EPRINC briefing
Gasoline Markets and Fuel Prices
45 publications
Briefing summary
This briefing tracks U.S. gasoline and refined-product prices and the factors driving them: crude costs, Renewable Fuel Standard compliance credits (RINs), regional formulation rules, and supply disruptions such as the Strait of Hormuz closure, along with their links to freight, air travel, and vehicle demand.
What drives gasoline price volatility?
ReportCAFE, Gasoline Prices and the Law of Diminishing Returns: A New Agenda for the Midterm EvaluationEPRINC has just published CAFE, Gasoline Prices and the Law of Diminishing Returns: A New Agenda for the Midterm Evaluation. The paper was authored…Mar 2016ReportNew Report: Get Ready for a Bumpy Ride – It Could be a Turbulent Year for Gasoline PricesRegulatory constraints are set to drive volatility in the gasoline market over the next 12 to 24 months. Download the full report (PDF)Mar 2013ChartU.S. Household Gasoline Costs by State and Income: March to August 2026Rising fuel prices are a recurring political concern, especially in an election year. Since the start of the Iran War, the average U.S. retail price…Chart 2026-38ChartU.S. Gasoline Prices: Strait of Hormuz Closure vs. the Renewable Fuel StandardComparing U.S. retail regular gasoline price components between January 2024 and April 2026, EPRINC estimates that domestic crude costs have risen…Chart 2026-16ChartStrait of Hormuz Closure: Gasoline and U.S. Fuel PricesAlthough the United States remains largely insulated from the physical shortfalls triggered by the Strait of Hormuz closure, its internationally…Chart 2026-15Chart2025 U.S. Summer Gasoline Prices: Where’s the Spike?U.S. gasoline prices typically climb with the onset of the summer driving season, but during the summer of 2025 they have remained generally flat…Chart 2025-27ChartDisruptions of Pipelined Gasoline from the U.S. Gulf Coast to the Atlantic CoastAs the DOE prepares to sell down the one-million-barrel Northeast Gasoline Supply Reserve between May 27 and June 30, 2024, NOAA's forecast for the…Chart 2024-21ChartSeeking Gasoline Price Relief Through Strategic Petroleum Reserve Sales (Revised)Beginning November 23, 2021, and continuing on March 2 and March 30, 2022, the Biden administration authorized Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases…Chart 2022-12CommentaryWhy Press Secretary Jen Psaki is Not Right in Targeting Retail Filling StationsLike many of our treasured Main Street businesses, the past few years have been hard on these small fuel retailers. However, there may be even more…Dec 2021ChartSeeking Gasoline Price Relief Through Strategic Petroleum Reserve SalesThe Biden administration's November 23, 2021 release of 50 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve marks the first explicit use of the…Chart 37Op-EdLucian Pugliaresi and Max Pyziur Write Op-Ed on the RFS Program and Its Effect on Gasoline PricesEPRINC's Lucian Pugliaresi and Max Pyziur have crafted an op-ed that was published in InsideSources in response to a study published by the…Jun 2019
How does blending and specification affect pump prices?
ReportUpdated and Fully Revised – Gasoline Blending: An EPRINC PrimerIn its current form, gasoline is a blend of several components, most of which are derived from crude oil; the remaining balance is from agricultural…Jun 2024ReportImplementation Issues for the Renewable Fuel Standard – Part IDownload PDF Version of Report (Includes full citations) Summary The Federal government provides a range of subsidies, tax incentives, and…Apr 2011ReportThe Cost of Banning No. 6 Oil in New York CityHowever, local petroleum product markets are not immune to turmoil in world oil markets as is now taking place in Libya. The loss of Libyan crude…Feb 2011ChartU.S. Diesel Price Spikes and Why an Export Ban Would BackfireWith little letup in hostilities and substantial damage to Persian Gulf and Russian refining capacity, global diesel prices have surged. The U.S.…Chart 2026-32ChartChanges in Gasoline Formulations in Response to More Exacting Pollution Standards and Blending MandatesThe chart traces the evolution of U.S. gasoline formulations over the past twenty years, showing how successively more exacting pollution standards…Chart 2024-22ChartEnergy Value of Ethanol vs GasolineOn a volumetric basis ethanol may appear price-competitive with gasoline, but adjusting for its lower energy content per gallon narrows or reverses…Chart 2022-14Op-Ed“Repeal or Reform the RFS”That’s where the problems come in. Refiners and other obligated parties like importers must, per the RFS requirements, document that they have…Aug 2013
What is the effect of gasoline and carbon taxes?
ChartThe Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and Transportation Fuel Prices – RevisitedDiscretionary policy under the Renewable Fuel Standard—particularly the use of small refinery exemptions—drives the price of RINs, whose cost is…Chart 2025-16ChartThe Renewable Fuel Standard and Gasoline PricesSmall refinery exemptions previously helped hold down the cost of Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits, but these compliance costs under…Chart 2022-07CommentaryFederal Gasoline TaxesNobody wants to see their gasoline taxes go up, but the federal excise tax on gasoline has remained at 18.4 cents a gallon since 1993. Could it play…May 2017CommentaryCarbon Taxes on Transportation FuelsEnergy production and consumption in the U.S. face a wide array of subsidies and taxes. For electric power generation, wind and solar power benefit…Apr 2017
Why do California fuel prices diverge from the rest of the US?
