EPRINC briefing
North American Shale and Tight Oil
61 publications
Briefing summary
Shale and tight oil have made the United States the world's largest oil and gas producer, with per-well productivity rising sharply even as rig counts and operational leases decline, though producer breakeven WTI costs have climbed from roughly $29 to $39/bbl since 2020.
How much can Bakken and Permian production grow?
ReportLighting Up the PrairieEPRINC has undertaken an assessment of recent trends in the flaring of natural gas in North Dakota and concluded the following: 1) Total…Aug 2012ReportTight Oil – Possibilities, Challenges, and PolicyEPRINC President Lucian Pugliaresi gave a presentation entitled “Tight Oil – Possibilities, Challenges, and Policy – Economic, Political and…Apr 2012ReportThe Bakken Boom: An Introduction to North Dakota’s Shale OilDownload PDF version of report for citations The Bakken Boom – JAPANESE VERSION North Dakota has been an oil producing state for 60 years,…Aug 2011ChartU.S. Crude Oil Production by States/Region: Legacy Producers vs Shale/Offshore – the 40 Year ViewU.S. crude oil production over the past forty years has shifted markedly in both scale and geography, as legacy output from Alaska and California…Chart 2023-16ChartCrude Oil Production: OPEC Members vs. Key U.S. Producing StatesU.S. crude oil production has surged to 11.9 million barrels per day in 2022 from 5 million in 2008, and when ranked against OPEC members, Texas…Chart 2023-12ChartResiliency of Crude Oil Production in the Permian BasinCrude oil production in the Permian Basin has demonstrated notable resiliency, sustaining output levels across recent market conditions.Chart 2022-42ChartU.S. Crude Oil Production New EIA Data Reveals ShortfallsSince the COVID-related supply decline, U.S. crude oil production has recovered by 1.6 million barrels per day. However, despite significant…Chart 2022-28ChartIncremental Growth in Natural Gas Production Since 2010From the rise of the Shale Revolution in 2010 until the onset of COVID-19 in 2020, the United States accounted for over 45% of the incremental…Chart 30ChartIncremental Growth in Global Oil Production Since 2010From the rise of the Shale Revolution in 2010 until the onset of COVID-19 in 2020, the United States accounted for 82% of the incremental growth in…Chart 19Commentary“With Global Oil Demand on the Rebound, What About Supply?” By Rafael SandreaEPRINC’s Rafael Sandrea has published another paper, this one entitled “With Global Oil Demand on the Rebound, What About Supply?”…Apr 2021CommentaryThe Permian Basin Produces Gas, TooThis report by EPRINC Non-Resident Fellow Trisha Curtis is part of the Energy Policy Research Foundation’s multi-year research program evaluating…Aug 2018CommentaryUS Shale Gas: The Road AheadThe following report on US natural gas supply was undertaken by Ben Montalbano and Trisha Curtis and is part of EPRINC’s multi-year research…Aug 2016PressEIA: U.S. oil production to test all-time peaks in 2016The projections reflect “a remarkable achievement in technological innovation and long-term capital investment” in the oil and natural gas…Dec 2013
How do well productivity and completion design drive output?
ReportShale Well Productivity AssessmentThis 2016 publication predates EPRINC’s current website, and the original document is no longer available in the archive. For EPRINC’s…Nov 2016ChartDespite Decrease in Operational Leases, Crude Oil Production Efficiency Gains are Growing Exponentially in the US Lower 48Since 2015, operational oil leases on Federal lands in the Lower 48 have fallen 25%, yet the total daily crude production of wells still in…Chart 2025-30ChartMeasuring Productivity Improvements in U.S. Shale Oil and Gas ProductionAs fracking technology and data acquisition have advanced, the productivity of U.S. shale wells has risen dramatically—Appalachian natural gas wells…Chart 2025-11CommentaryAdvances in Well Completion Design Sustain Advances in Shale Oil ProductivityEPRINC Non-Resident Fellow Trisha Curtis and Trustee Ben Montalbano build on some of their previous work concerning US shale productivity in their…Dec 2017
How does shale respond to low-price environments?
