• “With Global Oil Demand on the Rebound, What About Supply?” By Rafael Sandrea

    EPRINC’s Rafael Sandrea has published another paper, this one entitled “With Global Oil Demand on the Rebound, What About Supply?” The piece analyzes the impact of COVID-19 and the Texas Freeze on global oil demand and supply. Rafael also examines future oil supplies moving forward into 2021 by discussing trends in exploration and providing fresh comparative economics regarding oil supply vs. renewables. 

     

    Rafael’s paper can be found here.

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    The Pandemic and the End of Oil? The Pandemic, Peak Oil Demand, and the Oil Industry – By Michael Lynch and Ivan Sandrea

    Recent months have seen a growing crescendo of claims that a peak in oil demand may be near, or even be past. Pandemic-related changes in behavior such as working from home are predicted to persist after the emergency ends, and advances in technology are said to make oil-fueled vehicles increasingly obsolete. Michael Lynch and Ivan Sandrea have examined these arguments in a new study by the Energy Policy Research Foundation and found strong reasons for skepticism. People in post-pandemic China do not show major changes in their behavior and the increasing demand globally for SUVs implies consumers are not focused on reducing emissions. Further, battery electric vehicles perform significantly worse than internal combustion engines in key metrics, whereas the previous transition, from horses to cars, was due to major improvements in range, speed and carrying capacity, as well as convenience.

    The primary findings:

    • Many of the forecasts are aspirational rather than predictive, that is, describing what needs to happen to achieve climate goals not what is likely to happen;
    • Forecasters too often presume transient market events like the pandemic will have permanent effects;
    • Consumer behavior generally shows little desire for sustainable practices;
    • The capability of electric vehicles is being exaggerated and their shortcomings downplayed; and
    • Past transitions do not suggest a peak and a decline in oil demand is likely.

    The case for a near-term peak in oil demand is certainly more plausible than that of peak oil supply, but its popularity reflects a degree of exuberance that is not warranted by the data.

    Click here to access the paper on this topic written by primary author Michael Lynch, Distinguished Fellow with EPRINC and the author of The Peak Oil Scare and the Coming Oil Flood (Praeger 2016), and Ivan Sandrea, trustee of EPRINC and the former CEO and founder of Sierra Oil and Gas.

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  • EPRINC’s First Webinar, “Crisis in the Oil Market: Remembrances of the Past, Policy Responses for the Future”

    EPRINC has produced its first webinar, entitled “Crisis in the Oil Market: Remembrances of the Past, Policy Responses for the Future.” The webinar featured a roundtable discussion from EPRINC’s staff, distinguished fellows and trustees. They examined the major forces shaping the oil market since 1973-74 Arab Oil Embargo and what we’ve learned in the interim about opportunities and strategies for the industry and policy makers going forward. One of the takeaways was that yes, the crisis in the oil patch is in many ways unprecedented, but we’ve seen this movie before.

    The discussion was led by EPRINC’s president, Lucian Pugliaresi, and drew upon the knowledge base of Larry Goldstein, Michael Lynch and Ivan Sandrea. Lynch and Pugliaresi both presented some slides to facilitate the discussion, and the ones that Pugliaresi used were created by EPRINC’s Max Pyzuir. Both presentations can be found below.

    Larry Goldstein is the former president of EPRINC and a co-founder of Petroleum Industry Research Associates in New York City. Michael Lynch is a Distinguished Fellow at the Energy Policy Research Foundation and President of Strategic Energy and Economic Research. Ivan Sandrea is former CEO of Sierra Oil and Gas, a Mexican independent oil and gas company. Prior to becoming CEO of Sierra, Ivan held a number of leadership and technical positions, including senior partner at EY London, where he was responsible for global oil and gas in emerging markets, and president at Energy Intelligence.

    If you missed the webinar, it has been recorded and is available “on demand” by clicking here.

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  • EPRINC’s Lucian Pugliaresi and Larry Goldstein Publish a Commentary on Policy Responses to the Current Crisis in the World Oil Market in Real Clear Energy

    EPRINC President Lucian Pugliaresi and former EPRINC President Larry Goldstein have written a piece for Real Clear Energy entitled “Oil Quotas and Import Fees? No, Get America Back to Work.” In this piece, they examine the current issues in petroleum in light of the COVID-19 pandemic, as demand destruction coincides with an oversupplied market. They write about their concerns with oil quotas and import fees as realistic solutions to this issue, and provide their thoughts on a possible solution. Click here to read their article.

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  • Barclays Bank and EPRINC Host Discussion on Fracking Ban

    On February 13, 2020 in NYC, Barclays Bank and EPRINC hosted a discussion on U.S. petroleum policy  with the  investment community and public sector participants.  EPRINC Distinguished fellow Michael Lynch presented  his findings on the implications of a fracking ban on US production and energy security. EPRINC Distinguished Fellow Trisha Curtis updated the attendees on recent productivity trends in unconventional (shale) oil and gas production in the U.S. Lucian Pugliaresi, EPRINC’s President, moderated the discussion.

    Ahead of the 2020 U.S. Presidential elections, several Democratic candidates have been endorsing policies that, to various degrees, would restrict hydraulic fracturing (HF), a drilling technique that has been largely responsible for the rapid expansion of U.S. oil and gas production. The consequences of such a policy initiative have been evaluated and published by EPRINC. The report was authored by Michael Lynch and can be found here and his presentation slides from the event are available here. Trisha Curtis’ slide presentation can be found here.

