EPRINC’s First Webinar, “Crisis in the Oil Market: Remembrances of the Past, Policy Responses for the Future”Read More
EPRINC has produced its first webinar, entitled “Crisis in the Oil Market: Remembrances of the Past, Policy Responses for the Future.” The webinar featured a roundtable discussion from EPRINC’s staff, distinguished fellows and trustees. They examined the major forces shaping the oil market since 1973-74 Arab Oil Embargo and what we’ve learned in the interim about opportunities and strategies for the industry and policy makers going forward. One of the takeaways was that yes, the crisis in the oil patch is in many ways unprecedented, but we’ve seen this movie before.
The discussion was led by EPRINC’s president, Lucian Pugliaresi, and drew upon the knowledge base of Larry Goldstein, Michael Lynch and Ivan Sandrea. Lynch and Pugliaresi both presented some slides to facilitate the discussion, and the ones that Pugliaresi used were created by EPRINC’s Max Pyzuir. Both presentations can be found below.
Larry Goldstein is the former president of EPRINC and a co-founder of Petroleum Industry Research Associates in New York City. Michael Lynch is a Distinguished Fellow at the Energy Policy Research Foundation and President of Strategic Energy and Economic Research. Ivan Sandrea is former CEO of Sierra Oil and Gas, a Mexican independent oil and gas company. Prior to becoming CEO of Sierra, Ivan held a number of leadership and technical positions, including senior partner at EY London, where he was responsible for global oil and gas in emerging markets, and president at Energy Intelligence.
If you missed the webinar, it has been recorded and is available “on demand” by clicking here.
EPRINC’s Lucian Pugliaresi and Larry Goldstein Publish a Commentary on Policy Responses to the Current Crisis in the World Oil Market in Real Clear EnergyRead More
EPRINC President Lucian Pugliaresi and former EPRINC President Larry Goldstein have written a piece for Real Clear Energy entitled “Oil Quotas and Import Fees? No, Get America Back to Work.” In this piece, they examine the current issues in petroleum in light of the COVID-19 pandemic, as demand destruction coincides with an oversupplied market. They write about their concerns with oil quotas and import fees as realistic solutions to this issue, and provide their thoughts on a possible solution. Click here to read their article.
Barclays Bank and EPRINC Host Discussion on Fracking BanRead More
On February 13, 2020 in NYC, Barclays Bank and EPRINC hosted a discussion on U.S. petroleum policy with the investment community and public sector participants. EPRINC Distinguished fellow Michael Lynch presented his findings on the implications of a fracking ban on US production and energy security. EPRINC Distinguished Fellow Trisha Curtis updated the attendees on recent productivity trends in unconventional (shale) oil and gas production in the U.S. Lucian Pugliaresi, EPRINC’s President, moderated the discussion.
Ahead of the 2020 U.S. Presidential elections, several Democratic candidates have been endorsing policies that, to various degrees, would restrict hydraulic fracturing (HF), a drilling technique that has been largely responsible for the rapid expansion of U.S. oil and gas production. The consequences of such a policy initiative have been evaluated and published by EPRINC. The report was authored by Michael Lynch and can be found here and his presentation slides from the event are available here. Trisha Curtis’ slide presentation can be found here.
EPRINC would like to thank Harry Mateer of Barclays and Paul Tice of Schroeders for organizing and coordinating this event.
The Impact of a Fracking Ban on Shale Production and the Economy by Michael LynchRead More
Oil and gas production from the U.S. petroleum resource base has experienced an unprecedented expansion in output which has now positioned the U.S. as the world’s largest oil and gas producer. The North American petroleum production platform is soon to become a net oil and gas exporter to the world market. This rapid expansion in oil and gas production has enhanced U.S. energy security, provided greater stability to the world oil market, and conveyed sustained economic benefits to the national economy. The expansion in output has been possible through a series of advances in extraction technology including the use of hydraulic fracturing which permits oil and gas production from so-called source rock.
Concerns over carbon emissions from sustained increases in domestic oil and gas production has now been reflected in the 2020 Presidential race, with some candidates and many public interest groups calling for an end to hydraulic fracturing. Operationally, these initiatives would include a ban on oil and gas development on public lands, prohibition of new infrastructure, such as pipelines, export terminals and even refineries. This effort, championed by several Democratic candidates for President would include features of so-called Green New Deal (GND) to quickly move that national energy complex to a fully renewable fuel system.
In this paper, EPRINC fellow, Michael Lynch, explores the economic consequences of policies aimed at severely reducing U.S. oil and gas production. Such an estimate is important because whatever the merits (benefits) from reducing carbon emissions through oil and gas production constraints, policy makers will have to confront the costs and public acceptance of such a policy.
