EPRINC briefing
The Renewable Fuel Standard and Ethanol
35 publications
Briefing summary
This briefing examines the Renewable Fuel Standard's compliance costs, which EPRINC estimates add roughly 27 cents per gallon of transportation fuel (nearly $53 billion annually to U.S. consumers) alongside its effects on refiner margins, ethanol blend rates, and RIN prices.
What does the RFS cost consumers?
ReportEPRINC Issues Report on Technical Constraints and Cost Risks to the Renewable Fuel StandardEPRINC estimates that under current law fuel costs could increase by an additional $0.15 to $0.25 per gallon in 2022, with considerable potential…Nov 2015ChartUpdated Chart of the Week: The Renewable Fuel Standard’s Cost to ConsumersUnder EPA's final renewable volume obligations for compliance years 2026 and 2027, the agency elected to reallocate 70% of previously exempt…Jun 2026ChartU.S. Gasoline Prices: Strait of Hormuz Closure vs. the Renewable Fuel StandardComparing U.S. retail regular gasoline price components between January 2024 and April 2026, EPRINC estimates that domestic crude costs have risen…Chart 2026-16ChartThe Renewable Fuel Standard: Cost to Consumers – RevisitedEPRINC estimates the Renewable Fuel Standard currently adds about 27 cents per gallon of transportation fuel, translating to nearly $53 billion in…Chart 2026-06ChartThe Renewable Fuel Standard: Cost to ConsumersEPRINC estimates that Renewable Fuel Standard compliance adds roughly 20 cents to the cost of each gallon of transportation fuel, translating to…Chart 2025-39ChartForegone Tax Revenues from U.S. Federal Biodiesel Tax CreditsThe federal biodiesel tax credit results in foregone tax revenues for the U.S. Treasury, the magnitude of which varies with the volume of biodiesel…Chart 2022-04Op-EdLucian Pugliaresi and Max Pyziur Write Op-Ed on the RFS Program and Its Effect on Gasoline PricesEPRINC's Lucian Pugliaresi and Max Pyziur have crafted an op-ed that was published in InsideSources in response to a study published by the…Jun 2019CommentaryWill Ethanol Increase the Price of Transportation Fuels?In recent months corn ethanol producers have faced a number of financial setbacks, including at least one highly visible bankruptcy. Although…Apr 2009Press“Ethanol Mandates Creating an Economic Car-Wreck”“Industry experts expect companies to pass the cost along to consumers, to the tune of at least 19 cents per gallon at the pump, according to…Aug 2013
How do RINs and the blend wall constrain compliance?
ReportImplementation Issues for the Renewable Fuel Standard – Part IDownload PDF Version of Report (Includes full citations) Summary The Federal government provides a range of subsidies, tax incentives, and…Apr 2011ChartThe Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) Ethanol Blend RatesAlthough EPA mandated a 12.5% ethanol blend rate in 2024, U.S. gasoline marketers in the aggregate blended at only 10%, a persistent gap driven by…Chart 2026-03ChartThe Renewable Fuel Standard: Costs to RefinersAs aggressive federal policy has tightened credit supplies, RIN prices have doubled since January 2025, and EPRINC estimates that compliance with…Chart 2025-28ChartThe Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and Transportation Fuel Prices – RevisitedDiscretionary policy under the Renewable Fuel Standard—particularly the use of small refinery exemptions—drives the price of RINs, whose cost is…Chart 2025-16ChartThe Renewable Fuel Standard and Gasoline PricesSmall refinery exemptions previously helped hold down the cost of Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits, but these compliance costs under…Chart 2022-07CommentaryEPRINC President Lucian Pugliaresi’s Comments on EPA Blending RequirementsRead Lucian Pugliaresi’s recent comment on EPA’s Proposed Rule for biofuel blending requirements through 2017.Aug 2015CommentaryEPRINC Comments on the Proposed 2014 Standards for the Renewable Fuel Standard ProgramEPRINC submitted comments regarding EPA’s proposed 2014 standards for the Renewable Fuel Standard ProgramJan 2014Op-Ed“Repeal or Reform the RFS”That’s where the problems come in. Refiners and other obligated parties like importers must, per the RFS requirements, document that they have…Aug 2013CommentaryA Primer on Requirements for the Use of Renewable Fuels in the U.S. Transportation SectorBetween 1981 and 1984, a “Solar and Energy Conservation Bank” was established which was authorized to spend $3 billion to provide loans for solar…Jul 2009AnnouncementRINs Around the Rosy App Available for iPhone and iPadRINs Around the Rosy enables you to take on a variety of roles, from EPA Administrator to gasoline blender, in an attempt to guide the refined…Feb 2014
Should the RFS be repealed or reformed?
