to travel 100 miles, compared with about…Chart 2023-20ChartForegone Tax Revenues from U.S. Federal Plug-in Electric Vehicle Tax CreditsThrough 2024, the U.S. Congressional Joint Committee on Taxation projects foregone tax revenues from federal plug-in electric vehicle tax credits of…Chart 40ChartLithium and U.S. Motor Vehicle ConcernsThe growing adoption of electric vehicles in the United States raises questions regarding lithium supply, an essential input for battery production.Chart 35ChartCan the California Electricity Grid Immediately Switch to an All EV Fleet?California's current electricity grid capacity would be insufficient to immediately support a full transition to an all-electric vehicle fleet…Chart 15ChartCan the U.S. Electricity Grid Immediately Switch to an All EV Fleet?A complete transition of the U.S. vehicle fleet to electric power would require the grid to generate an additional 1.4 trillion kilowatt-hours, or…Chart 9PressBatt Odgerel Quoted in JusttheNews Article on California’s EV MandateIn an interview with Kevin Killough for JusttheNews, Energy Policy Research’s Director of Energy Transition Research Batt Odgerel discussed…May 2025
How do regulatory credits like Tesla's shape the market?
ChartTesla Automotive Credits And Gross ProfitAutomotive regulatory credits—sold to manufacturers that fall short of government EV standards—have contributed roughly 10 to 30 percent of Tesla's…Chart 2024-46ChartImplied Tesla Battery Production CostsEstimates of Tesla's implied battery production costs indicate the cost trajectory associated with the company's electric vehicle manufacturing.Chart 2022-22PressEnergy Policy Research Foundation’s Batt Odgerel Quoted in Reuters on Tesla Regulatory CreditBatt Odgerel of the Energy Policy Research Foundation was quoted in Reuters on the subject of Tesla’s regulatory credits. Readers can find the…Jul 2025
Further research
ChartU.S. Gasoline Sales, Vehicle Miles Traveled, and Motor Vehicle Fuel Efficiency RevisitedU.S. gasoline consumption grew only 0.25% annually between 2000 and 2022, yet vehicle miles traveled rose nearly 1% per year over the same period—an…Chart 2025-04ChartErrata: Additional DC Fast Charging Capacity Required Acceptability of EV Wait TimesAn erratum revising two earlier charts finds that fewer DC fast chargers will be needed by 2050 than initially projected, but at substantially…Chart 2024-29ChartAcceptability of EV Wait Times at DC Fast Charging LocationsEven in scenarios where average EV wait times at DC fast charging stations are held under an hour, infrequent high-impact events would leave a…Chart 2024-28ChartU.S. Motor Vehicle Pollution Reduction Progress since 1970Criteria pollutant emissions from new automobiles have fallen dramatically since 1970. A 1968 Ford Mustang emitted between roughly 1,500 pounds and…Chart 2024-23ChartVehicle DepreciationVehicle depreciation rates vary significantly across powertrain types, with implications for total cost of ownership and consumer purchasing…Chart 2024-18ChartFast Charging Electric Vehicle Stations Some ConsiderationsEV charging infrastructure, measured by the number of stations and fast chargers, remains concentrated in a limited set of states, including…Chart 32