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EPRINC studies energy economics and policy issue with special emphasis on oil, natural gas and petroleum product markets. We provide objective and technical analysis on a wide range of energy issues.

Chart of the Week

North American Natural Gas Platform: Natural Gas Pipeline Flows, Jan-Nov 2024

  • The US shares an extensive natural gas pipeline network with its neighbors, which addresses mismatches between distant locations of supply and demand within the country. Such an integrated system makes natural gas transportation highly efficient and cost-effective, creating synergies for all three countries.
  • The US meets natural gas demand in the Midwest, Mountain and Pacific Northwest regions with competitively priced Canadian gas, while exporting excess supply from Gulf Coast plays to Mexico via pipeline and to European and Asian buyers as liquefied natural gas (LNG).
  • According to EIA data from January to November 2024, the Lower-48 states exported on average 9.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of natural gas via pipeline, mostly to Mexico, while importing 8.7 bcfd from Canada. During this period, the US had net LNG exports of 11.5 bcfd, 98% of which were shipped from terminals in Louisiana, Texas, and Maryland.
  • The high level of infrastructure connectivity also provides the US with a critical layer of energy security, resilience, and protection against price hikes through increased supply diversification. Any barriers—such as tariffs—to these gas flows within the North American platform, therefore, may not only reduce efficiency but also pose energy security risks to the US.

EPRINC Distinguished Fellow Michael Lynch has published another piece in Forbes, entitled “Oil Companies Should Listen To Activists—But Skeptically“. Click the link to read the full article on the Forbes website! A PDF of the piece can be found here.

In an interview with Kevin Killough for Just the News, EPRINC’s Max Pyziur discusses the formidable efficiency gains that have been made by data centers helping to deliver increasing loads while questions remain as to their future electricity demand growth. The article, “America’s electricity grid is stressed, and new data centers may put even bigger demands on it“, was published February 18, 2024.

On Tuesday, December 5 2023, Energy Policy Research hosted a workshop called: “Pathways to Net Zero: Electric Power and EVs”. The workshop consisted of two panels to address the central tasks necessary to proceed with an energy transition that relies upon a rapid electrification of the national economy. We expect our attendees to participate in the discussion. Experts that are undertaking assessments on operational risks to the national grid from EPA energy mandates and the acceleration in power demand for EVs and other electrification proposals participated, as well as representatives from the automotive industry.

Our existing assessments on “Net Zero” have outlined cost risks, technology constraints, and regulatory obstacles for a rapid build out of the electric grid, including power requirements to meet demand from the expansion of EVs. Sound policy will require a careful understanding of the challenges ahead.

An agenda from the workshop is here, and some of the presentations that were given at the workshop can be found below.

EPRINC Trustee Larry Goldstein was quoted in two separate articles, one by CNBC and one by the New York Times, on the topics of the recent acquisitions by oil majors ExxonMobil and Chevron. Links to the articles are below:

CNBC – Why Exxon and Chevron are doubling down on fossil fuel energy with big acquisitions by Cat Clifford

Larry Goldstein ([email protected]) is an internationally recognized authority on petroleum markets, and has extensive advisory relationships with energy companies, research institutes, and government agencies. He is a former president of the Petroleum Industry Research Foundation (PIRINC) now the Energy Policy Research Foundation (EPRINC), its successor organization, and continues to be on EPRINC’s Board of Trustees. He was a founder and president of the PIRA Energy Group, a major energy consulting firm that was acquired by S&P Global in 2016.

On Monday October 23, 2o23, RealClear Energy published an article titled “Streamline the Regulatory Process to Expedite U.S. LNG Exports”, coauthored by EPRINC President Lucian Pugliaresi and President & CEO of The USLNG Association (“LNG Allies”) Fred Hutchison. In the article, they make a strong case against “the current slow pace of the Department of Energy’s U.S. LNG export authorizations to countries with which the U.S. does not have a free trade agreement (FTA) that includes natural gas—which, by the way, includes all of Europe, including the United Kingdom and Türkiye.” They argue that “U.S. LNG exports are making substantial contributions to U.S. trade balances and domestic employment and bolstering the energy security of our allies. The disruption of pipeline gas shipments to Europe following the Russian invasion of Ukraine was a severe blow to European economic growth and security.”

 

The full article can be found on the RealClear Energy website, here.

On October 23, EPRINC Director of Energy Transition Research Batt Odgerel presented at the American Energy Transition Forum. His presentation, titled “Understanding the Cost, Risk, and Scale Challenge of the Net Zero Transition”, can be found here.

According to the American Energy Transition Forum’s website:

“The American Energy Transition Forum will explore the tools and technologies which will propel this decarbonization journey. The event will gather like-minded stakeholders from the public, business, scientific and innovation sectors. The event will tackle various decarbonization pathways, such as expansion of renewable energy production, carbon capture and storage technology, hydrogen, ammonia and advanced biofuels. Although one of the ultimate goals seems to be fossil fuel substitution with renewables, such sources of energy as LNG cannot be left out as part of successful energy transition. In addition to energy resources, such important areas as climate-tech investments, digitized solutions for energy transition acceleration, energy efficiency and many more topics crucial to the decarbonization journey will be addressed at the event.”

On Wednesday, October 18 2023, EPRINC President Lucian Pugliaresi participated in the Hudson Institute’s panel discussion entitled: “The Arab Oil Embargo 50 Years Later: Lessons Learned and Missed Opportunities”. Specifically, Lou was a member of the panel that focused on “Lessons Learned” from the embargo.

 

A recording of the event and more information about the discussion are available on the Hudson Institute’s website, here.