EPRINC Background Note: Outline of NaftoHaz/ GazProm Issues Ahead of 12/31/2019 Transit Agreement ExpirationRead More
EPRINC’s Max Pyziur has created a note describing the background information behind the NaftoHaz/GazProm issues, specifically ahead of the 12/31/2019 transit agreement expiration. This work was penned in December 2019 just before that expiration date.
Mexico is an essential piece of the North American petroleum production platform, and Mexico’s oil and gas reserves and production are at a critical crossroads. Oil reserves would be exhausted in ten years and gas reserves in six without massive new capital commitments. Of a total of 465 oil fields discovered, today a handful of ten currently account for nearly two-thirds of all domestic production; likewise, of the 700-plus gas fields discovered, ten account for almost half of all gas production.
The energy reform measures implemented in Mexico over the last few years, also known as the New Energy Model, offer considerable potential to lift oil and gas production, increase employment and deliver technological advances, and additional revenues for Mexico’s federal, state, and local governments. The New Energy Model has brought new investment into Mexico’s petroleum provinces, and there has been significant investment in seismic surveys and commitments for new wells. This expanded activity in the petroleum sector, entirely from private investment, has led to new discoveries.
Mexico’s new president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (often referred to as AMLO), has expressed skepticism towards the energy reforms of the previous administration and has halted most initiatives to bring new private capital into the development of Mexico’s oil and gas resources. Although Mexico has not had a full public debate on all aspects of AMLO’s criticism of the New Energy Model, this EPRINC assessment demonstrates that without massive new commitments of capital for petroleum development, Mexico’s oil and gas future is grim.
The Spanish-language version of the assessment can be found here.
EPRINC’s Lucian Pugliaresi and Max Pyziur have crafted an op-ed that was published in InsideSources in response to a study published by the Renewable Fuels Association that was written by Philip Verleger which stated that the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) has lowered U.S. gasoline prices. According to EPRINC’s analysis of the RFS, the problem with U.S. fuels policy is not ethanol, but the RFS mandate. And that is what drives the cost of transportation fuels up, not down as Philip Verleger contends.
The prospect for conflict in the Middle East, pending collapse of production in Venezuela, and turmoil in North Africa all remind us the world oil market still faces substantial threats of disruption. The North American petroleum renaissance, which has lifted U.S. oil production to the point where net exports are rapidly moving into positive territory, has also opened opportunities for Congress to sell off a substantial volume of strategic stocks to fund a range of domestic programs. EPRINC has argued that while some adjustments to the reserve size may be justified, on balance, it still plays a critical role in the security of the United States and decisions on the size of the SPR should take the long view. The SPR remains an important strategic asset.
Given the current geopolitical environment, we are highlighting some previous EPRINC papers published on this topic. In addition, our friend and colleague, Dr. Carmine Difiglio, has shared with us his insightful analysis of the value of strategic stocks in sustaining economic growth. Professor Difiglio, formerly with the U.S. Department of Energy, is Director of the Istanbul International Center for Energy and Climate (IICEC) at Sabanci Univerity.
For links to the reports on the SPR, click here
John Shages, former Deputy Assistant Secretary for Strategic Reserves, writes on Policy Challenges in Managing the Nation’s Strategic Oil Stock (July 2014).
For access to the report, click here
Lucian Pugliaresi of EPRINC and Fred Beach of UT, Austin debate the value of the SPR in the Wall Street Journal (November 2015).
For access to the report, click here
Larry Goldstein and Lucian Pugliaresi of EPRINC comment on Congress’s initiative to fund health care by reducing the size of the SPR in Politico (July 2015)
For access to the report, click here
Carmine Difiglio’s extensive analysis of the negative consequences of world economic growth from oil supply disruptions. Oil, economic growth and strategic petroleum stocks, Energy Strategy Reviews (2014).
For access to the report, click here
Michael Lynch, EPRINC Distinguished Fellow and President of Strategic Energy and Economic Research, Inc. presents a retrospective on the 1979 oil disruption and the role uncertainty and hoarding can play is amplifying the cost of an oil supply disruption. The article was recently published in Forbes and can be found here
EPRINC is excited to announce the addition of Rafael Sandrea as a Distinguished Fellow. Rafael is President of IPC Petroleum Consultants, Inc., a Tulsa based international petroleum consulting firm which specializes in oil and gas reserves appraisals and risk analysis for international upstream petroleum investments. He is very active giving Webinars, Masterclasses online, and speaking on the themes of reserves, IOR/EOR, shale oil and gas assessment, and global oil & gas supply, around the world. More of Rafael’s background can be found here.