EPRINC briefing
Net Zero and the Energy Transition
44 publications
Briefing summary
This briefing examines the feasibility and pace of net-zero pathways, comparing projected U.S. emissions contributions from new gas-fired plants and vehicles against global totals, and assessing grid reliability, electrification costs, and hydrocarbons' persistent role in global power generation.
Is a net-zero world technically and economically feasible?
Op-EdEPRINC’s Lucian Pugliaresi and Batt Odgerel Contribute an Article in the National Interest’s Debate Series, “Is a Net Zero World Possible?”EPRINC’s Lucian Pugliaresi and Batt Odgerel contribute an article to The National Interest’s debate series, “Is a Net Zero World…Sep 2025ChartHydrocarbon Share Of Global Electricity GenerationHydrocarbons continue to account for a substantial share of global electricity generation, underscoring their persistent role in meeting worldwide…Chart 2024-36ChartUnderstanding the Scale ChallengeThe IEA's electricity generation outlooks for 2050 illustrate the scale of expansion required across generation sources, underscoring the magnitude…Chart 2024-19ChartNet Additional Coal Generation Capacity Since the Paris AgreementSince the 2015 Paris Agreement, coal-fired generation capacity has fallen by 164.4 GW in developed countries while rising by a net 360 GW across…Chart 2023-44ChartGlobal CO₂ Emissions: What If Only OECD Goes Net Zero by 2050? Batt Odgerel May 24, 2023 Washington, DCEven if all OECD countries were to achieve net zero CO₂ emissions by 2050, global emissions would continue to be driven by non-OECD economies,…Chart 2023-21ChartRenewable Share In USPrimary Energy DemandDespite decades of ambitious scenarios and government targets for renewable energy in the United States, renewables continue to account for a modest…Chart 2023-11ChartCO2 Per Dollar Of GDPDespite mounting pressure to cut emissions quickly, the United States and its OECD peers remain among the least emission-intensive economies in the…Chart 2023-10ChartUK Electricity Capacity vs Electricity Generation Be Wary of the HeadwindsDespite the United Kingdom installing wind generation capacity that exceeds that of nuclear and coal, wind power capacity utilization remains low…Chart 14Chart“ India is getting it done …” (from Environment Envoy John Kerry’s remarks). But it is doing it predominantly with Oil and Gas!While India's energy progress has been acknowledged by policymakers, the country's growth continues to be met predominantly through oil and gas.Chart 7
How credible are the IEA Net Zero scenario assumptions?
Report“A Critical Assessment of the IEA’s Net Zero Scenario, ESG, and the Cessation of Investment in New Oil and Gas Fields”We are excited to announce the launch of our report, “A Critical Assessment of the IEA’s Net Zero Scenario, ESG, and the Cessation of Investment in…Jun 2023ChartCarbon Dioxide Contribution of New U.S. Gas-Fired Baseload Plants to GlobalAnalysis of projected emissions indicates that carbon dioxide from new U.S. gas-fired baseload plants would represent a limited share of global…Chart 2025-34ChartCumulative CO2 from New U.S. Medium-Duty Vehicles as a Share of Global Energy-Related Emissions (2026-2045) September 11, 2025Cumulative CO2 emissions from new U.S. medium-duty vehicles between 2026 and 2045 represent only a small fraction of projected global energy-related…Chart 2025-33ChartLarge Uncertainties Remain on Long-term Petroleum DemandLong-term projections of global petroleum demand continue to diverge significantly across forecasts, reflecting substantial uncertainty about the…Chart 2024-42ChartU.S. CO2 Emissions from Hydrocarbon Fuel ConsumptionU.S. CO2 emissions from hydrocarbon fuel consumption have fallen more than 20% from their mid-2000s peak, with EIA projecting 4.75 billion metric…Chart 2023-46Commentary“Shifting Oil Industry Structure and Energy Security Under Investment Phase-Outs” by Michael LynchThe International Energy Agency (IEA), a collection of member countries formed in the 1970s to secure the energy security of the advanced Western…Nov 2021AnnouncementNet Zero Gets a Second LookDuring the last two weeks of August 2023, Energy Policy Research’s president, Lucian Pugliaresi, was invited to Italy and the United Kingdom to…Sep 2023PressEPRINC’s Lucian Pugliaresi on Heard at Heritage’s The Power Hour: Drop Net Zero and Get Yourself a Hero!On June 27, 2023, EPRINC President Lucian Pugliaresi was featured on the Heritage Foundation's The Power Hour on an episode entitled: "Drop Net Zero…Jul 2023
What are the costs and tradeoffs of an accelerated transition?
