• “The Low Carbon Energy Transition” by Ivan Sandrea and Lucian Pugliaresi

    EPRINC Trustee, OIES Research Associate, CEBRI International Board Member Ivan R. Sandrea Silva and EPRINC President Lucian Pugliaresi have authored a paper entitled “The Low Carbon Energy Transition: A window of opportunity for a new phase of economic development in Africa and Latin America?” This paper is directly related to a presentation given by Ivan at the CEBRI  online conference called “Sustainability and the New Energy Economy in a Multipolar World.” A pull quote from the paper is below:

    “In the African and Latin American regions, climate change concerns and the energy transition have received a lot of negative and positive attention and is building significant support especially among the growing youth. But the energy transition is also causing recurring dislocations for both global and regional leaders, the industry, investors, and policymakers. The environment itself is also being affected, and ironically, the level of confidence for the net zero path is dropping as rising energy prices hit the region’s economies. This is because the energy transition “movement’ in the Western world is occurring in a very disorganized and uncoordinated manner, and that is where we see both a major problem unfolding and an opportunity for the leading economies and leaders.”

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  • GGC/EPRINC Webinar “Power Disruptions in Texas and California: Energy Price Shocks in Europe”

    EPRINC has cohosted a webinar with the Global Gas Centre (GGC). The workshop was held on February 2, 2022 at 9:00 to 11:30 AM (Washington time) / 3:00 to 5:30 PM (Geneva time).

    Recent power failures in the U.S. have raised public concerns about the stability and resilience of North American electricity grids. Spiking energy prices in Europe and ongoing constraints in natural gas supplies are pointing to a sustained crisis on the European Continent. While no single event can be identified as the primary cause of this turmoil, energy policies have played an important role and hold lessons for policy makers on both sides of the Atlantic.

    Speakers included former U.S. Secretary of Energy Dan Brouillette; former Chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), Neil Chatterjee; Arno Büx from Fluxys, European Natural Gas System Operator; Thomas Popik, Chairman and President, Foundation for Resilient Societies;
    as well as U.S. and European industry leaders, experts from think tanks, the Global Gas Center and the Energy Policy Research Foundation. The discussion covered growing pressures on energy markets in the U.S. and Europe and what lessons policy makers should take from these developments.

    A video recording of the workshop can be found here. Presentations from the event are here, and the event agenda is here. A report and overview of the workshop is here.

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  • Lucian Pugliaresi Testifies Before the House Committee on Energy and Commerce

    On Tuesday, November 16 2021, EPRINC President Lucian Pugliaresi participated in a marathon hearing with the House Committee on Energy and Commerce. Some of the notable comments he made, pulling from EPRINC’s research on the ongoing energy transition, are listed below. In addition, the full testimony with charts is here and a video of the hearing in its entirety can be found here.

    1. The Energy System is highly complicated, inter-connected regionally and globally in ways that are not always apparent. The energy transition presents a new set of supply and price risks for consumers and manufacturers. Fully implementing an energy transition over the next 30 years is neither easy nor can it be assured.

    2. Achieving net zero in the developed world will reduce carbon emissions by only a small amount, likely no more than 20 percent of expected global emissions.

    3. Regulatory programs as well as private sector commitments to accelerate the energy transition – whether it be mandates, targets, financial and procurement guidelines create uncertainty and financial risks that limit investment commitments to current legacy fuels, many of which are likely to remain in demand for years to come.

    4. Most of the recent escalation in energy prices can be tied directly to dislocations in energy supplies (largely oil and gas) from the Covid-19 pandemic. However, government policies, such as the halt on leasing on federal lands, the cancellation of the Keystone Pipeline, the potential cancellation of line 5 from Canada, rising regulatory requirements and permitting delays are all threatening North American oil and gas production. We undermine this strategic asset at our peril if we abandon these fuels before the energy transition is well established.