ReportTrisha Curtis on U.S. Shale Oil Production in a Low-Price EnvironmentThe report was an important discussion item at the annual “Oil Day” OIES workshop in Oxford on November 17, 2015. The full report is…Nov 2015ChartU.S. Rig Counts and Crude Oil PricesU.S. crude oil rig counts in the primary producing basins have trended lower alongside a declining WTI benchmark since the start of 2025, as…Chart 2025-29ChartDallas Fed Survey: U.S. Crude Oil Production Costs Are Rising – RevisitedThe Dallas Fed's energy survey shows the average WTI price U.S. producers need to maintain operations has risen from just over $29/bbl in early 2020…Chart 2025-14ChartU.S. Crude Oil Production – Potential HeadwindsU.S. crude oil markets face flattening, range-bound prices and rising costs, conditions that are pulling down rig counts and slowing the pace of…Chart 2023-29ChartDallas Fed Survey: U.S. Crude Oil Production Costs Are RisingThe Dallas Federal Reserve's first quarter 2023 survey shows U.S. crude oil producers' costs have risen since 2020, with the average breakeven WTI…Chart 2023-19EventTrisha Curtis Presents at OxfordTrisha Curtis presented her paper on shale production in a low-price environment at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.Nov 2015EventEPRINC’s Trisha Curtis presented at an Energy Bar Association Conference in DC on U.S. crude oil production and low oil prices on May 6th, 2015On May 6th, 2015, EPRINC’s Trisha Curtis presented on U.S. crude oil production and low oil prices at an Energy Bar Association Conference in…May 2015EventTrisha Curtis’ Presentation at Hart Energy’s DUG Bakken ConferenceHer presentation explained the complexities of the Bakken and other tight oil production in a low oil price environment.Apr 2015CommentaryNatural Gas Industry Fakes the Moon LandingThe NYT’s reporter relied extensively on anecdotal evidence and commentary on developments in the natural gas industry from both industry and…Jul 2011PressDistinguished Fellow Michael Lynch in Forbes on Shale Oil PessimismEPRINC Distinguished Fellow Michael Lynch examines shale oil pessimism in Forbes. Read the full piece at Forbes.Sep 2025PressEPRINC’s Trisha Curtis Featured in World Oil MagazineTrisha Curtis on the recovery of US shale production: “When you think of a swing producer, you think of OPEC and you think of spare capacity…Apr 2015
What does the shale revolution mean for US supply security?
Report“Unconventional and Underestimated: U.S. Shale” by Trisha CurtisThe production of oil and gas from unconventional geologic formations (generally called shale oil and gas) has lifted the U.S. into the world’s…Jul 2023TestimonyComments Submitted to DOE Regarding NERA’s LNG Export StudyThe NERA conclusions are consistent with our own research on the economic benefits of a wide range of project opportunities now emerging as a direct…Jan 2013ChartExxon Mobil / Pioneer and Chevron / Hess Mergers in the Context of Global Liquid Fuels ProductionThe combined 2022 liquids output of Exxon Mobil, Pioneer, Chevron, and Hess totals 4.2 million barrels per day, or 4.2% of global liquid fuels…Chart 2023-47ChartU.S. Crude Oil Import Dependence and Potential VulnerabilityU.S. crude oil imports have swung widely over seven decades, from near self-sufficiency in the late 1940s to a 2008 peak exceeding 210% of domestic…Chart 2023-40ChartThe North American Hydrocarbon Production Platform: Fueling the Americas Generating TradeThe North American Petroleum Renaissance, marked by combined USMCA increases in crude oil and petroleum products production alongside relatively…Chart 2022-16ChartNet U.S. Petroleum Imports, 1990 to 2020Net U.S. petroleum imports have declined substantially since 2006, driven by increases in domestic oil and gas production from advanced extraction…Chart 1EventBarclays Bank and EPRINC Host Discussion on Fracking BanOn February 13, 2020 in NYC, Barclays Bank and EPRINC hosted a discussion on U.S. petroleum policy with the investment community and public sector…Mar 2020CommentaryThe Impact of a Fracking Ban on Shale Production and the Economy by Michael LynchOil and gas production from the U.S. petroleum resource base has experienced an unprecedented expansion in output which has now positioned the U.S.…Feb 2020CommentaryAmerican Fuels – Opportunities and Challenges for the U.S. Refining IndustryThe upstream production gains provide an opportunity for stable earnings for U.S. refiners and higher production of the entire range of petroleum…Jan 2012Op-EdWSJ Opinion: The Keystone DebacleOPINION November 16, 2011 The Keystone Debacle Was Obama’s decision to delay the Canadian oil pipeline shrewd politics? Maybe not. By LUCIAN…Nov 2011Op-EdWSJ Opinion: The Lessons of the Shale Gas RevolutionOpinion September 30, 2011 The Lessons of the Shale Gas Revolution North American oil production can double by 2035. By LUCIAN PUGLIARESI Where can…Oct 2011PressEPRINC trustee Ivan Sandrea comments on the challenges and opportunities of the US Shale RevolutionEPRINC trustee Ivan Sandrea examines the challenges and opportunities of the US Shale Revolution. Read the full piece at oxfordenergy.org.Mar 2014PressEPRINC’s Larry Goldstein and Trisha Curtis are Quoted in New York Times ArticleAbout 75 percent of Bakken oil production travels by rail and as much as 400,000 barrels a day heads to the East Coast, said Trisha Curtis, an…Mar 2014