ChartCalifornia’s Gasoline Price Premium: A Decade of DivergenceIn 2016 California's gasoline premium over the U.S. national average was 40 cents per gallon (18%). By 2026 it had grown to $1.11 per gallon (30%),…Chart 2026-28ChartWest Coast Product Receipts: The Jones Act Waiver’s Sixfold SurgeCombined April and May 2026 waterborne receipts of Gulf Coast petroleum products into the U.S. West Coast reached 377 thousand barrels per day,…Chart 2026-27ChartBreakdown of California Gasoline PricesCalifornia's retail gasoline price has consistently exceeded the U.S. national average, driven by a stack of state-specific fuel formulation rules,…Chart 2024-39ChartRevisiting California Retail Gasoline Prices vs the U.S.California retail gasoline prices remained consistently above the national average throughout 2022, continuing a persistent gap between the state…Chart 2022-33ChartCalifornia Retail Gasoline Prices vs the U.S.California retail gasoline prices consistently exceed the national average, reflecting the state's distinct fuel specifications, taxes, and…Chart 26CommentaryUnderstanding California’s High Transportation Fuel PricesThis report was authored by Max Pyziur who heads EPRINC’s downstream research program. Max has undertaken extensive assessments of U.S. fuels…Nov 2016PressBatt Odgerel Quoted in JusttheNews Article on California’s EV MandateIn an interview with Kevin Killough for JusttheNews, Energy Policy Research’s Director of Energy Transition Research Batt Odgerel discussed…May 2025
Further research
ReportEmily Medina Crafts Mexico Gasoline and Diesel Market OverviewEPRINC Non-Resident Fellow Emily Medina has crafted a primer on the Mexican Gasoline and Diesel Market as part of the EPRINC Mexico Initiative. The…Jun 2019ReportCash for Guzzlers The program resembles an initiative undertaken by the Unocal Corporation in the early 1990s to remove older autos from the market in an effort to…May 2009ChartShifts in U.S. Jet Fuel Prices and Commercial Air TravelSince the end of February, U.S. jet fuel prices have risen over 80% to an average of $4.10 per gallon in May, up from the roughly $2.10 average that…Chart 2026-20ChartU.S. Diesel Prices and Shifts in Truck-Hauled Freight – RevisitedPairing U.S. diesel prices against truck-hauled freight activity from November 2024 through March 2026, the chart shows that the Strait of Hormuz…Chart 2026-17ChartFuel Cost per Mile in CaliforniaIn California, the fuel cost per mile for electric vehicles remains lower than that of comparable gasoline-powered vehicles, though the magnitude of…Chart 2025-18ChartU.S. Gasoline Sales, Vehicle Miles Traveled, and Motor Vehicle Fuel Efficiency RevisitedU.S. gasoline consumption grew only 0.25% annually between 2000 and 2022, yet vehicle miles traveled rose nearly 1% per year over the same period—an…Chart 2025-04ChartAlternative Economic Indicators: U.S. Diesel Prices and Shifts in Truck-Hauled FreightRetail diesel prices and North American truck-hauled freight volumes move closely together, offering an alternative, high-frequency read on the…Chart 2024-38ChartRising U.S. Transportation Fuel PricesAfter retreating from their twenty-year (non-inflation-adjusted) peaks in late summer 2022, U.S. transportation fuel prices are rising aggressively…Chart 2023-36ChartRevisited: Overview of Tight Distillate MarketsRecovering global demand and new applications, together with reduced refining capacity and lower global inventories, have pushed distillate (diesel…Chart 2022-41Chart2022 Mid-Summer Retail Transportation Fuel PricesThis EPRINC Chart of the Week examines retail transportation fuel prices as of mid-summer 2022.Chart 2022-24ChartOverview of Tight Global Distillate MarketsGlobal demand recovery and new applications, combined with declines in refining capacity and inventories, are driving distillate (diesel and heating…Chart 2022-17ChartU.S. Gasoline Sales vs. Vehicle Miles TravelledHistorical trends in U.S. gasoline sales are examined alongside vehicle miles travelled to assess the relationship between fuel demand and driving…Chart 2022-13ChartU.S. Consumer Energy Expenditures as a Percentage of Disposable IncomeConsumer energy expenditures measured as a share of disposable income provide a useful metric for assessing the relative burden of energy costs on…Chart 2022-06ChartCan California Meet Its Aggressive Fossil Fuel GHG Reduction Targets?California has established aggressive targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels, raising questions about whether the state can…Chart 22ChartU.S. Atlantic Coast is dependent on Gulf Coast and MidContinent Petroleum Product SuppliesThe U.S. Atlantic Coast, spanning Georgia to Maine, relies on petroleum product supplies delivered from the Gulf Coast and MidContinent regions,…Chart 12PressEPRINC Featured in SIGMA MagazineEPRINC’s “Running on Fumes” paper, written by Lucian Pugliaresi, Larry Goldstein, and Will Pack, was recently published in SIGMA Magazine’s 2018…Dec 2017