    5. Policy Matters. The US should see the current energy crisis in Europe as a cautionary tale and learn from it.

    6. Policy initiatives that seek to accelerate the U.S. to a fully renewable energy complex will have global implications for energy security.

    7. The transition will establish new environmental challenges and energy security issues in addition to the old.

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  • “The Future of Venezuela’s Oil Industry” by Rafael Sandrea and Martin Essenfeld

    Throughout much of the developed world, there is a consensus that concern over climate change is leading to a rapid downturn in petroleum use and that petroleum will likely have a rapidly declining role in the world’s energy mix over the next 30 years. However, a rapid energy transition to a world no longer reliant on fossil fuels represents a formidable challenge and a high likelihood remains, especially in the developing world, that petroleum’s important and large contribution to the world energy mix will not be so easily displaced. Recent EIA forecasts show that world oil and gas demand has reverted to trend. Supply requirements for the end of 2022 are likely to exceed 100 million barrels/day, a remarkable recovery from a decline in liquids demands of over 15 million barrels a day in 2020 from the Covid-19 pandemic. Although Venezuelan oil production has been constrained by both technical mismanagement and sanctions, the size of its reserve base documents its potentially important role in meeting future world oil demand.

    The timing of Venezuela’s petroleum future depends on whether it can enter the world oil market under traditional commercial conditions. On June 25, 2021, the U.S., Canada, and the E.U. issued a joint communiqué that made clear that a decision regarding the timing and specifics of the sanctions on Venezuela remains the primary determining factor on when and if Venezuela can play a larger role in the world oil market.

    Even if Venezuela were somehow to find its way free of sanctions, the road back to higher production will require massive capital investment. Venezuela, which produced over 3 million barrels in day in the 1970s, is now at only 600,000 barrels per day. The authors estimate that the level of investment and amount of time required to rehabilitate the production potential of Venezuela would approach $30 billion USD in two stages:

    Stage 1 – Pre-sanctions recovery: An investment of $7-9 billion over 2-3 years to get back to production prevalent before sanctions started in 2017 (about 2 million barrels/day).

    Stage 2 – Post-recovery: An investment of an additional $20 billion/year for 2-3 years. These investments would take 4-5 years to yield additional production. This would require investment into offshore and underdeveloped onshore projects to bring them up to full production capacity. With proper investment, Venezuela can sustain a production output of approximately 2.5 million b/d over the next 20-30 years.

    The authors provide an overview of Venezuela’s production potential, and evaluate the technical obstacles that must be addressed to restore Venezuelan oil production. Their paper can be found here.

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  • EPRINC Workshop on The Transport Climate Initiative (TCI): Challenges and Opportunities

    EPRINC held a virtual workshop on The Transport Climate Initiative (TCI): Challenges and Opportunities on June 16, 2021. 
    EPRINC staff, policymakers, and regional experts explored the effectiveness of the program to meet its goals of lowering greenhouse gas (“GHG”) emissions. Among the topics discussed were how the program fits in with U.S. and international efforts to accelerate the energy transition, an assessment of the program’s impact on consumers, implementation challenges, and opportunities for green investments.   
    The Transportation and Climate Initiative (TCI) is a regional collaboration of potentially 12 Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states and the District of Columbia seeking to reduce consumption of petroleum-based fossil fuels in the transportation sector and introduce cleaner fuels and more effective transportation systems.  The list of potentially participating jurisdictions are: Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Virginia.

    The agenda for the event can be found here, the presentations that were given are here, and the full video recording of the event is here.

    A report on the event was written by Ashutosh Shastri, Senior Advisor, Global Gas Centre & Distinguished Fellow, EPRINC, and can be accessed here.

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EPRINC First Energy Security Series Virtual Workshop: Energy Security and the North American Oil & Gas Production Platform

EPRINC has hosted the first virtual workshop in its new Energy Security Series series, entitled “Energy Security and the North American Oil & Gas Production Platform.” The recording of the workshop available here.