TestimonyEPRINC President Lucian Pugliaresi Testifies at Senate Budget Committee Hearing “Left Holding the Bag: The Cost of Oil Dependence in a Low Carbon World”The U.S. Senate Budget Committee has jurisdiction over the Congressional Budget Office. In that position, its roles are to draft the U.S. Congress’…Apr 2023ReportThe Future of the U.S. Refining Industry Under Waxman-MarkeyA PDF version of the executive summary can be downloaded here and is posted on our publication page. The full report will be posted on our website…Nov 2009Commentary“An Imminent Reversal in German Energy Policy?” by Distinguished Fellow Ash ShastriEnergy Policy Research Foundation Distinguished Fellow and Enerstrat Consulting Founder Ash Shastri has penned a timely piece on shifts in price and…Dec 2024ChartThe German Duck Curve Evolution of Germany’s Mid-Summer Electricity Generation Resource Mix Comparing 2017 and 2024Germany's mid-summer electricity mix now displays a pronounced "Duck Curve," as midday utility-scale solar output displaces other generation while…Chart 2024-47ChartEPA’s Power Plant Rule, Declining U.S. Electricity Generating Capacity, and Growing Power Demand Have Capacity Requirements Been Underestimated in the Face…EPA's newly finalized power plant rule would retire a substantial share of dispatchable coal and natural gas capacity even as demand pressures from…Chart 2024-17ChartMassachusetts: Electrification Challenges in Response to Recent Legislation and RulesA Massachusetts Department of Public Utilities order effectively mandating the decommissioning of the natural gas system and a shift to electric…Chart 2024-11ChartThe Spanish Duck Curve: Evolution of Spain’s August Electricity Generation Resource Mix — 2019-2023As utility-scale solar has expanded in Spain, midday solar output increasingly displaces other generation, producing a "Duck Curve" that requires…Chart 2023-35EventEPRINC’s Max Pyziur Participates in Westchester County Association (WCA) Sustainable Business ConferenceOn Thursday July 14, 2022, the Westchester County Association (WCA) held their first Sustainable Business Conference. Focusing on the implementation…Mar 2023ChartGermany’s Energiewende: Some ConsiderationsDuring late summer in Germany, solar and coal generation together account for up to 70% of total electricity generation at certain times.Chart 2022-35ChartGHG Impact of Inflation Reduction Act & Bipartisan Infrastructure LawThe DOE estimates that the combined $430 billion in energy provisions under the IRA and IIJA could reduce U.S. GHG emissions by approximately 1,000…Chart 2022-31ChartForegone Tax Revenues from U.S. Federal Renewable Electricity Investment Tax CreditsThe U.S. Congressional Joint Committee on Taxation projects that foregone tax revenues from federal renewable electricity investment tax credits…Chart 39ChartForegone Tax Revenues from U.S. Federal Renewable Electricity Production CreditsThrough 2024, the U.S. Congressional Joint Committee on Taxation projects that foregone federal tax revenues from renewable electricity production…Chart 38ChartCan California Meet Its Aggressive Fossil Fuel GHG Reduction Targets?California has established aggressive targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels, raising questions about whether the state can…Chart 22
How do ESG mandates and the endangerment finding shape policy?
ReportUpdated FYI In Brief Report: “ESG – A Primer”Our popular weekly “Chart of the Week” will now be supplemented with our new “FYI in Brief” series distributed to subscribers and posted on our…Jul 2023CommentaryEnergy Policy Research Commentary on EPA Proposed Rule: “Reconsideration of 2009 Endangerment Finding and Greenhouse Gas Vehicle Standards”The Energy Policy Research Foundation (EPRINC) appreciates the opportunity to submit comments on the proposed rule entitled “Reconsideration…Sep 2025ChartESG Assets Under Management (AUM) Global and U.S. PerspectivesGlobal ESG assets under management exceeded $3.0 trillion by December 2023, up from $600 billion in March 2018, but growth has stalled since late…Chart 2024-12ChartEPA’s Proposed Grid Performance Standards and Their Impact on MISO’s Electricity GridMISO's electricity grid depends heavily on coal and natural gas generation, with hourly data from summer and winter 2023 showing natural gas ramping…Chart 2024-09ChartRevisited: Near- and Short-Term Financial Returns of Green and Legacy Energy Investments vs Key S&P BenchmarksA comparison of near- and short-term financial returns finds that legacy energy investments, green energy investments, and key S&P benchmarks have…Chart 2023-02ChartNear- and Short-Term Financial Returns of Green and Legacy Energy Investments vs Key S&P BenchmarksOver the near- and short-term periods examined, legacy energy investments outperformed green energy investments when measured against key S&P…Chart 2022-19
Further research
EventERIA and IEEJ CoHost Webinar with the Energy Policy Research Foundation on The Role of LNG and Natural Gas Toward and Beyond the Energy Transition in AsiaOn Tuesday, May 23 2025 (DC time), the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA), the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ)…May 2025EventBatt Odgerel Presents at the American Energy Transition Forum in HoustonOn October 23, EPRINC Director of Energy Transition Research Batt Odgerel presented at the American Energy Transition Forum. His presentation,…Oct 2023Commentary“Envisioning the Energy Landscape of Distant Futures” by EPRINC Distinguished Fellow Ivan SandreaEPRINC Distinguished Fellow Ivan Sandrea has penned an article entitled “Envisioning the Energy Landscape of Distant Futures”. He…Sep 2023EventEPRINC and IEEJ CoHost DC Workshop: “Global LNG, Energy Security, and the Transition”The Institute of Energy Economics Japan (IEEJ) in Tokyo and the Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc. (EPRINC) in Washington DC have hosted an…Dec 2022Commentary“The Low Carbon Energy Transition” by Ivan Sandrea and Lucian PugliaresiEPRINC Trustee, OIES Research Associate, CEBRI International Board Member Ivan R. Sandrea Silva and EPRINC President Lucian Pugliaresi have authored…May 2022EventGlobal Gas Centre and EPRINC Co-Host Virtual Workshop “Future of North American Natural Gas In A Carbon-Constrained WorldThe Energy Policy Research Foundation and the Global Gas Centre have jointly hosted a webinar on the “Future of North American Natural Gas In A…Jun 2021EventIEEJ and EPRINC Co-Host Virtual Workshop: The Role Of LNG In A Carbon-Constrained MarketThe Institute of Energy Economics Japan (IEEJ) and the Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc. (EPRINC) jointly hosted a virtual workshop, “The Role…Dec 2020PressJeff Kissel, EPRINC Trustee, Interviewed on ThinkTech HawaiiJay Fidel, the host of ThinkTech Hawaii interviews Jeff Kissel, EPRINC Trustee and former CEO of Hawaii Gas, on the challenges in moving the State…May 2017