The chart tracks Iranian petroleum exports across successive U.S. sanctions regimes. Following two decades of constraints, the Obama administration’s 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) eased enforcement against Iranian petroleum production and exports in exchange for limits on nuclear development, giving Iran latitude to expand output. After the Trump administration withdrew from the agreement in 2018 and reverted to stringent enforcement, exports fell from a peak of 2.8 million barrels per day (bpd) to 680 thousand bpd by mid-2020. Since then, shifting sanctions regimes, lax enforcement, and skillful evasion have driven a resurgence, with exports most recently reaching roughly 2.0 million bpd.

The composition of Iran’s customer base has also shifted. Before the 2018 U.S. actions, Iran shipped to multiple destinations including Syria, Korea, India, Turkey, and Japan, with China purchasing 30% to 50% of exports. Through sanction evasion, China has since become the dominant buyer, absorbing 75% to 95% of Iran’s total exports during 2023 through 2025.

Iranian petroleum trades at a discount of roughly $2 to $4 per barrel to Brent crude. On that basis, imputed 2025 export revenues are estimated at $41 billion, up from a low of $15 billion in 2020. According to EPRINC Research Director Max Pyziur, this revenue enables Iran’s leadership and paramilitary to engage in domestic oppression and regional military aggression.

U.S. sanctions targeting Iran’s energy sector began with Congressional action in 1992 and were broadened in 1996, then expanded again in 2010 following Iran’s disputed 2009 presidential elections. The 2015 JCPOA greatly eased that enforcement before the Trump administration’s 2018 withdrawal and additional 2019 measures. The Biden administration sought to revive the agreement in 2021, but negotiations broke down in mid-2022; Iran’s crackdown on domestic protests and its transfer of weaponry to Russia for use in Ukraine, alongside the prospect of extensive Congressional review, foreclosed any rationale for reinstatement.

Further reading: Congressional Research Service, U.S. Sanctions on Iran (updated August 7, 2024) and The Economist, “Inside the secret oil trade that funds Iran’s wars” (October 19, 2024).

For more information on this chart, please contact Max Pyziur (maxp@eprinc.org).

From the EPRINC Chart of the Week archive.