    EPRINC would like to thank Harry Mateer of Barclays and Paul Tice of Schroeders for organizing and coordinating this event.

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EPRINC Hosts Virtual Workshop: There Will Be Oil

On Tuesday, July 7, 2020, EPRINC hosted another virtual workshop in its series on COVID-19 and the Future of Oil and Gas. This workshop was titled “There Will Be Oil,” and the topics covered prospects for recovery for U.S. oil production and world petroleum demand. The discussion examined the nature and timing of U.S. oil production recovery and petroleum demand outlook as the world economies emerge from COVID-19 lockdowns. The presenters at the workshop were EPRINC Distinguished Fellows Trisha Curtis (co-founder, PetroNerds), Ash Shastri (founder, EnerStrat Consulting), and Michael Lynch (President Strategic Energy and Economic Research), EPRINC President Lucian Pugliaresi, and EPRINC’s newest Distinguished Fellow, Glen Sweetnam. As always, workshop participants will also be able to pose questions during the event. A recording of the workshop can be accessed after registering here, and the presentations can be found below.

EPRINC’s First Webinar, “Crisis in the Oil Market: Remembrances of the Past, Policy Responses for the Future”

EPRINC has produced its first webinar, entitled “Crisis in the Oil Market: Remembrances of the Past, Policy Responses for the Future.” The webinar featured a roundtable discussion from EPRINC’s staff, distinguished fellows and trustees. They examined the major forces shaping the oil market since 1973-74 Arab Oil Embargo and what we’ve learned in the interim about opportunities and strategies for the industry and policy makers going forward. One of the takeaways was that yes, the crisis in the oil patch is in many ways unprecedented, but we’ve seen this movie before.

The discussion was led by EPRINC’s president, Lucian Pugliaresi, and drew upon the knowledge base of Larry Goldstein, Michael Lynch and Ivan Sandrea. Lynch and Pugliaresi both presented some slides to facilitate the discussion, and the ones that Pugliaresi used were created by EPRINC’s Max Pyzuir. Both presentations can be found below.

Larry Goldstein is the former president of EPRINC and a co-founder of Petroleum Industry Research Associates in New York City. Michael Lynch is a Distinguished Fellow at the Energy Policy Research Foundation and President of Strategic Energy and Economic Research. Ivan Sandrea is former CEO of Sierra Oil and Gas, a Mexican independent oil and gas company. Prior to becoming CEO of Sierra, Ivan held a number of leadership and technical positions, including senior partner at EY London, where he was responsible for global oil and gas in emerging markets, and president at Energy Intelligence.

If you missed the webinar, it has been recorded and is available “on demand” by clicking here.

EPRINC’s Lucian Pugliaresi and Larry Goldstein Publish a Commentary on Policy Responses to the Current Crisis in the World Oil Market in Real Clear Energy

EPRINC President Lucian Pugliaresi and former EPRINC President Larry Goldstein have written a piece for Real Clear Energy entitled “Oil Quotas and Import Fees? No, Get America Back to Work.” In this piece, they examine the current issues in petroleum in light of the COVID-19 pandemic, as demand destruction coincides with an oversupplied market. They write about their concerns with oil quotas and import fees as realistic solutions to this issue, and provide their thoughts on a possible solution. Click here to read their article.

Regulatory Reform: The National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA)

On January 10, 2020, the Trump Administration proposed a series of regulatory reforms to streamline compliance with the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA).  For the uninitiated, the  purpose of NEPA is to ensure that environmental factors are weighted equally when compared to other factors in the decision making process for so-called major actions undertaken by federal agencies. 

From the concerns raised by critics in the environmental community, one might conclude that this is a rushed and nefarious initiative  to “gut” environmental reviews. In contrast, critics of the NEPA process point to a  vast number of  projects from the construction of new roads to approval of pipelines that remain tied up in judicial reviews which often have little to do with the merits of the projects.

If you need a reminder that concerns over the NEPA process has been with us for some time, we refer you to “EIS’s vs. the Real World,”  published in the Public Interest by Professor Gene Bardach and EPRINC’s Lucian Pugliaresi back in 1977.  EIS writers at the time, the authors   point out that  the Bureau of Land Management’s agreement to prepare 212 EIS’s in connection with capital investments in rangelands cost in excess of $100 million (ten times the annual budget for the investments themselves during an average year in the early 1970’s). You can find their article here.

Barclays Bank and EPRINC Host Discussion on Fracking Ban

On February 13, 2020 in NYC, Barclays Bank and EPRINC hosted a discussion on U.S. petroleum policy  with the  investment community and public sector participants.  EPRINC Distinguished fellow Michael Lynch presented  his findings on the implications of a fracking ban on US production and energy security. EPRINC Distinguished Fellow Trisha Curtis updated the attendees on recent productivity trends in unconventional (shale) oil and gas production in the U.S. Lucian Pugliaresi, EPRINC’s President, moderated the discussion.

Ahead of the 2020 U.S. Presidential elections, several Democratic candidates have been endorsing policies that, to various degrees, would restrict hydraulic fracturing (HF), a drilling technique that has been largely responsible for the rapid expansion of U.S. oil and gas production. The consequences of such a policy initiative have been evaluated and published by EPRINC. The report was authored by Michael Lynch and can be found here and his presentation slides from the event are available here. Trisha Curtis’ slide presentation can be found here.

EPRINC would like to thank Harry Mateer of Barclays and Paul Tice of Schroeders for organizing and coordinating this event.

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