Initiatives to limit U.S. oil and gas production can be expected in the near future. Are these policy initiatives effective measures to accelerate the energy transition and do they conflict with long-standing measures to sustain American energy security?  

EPRINC staff and fellows Ivan Sandrea, Jeff Kissel, Max Pyziur, Michael Lynch, Larry Goldstein, Carmine Difiglio, Glen Sweetnam, and Lucian Pugliaresi as well as Aaron Annabel from the Canadian Embassy, Trisha Curtis (EPRINC fellow, PetroNerds), and Fred Hutchison from LNG Allies provided presentations and commentary on this important topic. Their presentations can be found here. The agenda for the event can be found here.

Emily Medina on the Future of the U.S.-Mexico Energy Relationship

EPRINC Fellow Emily Medina has published another piece on Mexican public policy and energy economics. This paper, entitled “The U.S.-Mexico Energy Relationship Going Forward,” examines the future of the relationship between the two countries focusing on bilateral energy integration, Mexico’s new nationalist policies, and the incoming Biden administration while keeping the geopolitics of the world in mind. The paper can be found here.

The piece has been published by Mexico Today, an English-language news service by the newspaper Reforma.

IEEJ and EPRINC Co-Host Virtual Workshop: The Role Of LNG In A Carbon-Constrained Market

The Institute of Energy Economics Japan (IEEJ) and the Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc. (EPRINC) jointly hosted a virtual workshop, “The Role of LNG in a Carbon-Constrained Market” on December 15, 2020, 7:00 pm – 9:00 pm (Washington, D.C. – EST); December 16, 2020, 9:00 am – 11:00 am (Tokyo – JST).

This workshop was part of an ongoing cooperative program between IEEJ and EPRINC to explore the potential for LNG to meet rising energy demand and growing requirements for decarbonization in Asian markets. Japanese and U.S. energy research experts, senior representatives from U.S. and Japanese companies, officials from the Japanese Ministry of Economics, Trade, and Industry, and others came together for a discussion on policy and technology developments needed to address the challenges and opportunities for LNG as Asia’s growing energy consuming centers search for efforts to restrain carbon emissions and sustain economic growth.

The workshop agenda can be found here. The workshop was recorded and is accessible at this link using passcode: ?#?@s8cS

There were some excellent presentations given at the workshop, which can be downloaded here. In addition, EPRINC’s Max Pyziur provided all participants with a scene-setting presentation that is accessible here.

Coal in the Asian Power Market IEEJ/EPRINC Virtual Workshop

The Institute of Energy Economics Japan (IEEJ) and the Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc. (EPRINC) have jointly hosted a virtual workshop, “Coal in the Asian Power Market: A Discussion on the Potential for LNG and Decarbonization Technologies to Address Rising Carbon Emissions” on November 5, 2020.

This workshop was part of an ongoing cooperative program between IEEJ and EPRINC to explore the potential for LNG to meet rising energy demand and growing requirements for decarbonization in Asian markets.
This virtual workshop included presentations on future prospects for coal use in China, India, Japan, and other Asian countries. The workshop examined the potential for lowering carbon emissions through greater use of LNG and carbon capture technologies. Researchers from IEEJ, EPRINC, China, and industry executives participated in a timely discussion on this critical issue. The workshop was recorded is accessible here, (use passcode: +xn7.678). The agenda from the workshop is available here, and the presentations can be found here.

Lucian Pugliaresi Presents at Hellenic Association of Energy Economists

Lucian Pugliaresi participated in the annual symposium of the Hellenic Association of Energy Economists.  This year’s program examined energy transitions and the symposium was held in a virtual format from Athens, Greece between September 30 to October 2, 2020.  He presented recent EPRINC findings on proposals to prohibit the use of  hydraulic fracturing in producing oil and gas from unconventional reserves.  His presentation, The Curious Idea to Ban Hydraulic Fracturing in the U.S.  can be found here.