EPRINC briefing
Oil Production Outlook and Peak Oil Debate
24 publications
Briefing summary
This briefing examines U.S. and global oil production trajectories and the recurring peak oil debate, including shale efficiency gains that tripled Lower 48 output on 25% fewer federal leases since 2015, upstream underinvestment, and diverging long-term demand forecasts.
Are we facing a supply glut or a shortfall?
Report“A Critical Assessment of the IEA’s Net Zero Scenario, ESG, and the Cessation of Investment in New Oil and Gas Fields”We are excited to announce the launch of our report, “A Critical Assessment of the IEA’s Net Zero Scenario, ESG, and the Cessation of Investment in…Jun 2023ReportTrisha Curtis on U.S. Shale Oil Production in a Low-Price EnvironmentThe report was an important discussion item at the annual “Oil Day” OIES workshop in Oxford on November 17, 2015. The full report is…Nov 2015ChartU.S. Crude Oil Production – Potential HeadwindsU.S. crude oil markets face flattening, range-bound prices and rising costs, conditions that are pulling down rig counts and slowing the pace of…Chart 2023-29ChartU.S. Crude Oil Production New EIA Data Reveals ShortfallsSince the COVID-related supply decline, U.S. crude oil production has recovered by 1.6 million barrels per day. However, despite significant…Chart 2022-28ChartLong-Term Underinvestment in Upstream Oil & Gas Production Foreshadows High Prices as Global Demand ReturnsAnnual financial reports from several major oil and gas companies indicate that upstream capital expenditures have remained low despite rising oil…Chart 33Commentary“With Global Oil Demand on the Rebound, What About Supply?” By Rafael SandreaEPRINC’s Rafael Sandrea has published another paper, this one entitled “With Global Oil Demand on the Rebound, What About Supply?”…Apr 2021ChartWith Global Oil Demand on the Rebound, What About Supply?About EPRINC The Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc. (EPRINC) was founded in 1944 and is a not-for-profit, non-partisan organization that…Chart 7CommentaryNatural Gas Industry Fakes the Moon LandingThe NYT’s reporter relied extensively on anecdotal evidence and commentary on developments in the natural gas industry from both industry and…Jul 2011CommentaryIraq – First LookIn December 2009, the government of Iraq held a competitive auction for the rights to develop 60 billion barrels (bbls) of proven crude oil reserves…Mar 2010PressDistinguished Fellow Michael Lynch in Forbes on Shale Oil PessimismEPRINC Distinguished Fellow Michael Lynch examines shale oil pessimism in Forbes. Read the full piece at Forbes.Sep 2025PressMax Pyziur Featured in Scripps News John Mone’s Report on IEA’s Recent View of a Looming Glut in Oil Production CapacityEPRINC’s Max Pyziur was featured in Scripps News reporter John Mone’s report examining the International Energy Agency’s recent…Jun 2024AnnouncementEPRINC Distinguished Fellow Rafael Sandrea Has Been Alerting Us to the Oil Supply Issue for a Long TimeRafael Sandrea is President of IPC Petroleum Consultants, Inc., a Tulsa based international petroleum consulting firm which specializes in oil and…Mar 2022PressEIA: U.S. oil production to test all-time peaks in 2016The projections reflect “a remarkable achievement in technological innovation and long-term capital investment” in the oil and natural gas…Dec 2013PressWSJ: The Crude-Oil Market’s Future TenseThe article is in a way a brief update of that report, arguing that crude oil’s 2009 rally can be in part attributed to investor expectations of a…Jun 2009
How valid are Hubbert-method peak-oil forecasts?
ReportDoes the Hubbert Method Provide a Reliable Means of Predicting Future Oil Production?What could we possibly learn from an article on oil supply published almost 20 years ago? Actually, quite a lot. At the time of publication in 2006,…Aug 2023TestimonyPresentation before the Middle East Policy CouncilAs the chairman said, I’m a substitute for Herman Franssen, who is a trustee of our organization, the Energy Policy Research Foundation. EPRINC has…May 2010Op-EdWSJ Opinion: The Lessons of the Shale Gas RevolutionOpinion September 30, 2011 The Lessons of the Shale Gas Revolution North American oil production can double by 2035. By LUCIAN PUGLIARESI Where can…Oct 2011
Is peak oil demand a realistic near-term prospect?
Report“Unconventional and Underestimated: U.S. Shale” by Trisha CurtisThe production of oil and gas from unconventional geologic formations (generally called shale oil and gas) has lifted the U.S. into the world’s…Jul 2023ChartLarge Uncertainties Remain on Long-term Petroleum DemandLong-term projections of global petroleum demand continue to diverge significantly across forecasts, reflecting substantial uncertainty about the…Chart 2024-42CommentaryThe Pandemic and the End of Oil? The Pandemic, Peak Oil Demand, and the Oil Industry – By Michael Lynch and Ivan SandreaRecent months have seen a growing crescendo of claims that a peak in oil demand may be near, or even be past. Pandemic-related changes in behavior…Feb 2021
How should resource-scarcity claims be assessed?
Further research
ChartDespite Decrease in Operational Leases, Crude Oil Production Efficiency Gains are Growing Exponentially in the US Lower 48Since 2015, operational oil leases on Federal lands in the Lower 48 have fallen 25%, yet the total daily crude production of wells still in…Chart 2025-30ChartIncremental Growth in Global Oil Production Since 2010From the rise of the Shale Revolution in 2010 until the onset of COVID-19 in 2020, the United States accounted for 82% of the incremental growth in…Chart 19EventEPRINC Hosts Virtual Workshop: There Will Be OilOn Tuesday, July 7, 2020, EPRINC hosted another virtual workshop in its series on COVID-19 and the Future of Oil and Gas. This workshop was titled…Jul 2020