On Wednesday, October 11, Eurasia Foundation hosted an opening ceremony for 25 new Young Professionals Network (YPN) fellows. Batt Odgerel, Director of Energy Transition Research at Energy Policy Research, joined “a diverse array of professional backgrounds, including consulting firms, think tanks, universities, governmental, non-governmental, and international organizations. It includes fellows from Accenture Federal Services, American Councils for International Education, American Enterprise Institute, American University, the Atlantic Council, Chemonics International, Dataminr, the Foreign Service, Freedom House, Georgetown University, Hudson Institute, International Business Initiatives, Johns Hopkins University, National Endowment for Democracy, Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, Solidarity Center, TD International, and the World Bank Group’s CGAP. The new cohort also represents six countries: Armenia, China, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Singapore, and the United States. All have extensive education, work experience, and language skills relating to the Eurasia region.”

See more here.

EPRINC is excited to announce the new Gaskins Center for Energy Security Studies, named after EPRINC Chairman Dr. Darius W. Gaskins Jr. and established to explore strategies to sustain and enhance American energy security. The Gaskins Center Brochure contains more information about the Center and Dr. Gaskins’s extraordinary accomplishments.

EPRINC Distinguished Fellow Ivan Sandrea has penned an article entitled “Envisioning the Energy Landscape of Distant Futures”. He writes:

“In contemplating the energy system’s distant future, we encounter a range of outcomes that require a paradigm shift, if not a quantum leap, to satisfy future energy needs. In this concise essay, I invite exploration into the potential visage of energy demand and supply – be it a century or even half a millennium from now. As Nils Bohr aptly put it, predicting the future is an intricate endeavor, particularly when it pertains to what lies ahead. So, I am not predicting the future.”

Ivan’s article can be found here.

On September 27-29, 2023, the 8th HAEE Energy Transition Symposium, entitled “Rethinking Energy: A secure and sustainable future” was hosted by the Hellenic Association for Energy Economics at the French Institute of Greece. EPRINC President Lucian Pugliaresi moderated a panel on “Hydrocarbon Energy Transition Pathways”. The discussion covered leveraging national resources and exploration phases, an update on achieving climate neutrality in natural gas networks, and hydrocarbons and renewable energy equilibrium towards 2050. The other panelists were Aristofanis Stefatos, CEO, Hellenic Hydrocarbons & Energy Resources Management Company SA and Ioannis Maris, Country Representative Greece, Trans Adriatic Pipeline AG.

A video recording of the panel can be found here.

The full overview of the event, including an agenda and a full list of speakers from the event, is here.

Other video recordings of other panels from the event can be found on HAEE’s Youtube account, here.

Lahaina Tragedy: Some Preliminary Lessons for Policymakers and Global Resilience” is a short article prepared by Jeffrey M. Kissel, an EPRINC Trustee and former CEO of HawaiiGas. He lived in Hawaii for 50 years and is now the Executive Vice President and CFO of Global Infrastructure Solutions, a diversified Engineering and Construction company. Jeffrey knows Hawaii, power systems, and infrastructure from long experience, and penned this article to provide his insight to the discussion of the fires in Lahaina.

Acknowledging their shared history and aspirations for regional economic prosperity and security, the Three Seas Initiative (3SI) was formally announced in 2015 in a joint declaration by the Polish and Croatian Presidents. It has quickly grown to its current size of twelve-member Central European countries with Greece’s membership (as thirteenth) to be announced at the September 6th-7th 2023 3SI Summit and Business Forum in Bucharest Romania. 3SI seeks to coordinate regional economic policy focusing on the development of digital, energy, and transportation infrastructure in the region.
Energy Policy Research’s next FYI In Brief briefing, “The Three Seas Initiative (3SI):  An Introduction And Energy Security Assessment,” is being published one day ahead of the 3SI’s annual summit. The briefing seeks to provide policymakers with an overview and insights into the 3SI’s economy, history, energy and energy security issues, Priority Projects, as well as a set of policy recommendations.
The FYI In Brief briefing can be found here.

During the last two weeks of August 2023, Energy Policy Research’s president, Lucian Pugliaresi, was invited to Italy and the United Kingdom to discuss our recent research and analysis on the headwinds to “Net Zero.”  The visit began with a visit to Erice, Italy at the Ettore Majorana Foundation and Centre for Scientific Culture named for a Italian physicist, born in Sicily in 1906. The Centre is situated in the old pre-medieval city of Erice. He then visited London and made a presentation at the Institute for Economic Affairs and also at the two day meeting of the  Parliamentary Security Forum attended by over 250 parliamentarians from around the world. Among topics discussed were strategies to address cyber security, human trafficking, cyber security, money laundering, and the “challenges to Net Zero.”  The parliamentary meetings were hosted by the House of Commons.  The presentations are summarized in the attached power point.

On August 1, 2023, Batt Odgerel, Director of Energy Transition Research at Energy Policy Research Foundation, delivered a presentation at the 2023 Annual Conference jointly hosted by the Hawai‛i Asia Pacific Institute (HAPI) and Northeast Asia Economic Forum (NEAEF) in Honolulu, Hawai‛i. His presentation centered on the energy trilemma, encompassing energy security, sustainability, and affordability, within the context of Northeast Asia. Batt Odgerel explored pragmatic avenues to enhance collaboration in the region, taking into account the geopolitical and historical challenges at play.

The 32nd Annual Forum took place August 1-2, 2023, and brought together established professionals in Hawai‘i, North America, and the Asia-Pacific region across the research, business, and government fields to facilitate functional cooperation and tangible partnerships around this year’s theme through presentations, panel discussions, and informal networking and dialogue.

 See Batt Odgerel’s presentation here.

Photo credit: Siobhan Ng, NEAEF

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