“Shifting Oil Industry Structure and Energy Security Under Investment Phase-Outs” by Michael Lynch

The International Energy Agency (IEA), a collection of member countries formed in the 1970s to secure the energy security of the advanced Western democracies, is now calling for a halt to the development of new oil and gas resources as a fundamental strategy for addressing the threats from climate change.  The halt in development is viewed by the IEA as essential for the world to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050. Michael Lynch, Distinguished Fellow at the Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc. (EPRINC) points out the risks of such a strategy in his paper entitled Shifting Oil Industry Structure and Energy Security Under Investment Phase-Outs.  Since only private oil companies in the West are likely to respond, future oil supply probably would be dominated by Middle Eastern and Russian oil companies, mostly state-owned. Such a policy initiative, if successfully implemented, will see OPEC and allied producers (OPEC+) share of the world oil market supply rise to over 80% by 2040, degrading global energy security and severely limited the capability of the IEA to implement its Emergency Sharing System in the case of an oil crisis. The publication can be found here.

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