EPRINC briefing
OPEC and Global Oil Markets
27 publications
Briefing summary
This briefing tracks OPEC and OPEC+ production management, sanctions on Iranian and Russian crude, and Middle East conflict risk to tanker traffic, alongside U.S. production dynamics: the interacting forces that set global crude prices and benchmark discounts.
How do OPEC+ production cuts affect crude prices?
ChartMideast Military Aggression and OPEC+ Crude Production Management and Their Impact on Red Sea and Hormuz Straits Tanker Traffic and Crude Oil Prices2024 chokepoint disruption patterns as historical context for the current closure.Chart 2024-40ChartCrude Oil Production: OPEC Members vs. Key U.S. Producing StatesU.S. crude oil production has surged to 11.9 million barrels per day in 2022 from 5 million in 2008, and when ranked against OPEC members, Texas…Chart 2023-12EventLarry Goldstein Speaks at JINSA Policy Webinar, “The Cartel Strikes Back: OPEC’s Production Cut”Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) have recently made the decision with other oil producers (OPEC+) to slash…Oct 2022PressEPRINC’s President Emeritus and Trustee Larry Goldstein Quoted in October 4th 2022 NY TimesOPEC is scheduled to meet October 5th 2022 in Vienna Austria to consider strategic guidance to its members and allies on global crude oil…Oct 2022
What drives oil price collapses and recoveries?
ChartLong-Term Underinvestment in Upstream Oil & Gas Production Foreshadows High Prices as Global Demand ReturnsAnnual financial reports from several major oil and gas companies indicate that upstream capital expenditures have remained low despite rising oil…Chart 33EventEPRINC’s First Webinar, “Crisis in the Oil Market: Remembrances of the Past, Policy Responses for the Future”EPRINC has produced its first webinar, entitled “Crisis in the Oil Market: Remembrances of the Past, Policy Responses for the Future.”…May 2020Op-EdEPRINC’s Lucian Pugliaresi and Larry Goldstein Publish a Commentary on Policy Responses to the Current Crisis in the World Oil Market in Real Clear EnergyEPRINC’s Lucian Pugliaresi and Larry Goldstein have published a commentary examining policy responses to the current crisis in the world oil market.…Apr 2020CommentaryRight Music, Wrong KeyIn economics, there are plenty of dilemmas and challenging questions. As analysts, we are fortunate that oil markets present most of them.…Apr 2016EventEPRINC’s Trisha Curtis presented at an Energy Bar Association Conference in DC on U.S. crude oil production and low oil prices on May 6th, 2015On May 6th, 2015, EPRINC’s Trisha Curtis presented on U.S. crude oil production and low oil prices at an Energy Bar Association Conference in…May 2015CommentaryIraq – First LookIn December 2009, the government of Iraq held a competitive auction for the rights to develop 60 billion barrels (bbls) of proven crude oil reserves…Mar 2010PressMax Pyziur, EPRINC’s Research Director, discusses lower oil prices resulting from trade, tariff, and economic headwinds with CBC News’s Paula Duhatschek.EPRINC’s Research Director Max Pyziur discusses lower oil prices resulting from trade, tariff, and economic headwinds with CBC News’s…May 2025PressEPRINC’s Trisha Curtis Featured in World Oil MagazineTrisha Curtis on the recovery of US shale production: “When you think of a swing producer, you think of OPEC and you think of spare capacity…Apr 2015AnnouncementEPRINC and Macroeconomic Advisers Initiate Assessment of US Oil Price DeclineSince mid-summer, spot and forward oil prices have plunged. Lower energy costs will boost near-term U.S. GDP growth by raising real income, wealth,…Jan 2015PressWSJ: The Crude-Oil Market’s Future TenseThe article is in a way a brief update of that report, arguing that crude oil’s 2009 rally can be in part attributed to investor expectations of a…Jun 2009
How do Saudi supply decisions shape the market?
CommentaryLarry Goldstein: The Heart Wants What the Heart WantsThe November meeting was too early and the price level was too high to have expected the Saudis to agree to a reduction in supply. However, the…Dec 2014PressEPRINC’s Max Pyziur Quoted in Fox Business on the UAE’s Departure from OPECEPRINC’s Max Pyziur was quoted in Fox Business on the UAE’s departure from OPEC. Read the full article at Fox Business.May 2026AnnouncementEPRINC Re-Release of NOPEC Article by Lucian PugliaresiAs the Senate Judiciary Committee is taking up a vote on NOPEC, EPRINC is re-releasing this 2019 article published in Real Clear Energy on NOPEC…May 2022
How do macro factors like Fed policy interact with oil markets?
ChartU.S. Rig Counts and Crude Oil PricesU.S. crude oil rig counts in the primary producing basins have trended lower alongside a declining WTI benchmark since the start of 2025, as…Chart 2025-29ChartImpacts of the U.S. 2024 Presidential Election on Petroleum and Natural Gas EquitiesSince the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, crude oil and natural gas prices have diverged, with natural gas equities rising on expectations that the…Chart 2025-03CommentaryJeff Kissel on A Low-Price Environment and Fed Lift-OffJeff Kissel, who recently joined EPRINC as a Distinguished Fellow, provides a brief commentary on why low oil prices may reduce the economic pain…Nov 2015
Further research
EventEnergy Policy Research President Lucian Pugliaresi and Trustee Ivan Sandrea Speak at May 18th CEBRI Webinar on Oil Price ShockOn May 18th, 2026, Energy Policy Research President Lucian Pugliaresi and Trustee Ivan Sandrea contributed spoken remarks at a CEBRI (Brazilian…May 2026ChartIranian Petroleum Exports Under Shifting U.S. Sanctions RegimesUpdated sanctions impact analysis published one week before the crisis.Chart 2026-09ChartImpact of Recent U.S. and EU Sanctions on the Price of Russian Urals Crude OilFollowing new U.S. and EU sanctions targeting Russia's largest oil producers, the price of Russia's Urals crude benchmark fell from $49 to $41 per…Chart 2025-44ChartMideast Military Aggression, Hormuz Strait Tanker Traffic, and Crude Oil PricesJune 2025 analysis of earlier Hormuz tensions and tanker traffic patterns.Chart 2025-25ChartIranian Petroleum Exports Under Shifting U.S. Sanctions RegimesOriginal Dec 2024 analysis of sanctions enforcement and Iranian export volumes.Chart 2024-48EventTrisha Curtis, non resident fellow at EPRINC and co-counder of PetroNerds, presents at OPEC/IEA/IEF WorkshopTrisha Curtis, who headed EPRINC’s upstream effort for the last five years, left EPRINC in January 2016 to work full-time with her own company,…Apr 2016PressMax Pyziur cited in The Observer Thomas Graham’s article “US action in Venezuela fails to budge oil markets”EPRINC’s Max Pyziur is cited in Thomas Graham’s article “US action in Venezuela fails to budge oil markets,” published in…Jan 2026