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EPRINC studies energy economics and policy issue with special emphasis on oil, natural gas and petroleum product markets. We provide objective and technical analysis on a wide range of energy issues.

Chart of the Week

Energy Trade Positively Impacts the U.S. Trade Balance

Policymakers have long been concerned with the impacts of energy imports on U.S. trade, especially beginning in the late 1950s as the country moved to negative energy trade imbalances. Despite attempting to remedy these imbalances, they exacerbated the 1970s energy shortages creating ongoing concerns of potential future vulnerabilities.

 

However, beginning in the 2000s, new extraction technologies knowing as hydrofracking were applied to shale geological formations. With innovation and enhancements these technologies have led to a resurgence of U.S. crude oil and natural gas production.

 

This resurgence is broadly visible in a variety of realms. With respect to U.S. trade, the U.S. energy trade balance began moving from a deficit to a surplus in late 2018. Where during 2010, the U.S. reported a $20-plus billion monthly deficit, which breached $30 billion in 2012, the bounty of U.S. energy production has caused the balance to rise to a current $9.5 billion surplus with the trend continuing upward

Anthony Livanios, CEO of US Energy Stream, has joined EPRINC as a distinguished fellow.  He brings over twenty-five years of experience in working alongside, oil majors, oil independents, and national oil companies, on intergovernmental agreements, pipeline negotiations, LNG projects, geopolitical risk assessments, and market intelligence. We look forward to his good counsel and broad experience. A full biography of Anthony can be found here.

The Institute of Energy Economics Japan (IEEJ) and EPRINC have undertaken a joint assessment of the future role of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Asian power and fuel markets. The research and survey project includes specific recommendations for policy makers and other stakeholders on strategies to both support LNG demand in Asia and to improve the competitiveness of U.S. natural gas in the region.

The Embassy of Canada, in partnership with the Energy Policy Research Foundation Inc., sponsored a panel discussion at the Embassy on September 6th, 2017. The discussion focused on the opportunities and challenges associated with advancing North American energy integration, and recent U.S. initiatives to enact regulatory reform and other measures to provide a timely build out of pipelines, processing and export facilities, and other related energy infrastructure.

EPRINC and IEEJ established a joint research program to evaluate the “Future of Asian LNG Demand.” The effort was initiated with a joint workshop of experts, industry representatives, and government officials on July 20, 2017 in Washington D.C. and has since been followed by a meeting with Japanese industry experts in Tokyo on July 28, 2017. An overview of the research effort can be found here, and photos from the inaugural workshop are located here.

Max takes us through the role octane has played to meet both engine performance requirements as well as its growing role as a strategy to meet the regulatory requirements of Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards.  As is always the case when it comes to fuel specifications and engine performance, it is complicated. Max outlines the historical trends and the trade-offs ahead.  The event took place on June 26, 2017 in Washington, DC. The presentation can be found here.
An EPRINC assessment on US energy trade with Mexico was recently published in the Forum, A quarterly journal for debating energy issues and policies  from the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies. This issue of the journal from June 2017 is entirely dedicated to energy developments in Mexico.  The piece by Lucian Pugliaresi is on the growing importance to the United States of energy trade with Mexico and our southern neighbor’s contribution  to an  integrated North American petroleum production  platform.  The article begins on page 44 and the recent edition of Forum can be found here.

On a very sad note EPRINC recently lost two colleagues. Our former Chairman and current honorary Chairman, John Lichtblau, passed away on May 29, 2017. He was 94 years old.  On May 17, 2017 we lost Bob Greco, an EPRINC Distinguished Fellow. Bob was 57 years old.

We’ve known both of these good men for more years than we can recall and we will miss much more than their good counsel. We will miss their intellectual curiosity, optimism and close friendship.

On June 7, 2017 EPRINC’s President, Lucian Pugliaresi, presented at the 2017 Washington Oil & Gas Forum. A copy of his presentation can be found here.

Jay Fidel, the host of ThinkTech Hawaii interviews Jeff Kissel, EPRINC Trustee and former CEO of Hawaii Gas,  on the challenges in moving the State of Hawaii to 100 percent reliance on renewable fuels.  A link to the interview can be found here.

Nobody wants to see their gasoline taxes go up, but the federal excise tax on gasoline has remained at 18.4 cents a gallon since 1993. Could it play a role in helping to get tax reform approved and should it be adjusted at least for inflation? Lucian Pugliaresi, Larry Goldstein, and Will Pack take us through a short analysis on the gasoline tax, its upside as a revenue raiser and potential instrument for regulatory reform in the transportation fuels sector and its downside as a regressive tax. The paper can be found here.

Lucian Pugliaresi and Max Pyziur penned an Op Ed in the The Hill outlining their views on why the Mid Term Evaluation (MTE)  on the efficacy of CAFE should get a full review.  Although many commentators have viewed the Trump Administration’s decision to proceed with a  full review of CAFE as a regulatory roll back, the decision merely restores the original agreement to give the program a full review in 2017 before giving the green light on the more stringent standards through 2025.  A link to their Op Ed in The Hill  can be found here and an EPRINC version of the Op Ed can be found here.
If excise and road  taxes were converted to carbon taxes how much would drivers be paying? Will Pack and Steven Lee have a short note estimating the implicit carbon tax already in place for transportation fuels.  Any program to impose carbon taxes will have to consider that some fuels are already paying taxes.  A copy of the EPRINC note can be found here.

Lucian Pugliaresi presented at the 8th Mediterranean Oil & Gas Forum 2017 held on March 1-2, 2017 in Nicosia, Cyprus. His remarks and presentation  covered the energy policies of the incoming administration of President Donald J. Trump. A copy of his presentation can be found here.

Larry Goldstein takes a look at the challenges in paying for tax reform. If the border adjustment tax is dead, where do we go from here?  The carbon tax is unlikely to get much attention, so what about gasoline taxes?   Larry’s commentary on this important topic can be found here.
North American energy trade has been an enormous engine of economic growth and increased energy security and resiliency for all the trading partners in NAFTA.  Lucian Pugliaresi provides a commentary and why this issue should be given top priority to make sure it does not fall victim to populist sentiment. His commentary can be found here.

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