Under EPA’s final renewable volume obligations for compliance years 2026 and 2027, the agency elected to reallocate 70% of previously exempt volumes—above the range advocated by petroleum interests and below the level sought by biofuel interests. Following the late March 2026 announcement, RIN prices, already elevated, rose between 6% and 9%.
Using a mathematical model adapted from S&P Platts, the adjacent figure reflects EPRINC’s ongoing estimates of the RFS’s additional cost per gallon of fuel, rising from 15 cents per gallon in January 2024 to 45 cents in May 2026. At a current estimate of 45 cents per gallon and 140 billion gallons of annual U.S. gasoline consumption, annual total economic cost is projected to be over $66 billion to U.S. consumers.
Under U.S. law, refiners and importers must meet blending mandates to include specific volumes of biofuels in the marketing of transportation fuels. The law is known as the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and is administered by EPA.
The RFS, enacted in 2005, and then strengthened in 2007, is complicated. Following a period ending in 2022 of statutory requirements determining blending percentages, its administrative authority has become discretionary. Currently, provisional blending percentages for 2026 and 2027 are under debate and review along with provisions of reallocating previously made exemptions as further blending requisites.
Compliance is managed using RINs (Renewable fuel Identification Numbers), a costly credit system that ascertains blending requirements. RIN prices reflect whether blending mandates are aggressive or lax. These costs are then passed on to consumers of gasoline and diesel.
For more information on this chart, please contact Max Pyziur (maxp@eprinc.org).
Cite: EPRINC, “Updated Chart of the Week: The Renewable Fuel Standard’s Cost to Consumers,” Chart of the Week , June 10, 2026.