Further research
TestimonyTestimony on EPA/RFS, recent presentations by EPRINC staffLou’s written testimony is available here (PDF). Trisha Curtis presented on May 30 before Hart Energy’s DUG Bakken and Niobrara conference in…Jun 2013ChartShale Production has Revived Argentina’s Oil and Natural Gas ProductionDevelopment of the Vaca Muerta formation has reversed Argentina's declining conventional output, with shale now supplying nearly 60% of the…Chart 2025-20ChartU.S. Natural Gas Production by Producing Region and State, and the Contribution of Oil & Gas Extraction to these States’ GDPDuring 2023, three U.S. regions comprising 11 states produced an average of 107 BCF/d, or 95% of total U.S. marketed natural gas of 113 BCF/d, and…Chart 2024-16ChartU.S. Liquid Fuel and Feedstock Rail Movements: Select ViewsAt the onset of the U.S. shale revolution in the late 2000s, limited pipeline capacity to move crude oil production—particularly from North…Chart 2023-01EventLucian Pugliaresi Presents at the London Campus of ESCPOn January 29, 2018 Lucian Pugliaresi gave a presentation at the Research Center for Energy Management at the London Campus of ESCP, Europe’s…Feb 2018EventEPRINC’s Lucian Pugliaresi Presents in FrankfurtIn December, EPRINC chaired the US Energy Stream’s “5th Frankfurt Gas Forum 2017” in the Schlosshotel Kronberg in Frankfurt, Germany. At the Forum,…Dec 2017EventTrisha Curtis, non resident fellow at EPRINC and co-counder of PetroNerds, presents at OPEC/IEA/IEF WorkshopTrisha Curtis, who headed EPRINC’s upstream effort for the last five years, left EPRINC in January 2016 to work full-time with her own company,…Apr 2016EventTrisha Curtis’ Presentation before the Wyoming Oil and Gas FairThe presentation, “The North American Oil Market: Wyoming in Context”, was made on September 18th before the Wyoming Oil and Gas Fair.…Oct 2014EventThe Uncensored Version of Trisha Curtis’ Presentation before the BNSF Crude by Rail SummitThe uncensored version of Trisha Curtis’ presentation before the BNSF Crude by Rail Summit.Jul 2014EventWilliston Basin Petroleum ConferenceTrisha Curtis presents “Crude Oil Movement and Market Dynamics” before the Williston Basin Petroleum Conference on May 20, 2014.May 2014EventEPRINC Presents at ESCP Europe Business SchoolTrisha Curtis presents “Challenges of the North American Petroleum Renaissance” at ESCP Europe Business School on January 31st, 2014.Feb 2014EventLou Pugliaresi Presents before the New York Energy ForumLou Pugliaresi presents on the North American Petroleum Renaissance before the New York Energy forum on February 24, 2014.Feb 2014EventChallenges and Opportunities of the North American Petroleum Renaissance – Chatham House and Imperial College LondonTrisha Curtis and Lou Pugliaresi presented before Chatham House and a Petroleum Engineering class at Imperial College London on November 21, 2013.Dec 2013CommentaryThe Shale Boom ‘Round the WorldA presentation by Ben Montalbano before the Clingendael Institute on November 5, 2013Nov 2013EventEPRINC Embassy Series: NGLs and Condensates of the Petroleum RenaissanceThe event agenda and presentations (pdf) can be accessed below: The Lesser Loved Liquids: NGLs and Condensates of the Petroleum Renaissance –…Oct 2013EventEmbassy Event Presentations: North American Petroleum Infrastructure, at the Norwegian Ambassador’s ResidenceThe event agenda and presentations (pdf) can be accessed below: Agenda: Infrastructure Challenges and the North American Petroleum Renaissance – May…Jun 2013EventHow the Game Has Changed – Infrastructure and the North American Petroleum RenaissanceThat presentation can be downloaded (PDF) by clicking the image below. Feb 2013CommentaryThe Value of the Canadian Oil Sands (….to the United States)The pipeline would permit the shipment of increased volumes of heavy crudes to U.S. Gulf Coast refiners from expanded oil sands production sourced…Nov 2010CommentaryThe Shale Gas RevolutionOn February 2, 2010 EPRINC made a presentation in Tokyo before the Japanese petroleum community hosted by the Japan Oil, Gas, and Metals Corporation…Feb 2010