TestimonyEPRINC President Lucian Pugliaresi Testifies Before Senate Environment and Public Works Committee on RFSOn Wednesday, February 16 2022, EPRINC President Lucian Pugliaresi testified before the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works at a…Feb 2022ReportThe U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard Background, Controversies, & Reform, or, This Crisis, … or the Next?This 2018 publication predates EPRINC’s current website, and the original document is no longer available in the archive. For EPRINC’s…Jun 2018ReportThe Biofuel Mandate for Transportation Fuels: Where Do We Go From Here?It’s likely that some agricultural interests, and specifically ethanol producers, are going to either oppose or at least raise serious questions…Jan 2017TestimonyTestimony on February 24, 2016 by Lucian Pugliaresi before the U.S. Senate Committee on Environment& Public Works, Now With Follow-Up Questions And ResponsesLucian Pugliaresi testified before the U.S. Senate Committee on Environment & Public Works on February 24, 2016. The topic was the Renewable…Apr 2016TestimonyTestimony on February 24, 2016 by Lucian Pugliaresi before the U.S. Senate Committee on Environment& Public WorksOn February 24, 2016, Lucian Pugliaresi testified before the Senate Committee on Environment& Public Works on the Renewable Fuel Standard.…Mar 2016TestimonyTestimony on EPA/RFS, recent presentations by EPRINC staffLou’s written testimony is available here (PDF). Trisha Curtis presented on May 30 before Hart Energy’s DUG Bakken and Niobrara conference in…Jun 2013CommentaryComments on Energy and Commerce Committee’s First RFS White PaperIn response to the House Energy and Commerce Committee’s request for comments on its first white paper addressing the blendwall and other RFS…Apr 2013
Does corn ethanol deliver its promised benefits?
ChartEstimating U.S. Biodiesel CostsA typical gallon of commercially produced biodiesel costs nearly $4.70, well above the current national average retail diesel pump price of $3.88,…Chart 2023-22ChartThe Renewable Fuel Standard: Do D6 RIN Prices Impact Corn Prices? A Simple Regression AnalysisA simple regression analysis finds essentially no meaningful relationship between D6 RIN price changes and corn price changes: although several…Chart 2022-45ChartEnergy Value of Ethanol vs GasolineOn a volumetric basis ethanol may appear price-competitive with gasoline, but adjusting for its lower energy content per gallon narrows or reverses…Chart 2022-14CommentaryEthanol’s Lost PromiseCorn ethanol is not mandated under the RFS. However, 98% of “conventional biofuels” produced in the U.S. and blended into gasoline are derived from…Sep 2012
Further research
ReportEPRINC Releases Report on the Role of Octane in U.S. Transportation FuelsOver the course of the last forty years, automobile manufacturers have had to comply with a variety of increasingly stringent Federal and State…Feb 2019ChartChanges in Gasoline Formulations in Response to More Exacting Pollution Standards and Blending MandatesThe chart traces the evolution of U.S. gasoline formulations over the past twenty years, showing how successively more exacting pollution standards…Chart 2024-22ChartThe Renewable Diesel Margin – Post-2023 RFS RVO Set RuleFollowing EPA's June 21, 2023 final Renewable Fuel Standard "set" rule, which held the 2023 biomass diesel volume obligations flat rather than…Chart 2023-28ChartCalculating The Renewable Diesel MarginThe renewable diesel margin, a spread that gauges the implied returns of renewable diesel production, showed little volatility from 2016 through…Chart 2023-23