Updated Chart of the Week: The Renewable Fuel Standard’s Cost to Consumers
The costs of the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program are passed-through to consumers. With the new EPA ruling for 2026 and 2027 compliance years, RINs (Renewable Identification Numbers) prices have jumped from $1 at the beginning of 2026 to almost $2.50. EPRINC, using an S&P Global-derived model, estimates that at current prices, the RFS adds 45 cents per gallon to a cost of gasoline. With annual U.S. gasoline consumption at 140 billion gallons that implies an economic cost of $66 billion to U.S. consumers.
Background:
The RFS is a 20 year national fuel program. It mandates the blending of increasing volumes of biofuels into gasoline and diesel. The mandates are known as Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs). Compliance is managed by EPA through an environmental credits known as RINs.
Beginning in 2022 and continuing forward, EPA has full discretion on setting blending mandates. Obligated parties (refiners and terminal operators) redeem RINs to show compliance. When an obligated party cannot generate sufficient RINs, they purchase RINs through an EPA-managed system. Given that the most recent EPA blending rule published in February 2026 for compliance years 2026 and 2027 is particularly aggressive, RIN prices have spiked in 2026.
