U.S., Canadian, and Mexican energy markets are poised for substantial and sustained growth contributing to expanded employment and energy abundance throughout the North American continent. This production growth offers both energy security and growing abundance in oil and gas supplies for consumers in all three countries. An integrated energy market is of high value for the U.S., which provides a ready market for higher volumes of natural gas production, refined products, as well as exports of advanced oil field services and equipment.
As negotiations get started on the future of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), it is essential we have a full understanding of not just trade concerns in the manufacturing sector, but the long-term economic and security stakes for the U.S. of sustaining and promoting full integration of the North American energy market.
This expansion in North American energy output took its lead from the U.S. petroleum renaissance that saw domestic crude oil rise from 5 million barrels/day (MBD) in 2008 to over 9.5 MBD by mid-2015. Although U.S. production fell back by nearly 1 MBD when oil prices collapsed in the second half of 2015, output is rising now with the recent gain in world oil prices. U.S. natural gas production has followed a similar path growing from 45 billion cubic feet/day (Bcf/d) in 1985 to nearly 75 Bcf/d in 2015.
Our NAFTA partners are participating in this petroleum renaissance. The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers forecast oil sands production in Alberta to rise from 3.8 MBD to 4.9 MBD by 2030. Energy reform and privatization in Mexico promises to halt the decline in crude oil production in an oil province historically starved for investment by a government monopoly.